Economic Impacts of Salinity in the Central Valley Sacramento Regional Water Quality Control Board State Water Resources Control Board

Josué Medellin-Azuara Nancy Lee Gerald Horner Richard Howitt Resource Economist, University of California, Davis Jonathan Kaplan Economist, California State University, Sacramento Doug Larson Duncan MacEwan Graduate Assistant, University of California, Davis Josué Medellin-Azuara Post Doctoral Researcher, University of California, Davis Nancy Lee Consulting Economist, Amherst Gerald Horner Economist, State Water Resources Control Board

Direct Economic Effects Non-market Economic Effects Objective Economic Impacts of Salinity Accumulations in the Central Valley to 2030 Geographic Scope Major Central Valley Watersheds State Economic Scope General Equilibrium Direct Economic Effects Major Sectors Non-market Economic Effects

Estimate the Economic Effects of Salinity in the Central Valley to 2030 Assuming: Current Policy Parameters Environmental Development-Water and Land Use Economic International Existing Hydrogeology No Specific Constituent Analysis One Year Project

Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board

Sacramento River Basin San Joaquin River Basin Tulare Lake Basin

Friant Kern Canal

Delta-Mendota Canal

Sacramento Basin REMI Model County Configuration

Relative change in the shallow groundwater table (0. 46 - 0 Relative change in the shallow groundwater table (0.46 - 0.58% /pa-- Shoups 2004).

Saline Affected Areas (DWR 2001)

Central Valley Production Model (19 Cells)

Baseline Annual Animal Numbers by Basin Dairy Hog Cattle Broiler Layer Sacramento River 36,014 6,270 51,228 130,690 21,347 San Joaquin River 623,896 5,138 67,246 4,156,572 8,618,585 Tulare 843,750 8,290 49,005 14,005,610 13,257 Total 1,503,660 19,698 167,479 18,292,871 8,653,189

Total Economic Impacts Output Gross Regional Product Income Employment Population Labor Force

California: -2.148

Decrease in Manufacturing Output: 2030 (Bil 2000$) Area Basin Region State Sacramento $0.030 ----- San Joaquin $0.069 Tulare $0.063 Total Central Valley $0.162 Rest of California $0.203 California $0.365

Rest of California

Central Valley

Tulare Lake Basin

San Joaquin River Basin

Sacramento River Basin