HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY Briefing to the Legislative Council Panel on Financial Affairs 8 November 2007

2 Updates on –Currency Stability –Banking –Financial Infrastructure –Hong Kong as an International Financial Centre –Exchange Fund DISCUSSION TOPICS

3 Sub-prime crisis Monetary and financial conditions on the Mainland Inflation FACTORS AFFECTING CURRENCY STABILITY

4 SUB-PRIME CRISIS Financial innovation and securitisation of the mortgage market Low-interest-rate environment and search-for-yield behaviour led to rapid development for sub-prime mortgage-backed securities Risks transferred through securitization has –distorted relationship between risks and return –weakened lending standards Through securitisation and other innovative means, sub-prime mortgage became highly-rated asset-backed securities, or structured products

5 SUB-PRIME CRISIS A Cooling US Housing Market Since Mid-2005

6 SUB-PRIME CRISIS Sharp Rises in Defaults and Foreclosures Note: FRMs and ARMs refer to fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages respectively. Mortgage delinquency rates Mortgage foreclosure rates

7 Rising credit spread SUB-PRIME CRISIS The contagion spread to the credit market in general, and induced high equity-market volatility

8 SUB-PRIME CRISIS Money markets have experienced a drying up of liquidity, higher term premiums and a sharp drop in activities Interbank market interest rates in the US and the euro area Change of commercial paper outstanding in the US

9 CENTRAL BANKS IN ACTION Major central banks have injected liquidity, and either cut the policy rate or kept it on hold. Policy Rates in the US and the euro area

10 IMPACT OF THE SUB-PRIME PROBLEM ON HONG KONG Financial markets have been more volatile but no systematic problem emerges No sub-prime mortgage lending by banks in Hong Kong Individual banks may suffer from their investment in asset-backed securities, but unlikely to cause problem to their financial soundness Interest rate adjustment less than that in the US

11 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ON THE MAINLAND Expansion of Balance of Payments surplus Appreciation of the renminbi Continued capital inflow, and rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves Continued rising of reserves requirement of the banking sector Issuance of large amount of PBoC papers to sterilize excess liquidity created by the acquisition of foreign reserves

12 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ON THE MAINLAND Rising inflation Raising interest rates to curb inflation Implementation of policy to encourage outflow of capital in an orderly way Large demand for investment instruments by the non- state sector Development of capital markets against the background of supply-and-demand imbalance

13 HONG KONG DOLLAR HAS STRENGTHENED Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate

14 Hong Kong Dollar Spot and 12-month Forward HONG KONG DOLLAR – MARKET EXPECTATIONS

15 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HONG KONG DOLLAR INTEREST RATES AND EXCHANGE RATES

16 HKMA operations within the Convertibility Zone Short-dated Hong Kong dollar interest rates above the US rates owing to liquidity demand associated with IPOs Hong Kong dollar near strong-side Convertibility Undertaking of Active market operation conducted on 23 October to normalise the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates Subsequent operations were passive and done at the Convertibility Rate of

17 Aggregate Balance INTERBANK LIQUIDITY HAS INCREASED

18 HONG KONG DOLLAR AND US DOLLAR INTEREST RATES Hong Kong Dollar and US Dollar Interest Rates

19 INFLATION Mainland Food Prices are Driving up Domestic Food Prices

20 Weakening US Dollar Raises Prices of Tradable Goods INFLATION

21 PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HELPS CHECK INFLATION Productivity Growth Remains Strong

22 Key Drivers of Inflation INFLATION

23 BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Local AIs Remain Well Capitalised Period-end figures

24 BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE High Liquidity Levels

25 Higher Domestic Loan Demand BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE

26 BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Net Interest Margin Increasing Period-average figures * Annualised figure

27 BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Asset Quality Remains Sound * Annualised figure

28 BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Period-end figures Residential Mortgage Lending in Negative Equity Declined Further

29 BANKING SECTOR AUTHORIZATIONS Continuing Strong Interest in Seeking Authorization

30 MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE Oversight of the clearing and settlement systems ●All local designated systems remain in compliance with the safety and efficiency requirements of the Clearing and Settlement Systems Ordinance ●The Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) System continued to meet the criteria for designation and the issuance of certificate of finality ●Continued to provide support to the Process Review Committee. Quarterly reports covering oversight activities of the HKMA have been submitted to the Committee

31 MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE To develop Hong Kong into a regional payment and settlement hub, enhancing Hong Kong’s role and status as an international financial centre Project development –Renminbi RTGS system (launched on 18 June 2007) –Regional Cross-border Payment System (launched on 16 July 2007) –DvP link with Malaysian securities settlement system (launched on 29 October 2007) –Electronic trading platform for Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (December 2007) –Migration to SWIFTNet (Q3 2008)

32 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Strategy for development of market infrastructure –enhancing functionalities of payment systems –promoting links and usage of financial infrastructure Successful in increasing turnover of RTGS systems and links with overseas systems Will continue to adopt this strategy to further strengthen Hong Kong’s multi-currency, multi- dimensional payment and settlement platform

33 EFFICIENT OPERATION OF THE PAYMENT SYSTEM HK$ Bn

34 TREASURY MARKETS ASSOCIATION Renminbi bonds –Renminbi bond price fixing launched to increase price transparency –Documentation to facilitate repo of renminbi bonds has been published Islamic bonds –Recommendations made on Islamic bond market development in Hong Kong Foreign-exchange market –Study undertaken to consider ways to enhance competitiveness of Hong Kong’s foreign-exchange market

35 Regional co-operation, focusing on: Promotion of bond market development Monitoring of risks that may affect regional monetary and financial stability Establishing Hong Kong’s leading position and safeguarding our interest in regional financial cooperation initiatives Crisis management Mainland Co-operation Develop a “mutually-assisting, complementary and interactive” relationship with the Mainland using a five- pronged strategy to enhance Hong Kong’s status as China’s International Financial Centre Significant progress has been made recently on the implementation of the five-pronged strategy HONG KONG AS AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE

36 Five new banking sector measures were added in CEPA Supplement IV : (1)Lowering asset requirement for Hong Kong banks to acquire shareholdings in Mainland banks from US$10 billion to US$6 billion (2)Establishing a fast track for setting up branches in central western and north eastern areas and in Guangdong Province of the Mainland (3)Encouraging Hong Kong banks to set up banks in rural areas on the Mainland (4)Providing active support for Mainland banks to set up subsidiaries in Hong Kong (5)Relaxing criteria for Hong Kong banks to qualify for CEPA IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE-PRONGED STRATEGY (1) : CEPA

37 After expansion of Bank QDII scheme in May 2007, the implementation rules for securities firms, fund management companies and insurance companies were also announced The Mainland authorities is studying a pilot scheme for Mainland residents to invest directly in overseas securities. The HKMA will work with the relevant Mainland authorities and offer cooperation on supervisory and other related matters. IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE-PRONGED STRATEGY (2) : QDII and investment in Hong Kong stocks by Mainland individuals

38 The State Council endorsed in January 2007 a further expansion of renminbi business in Hong Kong. Financial institutions on the Mainland can issue renminbi bonds in Hong Kong In June 2007, the first renminbi bond in Hong Kong was successfully launched, making Hong Kong the first and only place outside the Mainland to have a renminbi bond market So far, three renminbi bonds have been issued in Hong Kong with a total issuance size of RMB10 billion. Investors’ response was encouraging. IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE-PRONGED STRATEGY (3) : Further expansion of RMB business

39 EXCHANGE FUND The Exchange Fund is not a pure investment fund The Exchange Fund Ordinance specifies the statutory objectives of the Exchange Fund –affecting the exchange value of the currency of Hong Kong –maintaining the stability and integrity of the monetary and financial systems of Hong Kong Investment of the Exchange Fund has to be consistent with the statutory objectives of the Fund It is not appropriate to compare the investment return of the Exchange Fund with that of other investment funds The proper comparison should be made between the actual return of the Exchange Fund with the return of the benchmark portfolio

40 Investment objectives of the Exchange Fund: (1)to preserve capital; (2)to ensure that the entire Monetary Base at all times will be fully backed by highly liquid US dollar- denominated securities; (3)to ensure sufficient liquidity for the purpose of maintaining monetary and financial stability; and (4)subject to (1) – (3), to achieve an investment return that will preserve the long-term purchasing power of the Fund. INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES OF THE EXCHANGE FUND

41 Benchmark Portfolio: no change –Asset mixBonds77% Equities23% –Currency mixUS dollar88% Non-US dollar12% BENCHMARK PORTFOLIO OF THE EXCHANGE FUND

42 Backing Portfolio Investment Portfolio Strategic Portfolio EXCHANGE FUND PORTFOLIOS

43 INVESTMENT INCOME (HK$ billion) Jan - Sep Full Year Gain on Hong Kong equities * Gain on other equities * Exchange gain / (loss) (19.5)8.5 Return from bonds # Investment income *Including dividends # Including interest 1 Unaudited

44 (HK$ billion) Jan - SepQ3 Q2 Q Full Year Investment income Other income Interest and other expenses(8.0)(2.8)(2.9) (2.3) (10.5) Net investment income Payment to Treasury (20.2)(6.9) (6.4) (28.9) Increase in EF accumulated surplus * Unaudited figures # The fixed rate of fee payment to Treasury for 2007 (w.e.f. 1 April 2007) is 7%. TREASURY ’ S SHARE AND INCREASE IN ACCUMULATED SURPLUS 2007*

45 (HK$ billion) At 30 Sep 2007 (Unaudited) At 31 Dec 2006 (Audited) At 31 Dec 2005 (Audited) ASSETS Deposits Debt securities Hong Kong equities Other equities Other assets Total assets 1,319.1 ====== 1,176.4 ====== 1,066.8 ====== LIABILITIES AND FUND EQUITY Certificates of Indebtedness Government-issued currency notes & coins in circulation Balance of the banking system Exchange Fund Bills and Notes Fiscal Reserves Account Other liabilities Total liabilities Accumulated surplus Total liabilities and fund equity 1,319.1 ====== 1,176.4 ====== 1,066.8 ====== EXCHANGE FUND ABRIDGED BALANCE SHEET