Why Transition Studies? Nordic-Baltic-Russian Network of Transition Studies Workshop 2006 Putting the Eastern European transitions into a wider perspective of regime change Vello Pettai, Department of Political Science, University of Tartu

A: Australia, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, New- Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain, USA B: Chile C: Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway D: Argentina, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Hungary, Uruguay E: East Germany, Poland, Portugal, Spain F: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania G: Botswana, Costa Rica, Gambia, Israel, Jamaica, Malaysia, Malta, Sri Lanka, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela H: Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, India, South-Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Turkey I: Nigeria J: Burma, Fidji, Ghana, Guyana, Indonesia, Lebanon K: Bulgaria, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mongolia, Namibia, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua New-Guinea, Romania, Senegal L: Haiti, Sudan, Suriname Democracy’s Three Waves ( Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, p. 14)

Democracy as Normative Standard History is not ‘over’ (Fukuyama), but democracy (even if only electoral) is a central international measure of political legitimacy in our era –membership in international organizations –conditionality for development aid –foreign policy priority: ‘regime change’

Political science is democracy Modern political science (e.g. ‘comparative politics’) is fundamentally concerned about democracy, its functioning and ultimately its fostering –even studies of non-democracies are just that: ‘non-democracies’, i.e. defined in relation to democracy –cultural, religious, historical essentialisms are not seen as plausible approaches to making sense of politics

Four educational & research tasks 1)what is democracy vs. other regimes? –‘regime theory’: conceptual framework of regimes –static boundaries 2)how does democracy come about? –‘regime transition theory’: causal models of regime change –dynamic models –practical advice

Four educational & research tasks 3)how to consolidate democracy? –types of consolidation –economic change –retrospective justice 4)how to compare post-communist change? –what is special about Central and Eastern Europe?

1) Regime Theory DemocracyAuthoritarianismTotalitarianism Post- Totalitarianism Sultanism Pluralism Ideology Mobilization Leadership Linz and Stepan (1996), Table 3.1

2a) Cycles of Regime Transition young democracy crisis-breakdown non-democracy liberalization democratization economic factors international influences non- democratic regime type

2b) Practical advice young democracy crisis-breakdown non-democracy liberalization democratization Opposition: -focus attn on illegitimacy -encourage disaffection, defections -cultivate generals -practice and preach non-violence -seize all chances to express oppo., including elections -develop contacts with outside world -promote unity among oppo. -be prepared quickly to fill vacuum Soft-liners: -maintain control over regime -surprise with concessions -get security services to agree to nego. principle -enhance stature and position of preferred oppo. leader -establish confidential and reliable back-channels to oppo. -secure rights for oppo. in future regime Regime & Opposition: -transition will not last: seize the opportunity -the future of both sides depends on agreement -resist more hard-line or extreme elements -your agreement will be the only alternative; hardliners and radicals can not offer anything -when in doubt. compromise Soft-liners: -secure your political base -maintain backward legitimacy -shift constuencies -be prepared for extreme moves -lead from strength -keep expectations low -encourage responsible opposition -create sense of inevitability S. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, 141-2, ,

3a) Types of Consolidation A. Schedler, “What is Democratic Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy, 1998, pp

3b) Economic challenges democracy & market economy democracy & market economy reform new democracies & market economy reform different new democracies & market economy reform

3c) Retrospective justice MEASURES legal political PLAYERS perpetrators victims judicial trials property restitution, compensation lustration recognition, memory ‘detotalitarization’ exposing collaborators truth commissions opening secret files amnesty  amnesia Adapted from: C. Offe and U. Poppe, 2005, pp. 153

4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE 1.non-democratic regime type  authoritarian vs. post-totalitarian 2.economic system  capitalism vs planned economy 3.level of economic development  weakly industrialized vs industrialized 4.class structure of society  multi-layered vs flattened

5.multiethnicity  homogeneous vs heterogenous societies 6.civil society  strong vs weak 7.the role of the masses  occasional vs decisive 8.international influences during liberalization  limited vs background setter 9.international influences during democratization  moderate vs extensive 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE

10.state identity  marginal vs liberation, independence 11.change in elites  often limited vs often very extensive 12.main tasks of democratization  regime change (+ econ. stabilization) vs (‘triple-’) transformation of society  successive vs simultaneous 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE

Other fields and foci modern European history and the Cold War transition economics anthropology of transition memory and transitional justice life stories and individual-level memory research TRANSITION STUDIES HAS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO!