What we should have learned from past experience What can we learn from Fukushima about accident management Richard Wilson Department of Physics Harvard University Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Sicily August 20 th 2011

Medical X rays Hiroshima-Nagasaki Windscale Three Mile Island Chernobyl also Multistage theories of Cancer (Sir Richard Doll)

During Medical advantage of X rays was so great It outweighed disadvantages BUT advantage could be the same but disadvantage (dose) was reduced a factor of 150 International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) and Physicists

Hiroshima-Nagasaki Then: Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC) Now: Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) UNSCEAR 100,000 or so papers Most people died of blast 5000 died or will die of excess radiation Prompt radiation What is the effect of lower dose rate? (only real study is that at Techa River)

Acute Radiation Sickness An acute dose from dose within a few days LD50: 250 to 400 Rem (2.5 Sv – 4 Sv) LD50 after blood transfusion: 350 to 600 Rems (3.5 – 6.0 Sv) (Canadian Louis Slotin, May 1946) Evacuate to avoid acute dose Chronic effect If just below acute dose 10% -20% increase of cancer probability (increasing if exposure continues)

Windscale 1957 Well known iodine cycle: Iodine drops on grass  cows eat grass  concentrate in milk  babies drink milk  concentrate in thyroid Graphite reactor caught fire. Iodine released milk impounded for 100 miles downwind no casualties

Studies on Stress are not definitive 5% increase of cancer probability is plausible Human studies: “Handbook of psychophysiology” By John T. Cacioppo, Louis G. Tassinary, Gary G. Berntson. “Health effects of relocation following disaster: a systematic review of the literature” By Lori Uscher-Pine, Disasters, 33(1):1-22 (2009) Animal studies : NTP control groups “Megamouse” study

Three Mile Island Core melted but inside containment Hydrogen explosion inside containment Probably iodine came out in water as HI (no harm) Unauthorized NRC man panicked and called for evacuation Kemeny commission noted stress due to evacuation

Chernobyl Secrecy was involved: those advising not to drink milk were reprimanded Cesium 134 and 137 were and are the main culprits. Integrated dose was mostly after a few days Evacuation from Pripyat after 36 hours. Estimated dose for a Pripyat resident 5 Rems Chistalogovka was 3 days late Less than 1% strontium 90 released little plutonium

Distinction between compulsion and voluntary evacuation not clear. In USSR: “What was not forbidden was compulsory” Just before Chernobyl National Radiological Protection Board (UK) had careful report on criteria for reentry Panic in Europe (Stockholm) set rules for reentry (reindeer meat: British objected: welsh lamb, etc)

Integrate by taking peak and half width Integrated Dose at main gate through March 16 th 2-3 Rems ( Sv) Nowhere near enough for Acute Radiation Sickness TEPCO regained some control Maybe 5 5 Rems in year; less than 1% increase in cancer rate. No need to evacuate

224.9

Highest Integrated Dose about 15 Rems (0.15 Sv) (in open – 4 times less indoors) Increase in cancer probability: 1 to 2 % (more for younger, less for older) Compare to 5% x e^(+/- 1) from stress

Chairman Gregory Jaczko testimony in US Congress March 17 th 2011 Recently, the NRC made a recommendation that: Based on the available information that we have, that for a comparable situation in the United States, we would recommend an evacuation to a much larger radius than has currently been provided in Japan. As a result of this recommendation, the ambassador in Japan has issued a statement to American citizens that we believe it is appropriate to evacuate to a larger distance up to approximately 50 miles.

Should you compulsory evacuate? Should you assist a voluntary evacuation? Should you encourage sensible efforts to keep the dose down? How do you stop irresponsible comments? Gregory Jacsko on March 17 th Physicians for Social (Ir) Resposibility

What other doses are there? Calculate your own. (mine was 2.4 Rem last year - 2 CAT scans) Many actions can give anyone a dose of 1 Rem: A single chest x ray in a major hospital as late as A CAT scan today. 3 months average public dose 1/25 of what a Chernobyl clean up worker got 1/100 of an astronaut's allowed dose. About the dose I got in 1991 from a day at Chernobyl mostly inside the sarcophagus

Earthquake in Haiti 200,000 Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan 30,000 Fatal cancers from Chernobyl in next 60 years (calculated ) 4, In Belarus, Russia and Ukraine 20,000 world wide Fatal cancers calculated from Natural Background (including medical) exposures in US 6,000 per year Cancer fatalities from Three Mile Island 0.7 calculated for the Kemeny Commission “0 - 5,000 adverse health effects of evacuation” from Fukushima.