Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Overview of the JI Market Olga Gassan-zade Point Carbon November 14, Nairobi

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets About Point Carbon Founded in 2000 Focus: carbon, power and gas markets Analysis, forecasting and news for all market segments Risk management and advisory services 90+ employees Oslo (HQ), Kyiv, London, Washington, Brussels, Zurich, Tokyo 12,000+ subscribers

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Market Activity Forecast

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Overview of JI Activities CDMJI # Projects/ transaction s Total volume (MtCO2e) # Projects/ transactions Total volume (MtCO2e) Projects (total) 3,3182, Projects (PDD) 1,5091, Transactions ,7

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Closing Prices, H Contract category CDM (€/t)JI (€/t) 1. VERs in case of no CERs/ERUs Standard off take, non-firm volume, Firm volume, with preconditions Guaranteed delivery, no preconditions16-18n.a

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Buyers on JI Market Unknown, 1% Private 25% Governments 64% Funds 10%

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Project Types, CDM and JI 18% 27% 4% 39% 12% Energy Efficiency 15% 34% Industrial 18% Renewable 24% Waste 8% LULUCF 1% Fugitive 19% 2% 5% 49% 22% 2% Fugitive 10% Industrial, 38% 19% Waste 12% 18% LULUCF 2% Other 1% Energy Efficiency Renewable CDMJI Inner circle - # of projects Outer circle - volume

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets CDM, PDDs by Volume, Mt China India Brazil Korea South Africa Mexico Argentina Nigeria Chile Thailand

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets JI PDDs by Volume, MT Germany Russian Federation Ukraine Romania Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland New Zealand Estonia Slovakia Lithuania

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets JI Country Rating Up-date: 9 October 2006 Country Rating JI (Last rating) Rating AAUs (Last rating) 1. (1)RomaniaBBB+(BBB+)B+(B) 2. (2)BulgariaBBB(BBB)B(B-) 3. (3)PolandBBB-(BBB-)CCC(CCC) 4. (4)HungaryBB(BB)CCC+(CCC) 5. (6)UkraineBB(BB-)B-(B-) 6. (5)EstoniaBB-(BB-)CC+(CC+) 7. (7)Czech Rep.B+(B+)B+(B+) 8. (8)New ZealandB(B)-(-) 9. (9)RussiaB(B-)CCC+(CCC) 10. (10)SlovakiaCCC(CCC+)B+(B)

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Recent Developments Project volumes have grown significantly in Russia and Ukraine Ukraine: 50 LoEs; Russia: 30 LoEs EU ETS has limited project activities in new MS CEEs JISC impact on the market:  Attention  Certainty  Push for Track 1  Contradictory price signals

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Outlook JI to scale down in Bulgaria and Romania due to EU ETS Animal waste management – unexplored possibility? Future of JI belongs to Russia and Ukraine New countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan?

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets Thank you for your attention! Olga Gassan-zade Point Carbon, Kiev Direct tel.: