Global shift: the rise of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Chandima Ratnayake School of Social Sciences University of Northampton ImageImage from Wikipedia, CC-BY-SA

Aims and objectives: Currently, the world is dominated by influences originating from nations such as USA and Europe but in recent years there have been significant amounts of growth for countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs). With these aspects in mind, the aims and objectives for this topic are: Will the USA ever step down from its superpower position? How much is predicted the BRICs will rise in comparison to current powerful nations? Are the BRIC countries becoming independent of the ‘north’? Will any of the BRIC countries, if not, all overtake key global players such as the USA and the EU? Will the world soon become multipolar through the rise of the BRICs starting to cause a global shift? ImageImage from Georgemcarvalho, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

China, for example, is the world's second biggest economy, and holds more than 3 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves – more than all of Europe combined. (Clark, 2013, n.p) For the first time in 150 years, the combined output of the developing world’s three leading economies—Brazil, China and India—is about equal to the combined GDP of the longstanding industrial powers of the North—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom and the United States. (Malik, 2013, p.1) About the emerging nations: Together, the four nations account for nearly 50 percent of growth and 16 percent of world economic output. They are also home to 40 percent of the world's population. (The Economic Times, 2010, n.p)

Will the USA ever step down from its superpower position? The world has been unipolar for a while but it is coming to an end. Renard (2009) argues that US global power is disappearing as it contrasts with the rise of the rest of the world. It is uncertain to say if the USA’s dominance will totally be eradicated. The question of a multipolar world has arisen due to a number of nations emerging whilst there is uncertainty of the USA and other nations from the ‘north’ will decline. Clark (2013) argues that just because the ‘south’ is rising, it does not mean the ‘north’ must decline. If there is a balance between nations globally, social issues such as health, education and money can be solved more easily. The rise of the BRICs means influencing countries around them and giving them more responsibility in facing global issues decreasing the divide. ImageImage from Georgemcarvalho, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

How much is predicted the BRICs will rise in comparison to current powerful nations? The graph shows projections that state Brazil, China and India will account for 40% of global output combined by 2050: They increased their share of world merchandise trade from 25% to 47% and their share of world output from 33% to 45% (Malik, 2013, p3). UNDP (2013), p.13 Publication licenced under the CC-BY International License

Are the BRICs becoming independent of the ‘north’? As time progresses, the BRICs appear to be more and more independent from the ‘north’. Currently developing regions have strengthened links with each other. South–south trade as a share of world merchandise trade rose from 8.1% to 26.7% whilst south-north has not made any increase or decrease in percentage. BRIC countries doing extremely well in terms of development have impacted on less developed countries economically and in terms of health. “Indian firms, for example, are supplying affordable medicines, medical equipment, and information and communications technology products and services to countries in Africa.” (p.3). ImageImage from Georgemcarvalho, Wikimedia Commons, public domain Malik (2013)

Will any of the BRIC countries, if not, all overtake key global players such as the USA and EU? Renard (2009) suggests a unipolar world where the USA is dominant is coming to an end. The figures show China is the greatest threat to the USA in terms of global GDP. The source argues that the EU should develop relationships with the BRIC countries, mainly India and China, to remain relevant globally as they continue emerge. This could also apply to the USA. Renard (2009), p.23 Permission has been granted to use the charts

Will the world soon become multipolar through the rise of the BRICs starting to cause a global shift? UNDP(2013) predicted that Brazil, India and China are extremely close to equalling their GDP to the ‘north’ The USA will not necessarily step down from being the single superpower of the world but the more progressive countries of the BRICs, India and China, may become as influential as the USA currently is.

References: Clark, H. (2013). OP-ED: The BRICS and the Rising South, Global Issues. Malik, K. (2013). The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World, United Nations Development Programme. Renard, T. (2009). A BRIC in the world: Emerging powers, Europe and the coming order. Egmont - The Royal Institute for International Relations. The Economic Times (2010). The BRICs: Locomotive of world growth. 16/news/ _1_bric-global-downturn-trillion 16/news/ _1_bric-global-downturn-trillion UNDP (2013). Human Development Report The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World. New York: UNDP. plete.pdfhttp://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_com plete.pdf ImageImage from Georgemcarvalho, Wikimedia Commons, public domain