2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011
1 Table of Contents
2 Returns by Style 2
3 Returns by Sector 3
4 U.S. Equity Indexes 4
5 S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points 5
6 Equity Scenarios: Bull, Bear and In-between 6
7 Investment Style Valuations 7
8 Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index 8
9 Earnings Estimates and Valuation Drivers 9
10 Deploying Corporate Cash 10
11 Sources of Profitability 11
12 Equity Correlations and Volatility 12
13 Economic Expansions and Recessions 13
14 Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP 14
15 Cyclical Sectors 15
16 Consumer Finances 16
17 Federal Finances
18 The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble 18
19 Employment 19
20 Job Growth, Productivity and Labor Force 20
21 Small Business 21
22 Corporate Profits 22
23 Consumer Price Index 23
24 Returns in Different Inflation Environments – 40 years 24
25 Oil and the Economy 25
26 Consumer Confidence 26
27 Fixed Income Sector Returns 27
28 Fixed Income Yields and Returns 28
29 The Federal Reserve 29
30 Credit Conditions 30
31 Treasury Yields and Inflation 31
32 Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries 32
33 High Yield Bonds 33
34 Municipal Finance 34
35 Emerging Market Debt 35
36 International Returns: Local Currency vs. U.S. Dollars 36
37 The Economic Growth Differential 37
38 Global Economic Growth 38
39 Global Monetary Policy 39
40 Global Equity Valuations – Developed Markets 40
41 Global Equity Valuations – Emerging Markets 41
42 International Economic and Demographic Data 42
43 Sovereign Debt Vulnerability 43
44 Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar 44
45 Currencies 45
46 Asset Class Returns 46
47 Correlations: 10-Years 47
48 Mutual Fund Flows 48
49 Dividend Income: Domestic and Global 49
50 Global Commodities 50
51 Gold
52 Marginal and Average Tax Rates 52
53 Historical Returns by Holding Period 53
54 Diversification and the Average Investor 54
55 Market Comebacks: Bear Markets and Intra-year Declines 55
56 Alternative Investment Returns 56
57 Corporate DB Plans and Endowments 57
58 The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since
59 Page Reference
60 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index Definitions
61 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index Definitions
62 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Definitions, Risks & Disclosures