ExoPlanet Imaging Coronagraph: ExoPIC Macintosh, Traub, Kasdin, Greene, Breckinridge, Staplefeldt, Marcy, Savransky, et al.

May and July 1 Stanford Meetings Ongoing series of science/engineering workshops Update science team on instrument design Iterate requirements Determine simulation path forward Long action list developed, being scheduled Key near-term actions –August meeting to rationalize coronagraph mask combinations Complex trade due to risk/performance; PIAA status –Polarization analysis –Fast-track PSF simulations for preliminary subtraction effort 2 1 Meeting actually at JPL

Outline 2.5 Exoplanet science with WFIRST –AFTA – Macintosh & Gaudi (discussion of the landscape post-Kepler and future) (key questions: planet formation ; planet composition; nature of small planets ; detectability of earthlike planets) (microlensing and demographics) 4

Figures by Kyana van Houten (Stanford)

Need to add JWST, JWST+TESS, AFTA discoveries, maybe GPI Consider plotting vs Teff PIAA- optimist model

Outline and sections Characterizing nearby systems introductory material need for spectra (Macintosh) need for tech maturation (Kasdin) coronagraphy concepts (Kasdiin) modeling approach (Traub) (description of the AFTA coronagraph? (TBD) And science requirements 8

Outline and sections spectra of giant planets – –Atmosphere physics –what we can learn (Marley, Greene) sub-neptune planets –Demographics –What can we learn about their atmospheres –Synergy with other missions –add more modeling (Macintosh, Meadows(?)) disk science –Basics –Disks as tracers of planets 9

Outline Mission profile and exoplanet searches (Macintosh, Traub, Savransky) –Modeling approach –Precursor observations –Search strategy –Discovery rates –Strawman mission 10

Detectable doppler planets Lines show infinite-photon contrast limit

Most detectable Doppler planets are Jupiter-mass or above

AFTA RV Exoplanet Photometric Detection Estimates RV exoplanet detections are estimated based on imaging of radial velocity planets from the current RV catalog Note 1. Two rows for contrast and # RV images columns are for cases of - Current Best Estimate: 0.4 mas RMS jitter & 1 mas star, 10x post-processing factor (slide 4) - Goal: 0.2 mas RMS jitter & 1 mas star, 30x post-processing factor (slide 5) Note 2. Spectral bands are 10% wide, centered at 450, 550, 650, 800, 950 nm ConfigurationDesign Inner working angle # RV planets, 550nm band, 6-month campaign # spectral bands per target, 6-month campaign Prime (OMC: Occulting Mask Coron.) SP HL BackupPIAA

A significant population of known RV planets will be characterizable spectroscopically or photometrically Will observe sub-Neptune size planets photometrically for the first time ever: albedos will give insight to atmospheres Detection/Characterization Capability 04/30/2014WFIRST-AFTA SDT Interim Report 14 Blue squares show known planets: known locations & orbits known star properties measured planet masses Red curves show sensitivity to smaller planets around the same host stars Dotted and dashed lines show circumstellar dust

Total completeness 15

Blind-search probability density of planet discoveries # =planets discovered This was a simulation of a 100-yr blind search Assuming Kepler radius distribution extrapolated to larger SMA

Approximate planet population predictions highlight survey uncertainty Planet category # found 3 months # found 100 yr # Doppler# predicted from Kepler scaling of Doppler Jovian1212 Saturn120 Neptune1230 Sub- Neptune Disconnect partially due to different Kepler extrapolations but also highlighting Doppler breadth and completeness Need to model to understand capabilities of blind search, Doppler cueing RV completeness study underway (Howard)

Doppler capabilities InstrumentTelescopeWLPrecisionNotes UCLESAAT 4mVis3 m/s LevyAPF 2.4mVis1-3 m/s CHIRON1.5mVis2 m/s HARPS-N3.6mVis1 m/s HRSHET 9-mVis? m/sGoal 1 m/s HARPS3.6 mVis2 m/s PEPSILBT 8 x 2Vis? m/s PFSMagellan 6.5m Vis2 m/s TullMcDonald 2.5Vis5 m/s SOPHIE2mVis5 m/s HDSSubaru 8mVis5 m/s UVESVLTVis3 m/s CRIRESVLTIR5 m/s? 18 Info from Jason Wright NOT FOR CIRCULATION

Future capabilities InstrumentTelescopeWLPrecisionNotes CARMENES3.5mNIR3 m/s? SPIROUCFHT 4mNIR1 m/s? G-CLEFGMT 25mVis<1 m/s HPFHET 9mNIR3 m/s HRSSALT 9mVis? m/s MINERVA1.4mVIS< 1 m/s CRIRES+VLT 8mNIR 5 m/s ESPRESSOVLT 8mVIS< 1 m/sGoal 0.1 m/s CODEXEELT 40mVIS< 1 m/sGoal 0.1 m/s. first light 2026? MOTHRTMT 30mVIS1 m/s 19 Info from Jason Wright NOT FOR CIRCULATION

Total completeness (depth) comparison 20 AFTA 500-star search Doppler 2000-star search

GAIA (10  as mission) - vs Doppler 21 GAIA verified to V~3. Evaluated on extended AFTA target list