Report from the PDP working group Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Thomas Jung (until 2011), Shuhei Maeda, John Methven (since 2011), Mark Rodwell (since 2011),

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Presentation transcript:

Report from the PDP working group Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Thomas Jung (until 2011), Shuhei Maeda, John Methven (since 2011), Mark Rodwell (since 2011), Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand, Heini Wernli WWRP-JSC Meeting April 2012

Main goals during last 5 years (i)Contribute to preparation and evaluation of international field experiments (ii)Raise awareness in PDP community of THORPEX research objectives and availability of datasets (iii)Support development of research projects dedicated to PDP research (iv)Establish linkage to WGNE on the issue of model uncertainties (v)Promote THORPEX through organization of summer schools, sessions at international conferences and dedicated workshops (vi)Identify key topics for future PDP research

PDP-related Workshops and Summer School Karlsruhe, May 2011: European Regional Meeting ECMWF, June 2011: Sub-seasonal prediction (with PDP WG evening meeting) Banff (Canada), July 2011: Summer school Reading, June 2012: PDP WG meeting

Banff summer school “Advanced Mathematical Methods to Study Atmospheric Dynamical Processes and Predictability” July applicants; 34 graduate students and young postdocs have been selected from all continents Lecturers: Bishop, Durran, Gauthier, Lynch, Methven, Ott, Szunyogh, Talagrand, Wernli Topics: - history of NWP - basic principles (PDEs, numerics, balance concepts, PV) - data assimilation (4Dvar, EnKF) - predictability and ensemble forecasting - probabilisitic forecasts

Banff summer school July 2011

PDP-related research projects / activities DIAMET (UK), since autumn Field experiments in 2011/2012 PANDOWAE (Germany, CH), second phase Further evaluation of T-PARC field experiment - Use of YOTC and TIGGE data sets - Field experiment „T-NAWDEX-Falcon“ in October 2012 Links to HYMEX (see presentation by V. Ducrocq) Links to WGNE (to be intensified)

DIAMET DIAbatic influences on MEsoscale structures in extratropical sTorms Geraint Vaughan, Manchester PI John Methven, Reading PI Ian Renfrew, East Anglia PI Doug Parker, Leeds PI Plus strong linkage to UK MetOffice!

DIAMET Aims To describe the structure, origin and dynamical consequences of diabatically-generated flow anomalies (on the mesoscale – e.g., fronts). To make a link between the simulation of mesoscale structure and forecasts of weather (high winds and precipitation). To investigate the implications for predictability and the skill of numerical weather prediction –Especially convection-resolving forecasts (1-2 days)

Structure of project WP A. Observation and detailed modelling Obs campaigns in Sept, Nov/Dec 2011 May, July/Aug 2012 WP C. Predictability at the mesoscale WP B. Parameterisation of physical processes

DIAMET flight summary DateIOPEvent 16 Sept1Convective band ahead of tropopause trough 20 Sept2Weak frontal waves propagating on long trailing cold front 23 Sept3Ascent along warm conveyor belt, over-riding a strong frontal wave 26 Nov4Surface fluxes 28 Nov5aDouble cold front in Atlantic 29 Nov5bVigorous cold front passage over Exeter and Chilbolton 1 Dec6Bent back warm front near Shetland + surface fluxes 5 Dec7Convection west of Scotland (non-polar low case) 8 Dec8Sting jet case over Scotland 12 Dec9Warm front case south of Ireland

IOP5: Radar + 29 hr UKV forecast

Obs: Whitworth Observatory, Manchester Very tight cold front with 4 tornados confirmed (Matthew Clark, Met Office) Pressure Dew pt Temperature Wind speed Wind direction Precipitation

DIAMET IOP-8 NOAA polar orbiting satellite Visible channel 12:35UT 8/12/11 

Wind speed (m s -1 ) to SW of cyclone centre Dropsondes NAE model forecast Point BCyclone centre

PANDOWAE: Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European sector Research group funded by German Research Foundation (DFG) since 2008; lead-PI: Sarah Jones First phase ( ) 8 PhD projects Now second phase ( ) Research themes: - Rossby waves - Diabatic processes - Ensembles

T-PARC ET of TY Jangmi: strong intensification of jetstream in TC outflow 00 UTC 30 Sept 2008 MTSAT water vapour windsLidar wind measurements Falcon trackonboard Falcon

T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Hans Schlager (DLR) Maxi Böttcher, Christian Grams, Heini Wernli (ETH) Partners within PANDOWAE research group

Focus on warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over Europe T-NAWDEX-Falcon Schäfler et al (QJRMS) - Analysis of Lidar data since 2002 for lucky encounters with WCBs - Analysis errors of humidity at low levels - Investigation of impact in forecast of WCB, cyclone structure and downstream weather Joos and Wernli 2012 (QJRMS) Detailed analysis of microphysical processes modifying PV in WCB Grams et al (QJRMS) The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric jet stream: a North Atlantic case-study

Main objectives T-NAWDEX-Falcon Lagrangian flights during vertical transport in a WCB with use of in-situ observations (H2O, selected chemical tracers) and dropsondes Perform a tracer experiment to tag air masses - release artificial tracer in boundary layer of WCB - collect tracer in WCB ascent and outflow Investigate latent heating in WCB in warm / mixed-phase cloud and compare with model simulations Time period: 1-19 October 2012 (i.e., parallel to HYMEX SOP)