Naples Bay / Rookery Bay Hydrodynamic Model Kick Off Meeting Y. Peter Sheng & Vladimir A. Paramygin Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Program University.

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Presentation transcript:

Naples Bay / Rookery Bay Hydrodynamic Model Kick Off Meeting Y. Peter Sheng & Vladimir A. Paramygin Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Program University of Florida March 31, 2014

Scope of Work TaskScopeDeliverable (weeks from start) 1Kick-off meeting to discuss methodology, deliverables, scenarios, etc. 1 2Model calibration and verification. Setup and run the model for a 2-year period 15/20 3Development of alternatives. Optimize freshwater inflows to Naples Bay and Rookery Bay 21 4Model applications. Evaluation of alternative scenarios. 28 5Parallel computing setup. 12

CH3D Model Domain

Map with Henderson Creek showing

CH3D Model Domain ProjectionUTM Zone 17, NAD 1983 Average cell size (inshore)~ 35 meters Average cell size (offshore)~ 65 meters

Model Configuration 3D model, baroclinic, with 4-8 vertical layers Forcing: Wind Tidal constituents (10 components) Rainfall Flow rates at river boundaries Tidal constituentAmplitudePhase K O P Q K M N S SA SSA

Water Level Model-Data Comparisons USGS station Gordon River NOAA station Naples, FL

Salinity Model-Data Comparison USGS station (Gordon River)

Model-Data Comparison Statistics Station NameData Typer2r2 RMSE USGS Gordon River at Rowing Club Point Near Naples, FL Water Level0.838 cm USGS Naples Bay at City Dock Near Naples, FLWater Level0.879 cm USGS Naples Bay at Gordon Pass Near Naples, FLWater Level0.906 cm Naples, FLWater Level0.936 cm USGS Gordon River at Rowing Club Point Near Naples, FL Salinity (bottom/top) ppt USGS Naples Bay at City Dock Near Naples, FL Salinity (bottom/top) ppt USGS Naples Bay at Gordon Pass Near Naples, FL Salinity (bottom/top) ppt

Additional Calibration - Data needed to reduce errors Bathymetry data – while there is a good bathymetric dataset available for the Naples Bay, the data for the Rookery Bay is rather sparse and channels may not be represented correctly in the model, thus causing incorrect flow rates through these channels. Flow rates at river boundaries – the data provided by Taylor Engineering is limited to annually averaged flows. Higher frequency (daily or hourly) flow rates at river boundaries could significantly improve results of salinity simulations. Data at GG-1 (>120 sq mi catchment and major urban area of BCB) is of particular importance. Tidal boundary conditions – two of the tidal constituents, SA and SSA, with period of 12 and 6 months, respectively, are comparable to or longer than the period of simulation. Accuracy of calibration for these constituents could have significant error. A 2-4 year simulation would be desirable to calibrate and verify these constituents.

Flow Scenarios to Determine the Desirable Diversion Strategy Current Henderson Creek diversion plan: 100 cfs will be diverted to Rookery Bay What are other alternatives? 50 cfs? 200 cfs? Should the diverted flow be a fraction of the average daily flow? What about during low flow or drought condition? Wet and dry season? What is the target (desirable) salinity range inside Naples Bay and Rookery Bay? What are the benchmark species? What are the associated target ranges? Naples Bay - Seagrass and Oyster ppt Rookery Bay - ? How are the specific target areas? The entire Naples Bay? How about short-term pulse releases? How frequent? Over what period of time? For the future – Is there a need for a real-time forecasting system to predict the need to adjust the diversion plan?

Possible Scenarios ScenarioDurationRiver Flow (Simulated/ Observed) River Flow Frequency Henderson Creek Diversion (cfs) Tidal Forcing Wind Forcing 120 YearsNSM*No 220 YearsNSM*100 cfs 3Dry YearNo 4Wet YearNo 5Dry Year100 cfs 6Wet Year100 cfs 7Dry Year10% of flow rate 8Dry Year10% of flow with minimum threshold 9Wet Year10% of flow rate *NSM - Natural System Model

Metric for Evaluation of Alternatives Specific Target Areas? Entire Naples Bay? Rookery Bay? Target Salinity Frequency (Monthly? Daily? Hourly?) and Range? Target Species? Oyster? Seagrass?