Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank

Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort

Key Message #1 ICT developments have been a major boost to African growth in last decade

ICT responsible for one percentage point per capita of additional growth in early 2000s

The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow

Fiscal revenues generated by ICT industry (via license fees and taxes) amount to 4% of GDP on average

Key Message #2 The ICT revolution is Africa’s big infrastructure success story

Population in range of GSM signal grows tenfold in less than a decade

Dramatic expansion in area served though closely following population centers

And 180 million new subscribers added, almost all of them prepaid

Key Message #3 The market alone can get Africa almost all the way to universal access

Market could viably reach 92% population, many countries currently far off this target

Market could viably reach 92% population, but in many countries falls short of potential The total investment cost of closing the coverage gap for Sub-Saharan Africa would be only US$3 billion

Most of Africa will be covered by mobile networks

Key Message #4 But the reform is not yet complete and prices for mobile services remain high

Price of mobile services in Africa many times higher than in South Asia

Most African markets could support more than three mobile operators but many have less

Key Message #5 The fixed line segment is stagnant and relatively inefficient

Modest increases in fixed line subscription, market even shrinking in South Africa

Many fixed line incumbents remain public, with low levels of efficiency

Key Message #6 In many countries, the government still owns the fixed operator

Only one country has fully privatized its telco. Half remain fully government-owned

Only one country has fully privatized the incumbent, half remain fully government-owned Public ownership of operators is a drain on public finances and creates conflict of interest within government

Key Message #7 Broadband is the next big challenge for ICT in Africa

Cost of dial-up internet access prohibitively expensive by global standards

Broadband price gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low

Key Message #8 Reforms are needed to allow broadband companies to compete

Limited capacity public internet access could be provided by market

Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market Total investment cost of closing coverage gap for public internet access in Sub-Saharan Africa would be only US$2 bn

Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market But mass-market broadband won’t be commercially viable without access to spectrum, access to infrastructure for building fiber networks and low-cost access to submarine cables

Key Message #9 Competitive access to submarine cables can slash cost of international communications

Telephone calls to US very expensive, (and intra-African calls even more so)

Countries with submarine access benefit, and those with competitive access even more so Share of countries (%) Price per minute for a call within Sub-Saharan ($) Price per minute for a call to US ($) Price for 20 hours per month of dial-up Internet access ($) No access to submarine cable Access to submarine cable Monopoly international gateway Competitive international gateways

Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly Operational July 2009 Planned July 2009

Operational July 2009 Planned July 2009 Need to have competing cables and multiple landing stations to avoid monopoly control over access to the cables Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly

Key Message #10 More terrestrial fiber-optic cable infrastructure will also be needed

Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass-market, low-cost broadband Residential/ Small business Large/Medium business PSTN + WLLMobileNarrowband Access Broadband Access PSTN + WLLNarrowband Access Broadband Access Backbone bandwidth per user (kbps)

Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited Many of them are owned by public entities – often too expensive and poor quality

Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks

Competition will drive investment into fiber on inter-city routes but not small towns and rural areas

Can combine competition on profitable routes with government support for non-viable routes Multiple competing networks on corridor routes but government network is the only fiber up-country