IRAQ FINANCE 2014 IRAQ’S ECONOMY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES Carlo Sdralevich - International Monetary Fund.

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Presentation transcript:

IRAQ FINANCE 2014 IRAQ’S ECONOMY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES Carlo Sdralevich - International Monetary Fund

 Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (2004)  Various Stand-By Arrangements ( )  Latest SBA: February 2010 – February 2013, SDR 1.1 billion  Now: Surveillance mode  Latest Article IV: July 2013  English  Arabic Iraq’s relations with IMF r/2013/cr13217.pdf bs/ft/scr/2013/cr13217a.pdf

Recent economic developments

Growth has slowed down as oil production stabilized Proj.

Inflation has remained in the low single digits

The exchange rate has been broadly stable…

… and the real effective exchange rate has appreciated

Fiscal performance is weakening Proj.

Medium term: Oil will continue to drive growth

Oil revenues will support reserves

Challenges

A rising GDP has not fully benefitted the population

Fiscal vulnerability to oil market shocks, with a high break-even price…

…and a rigid spending structure

Financial deepening is still low…

…and the financial sector is dominated by state- owned banks Source: Central Bank of Iraq.

Foreign direct investment is limited…

…reflecting a weak business environment

 Weakening policy implementation  Deterioration of political and security situation  Delays in ramping up oil production  Oil market shocks Risks

Role of policies

Fiscal policy  Build fiscal buffers in the DFI  Rationalize current spending (subsidies, wages, transfers, PDS)  Strengthen fiscal institutions and processes (chart of account, single treasury account, information and reporting systems)

Monetary and financial sector  Maintain stable exchange rate  Continue liberalization of FX market, simplify regulations, and strengthen AML/CFT regime  Maintain separate management of CBI and DFI assets  Pursue restructuring of public banks  Support development of private banks by strengthening supervision and ensuring a level playing field

Conclusions  Mixed performance in 2013  This year will be challenging - risks are high  Enormous oil potential can be maximized through good policies:  Sound fiscal management of oil revenues  Independence of CBI  Stable exchange rate

IRAQ FINANCE 2014 IRAQ’S ECONOMY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES Carlo Sdralevich - International Monetary Fund