The Canadian Census of Population: a Review in Preparation for 2016 UNECE Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses May 23, 2012

November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 2 Mandate and Scope of Review  Mandate Study options on the methodology and ultimately deliver a recommendation to the federal government for the 2016 Census program  In scope : Four components assessed and integrated into an option analysis report Legislative Content determination framework “Canadian context” Methodology  Out of scope: detailed methods, content and costing

Legislative  Decennial Census A requirement under the Canadian Constitution Act  Quinquennial census Constitution Act requires quinquennial census for the Prairie Provinces Statistics Act requires Canadian quinquennial census since 1970  Definition of a census of population November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 3

Framework  Sequential approach to assess or build census/NHS methodology options incl. content November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 4 Census Program outputs Relevance (information needs* and timeliness) Quality (accuracy, interpretability, coherence) Canadian context Respondent burden Privacy Statcan considerations Costs/efficiencies Operational factors Data Quality Incidence on other Statcan programs * External and internal needs

Consultation on uses  Feedback sought from Federal, provincial, territorial and municipal governments Aboriginal organizations Selected direct end-users and secondary distributors and 'umbrella' org. in non-profit and business sectors  Uses/data requirements Statutory, program and other requirements Topics (by order of priority) Level of geography / Sub-populations Trends Multivariate November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 5

Methodology November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 6 Necessary conditionsStatusComment 1. Public awareness and cooperation Acceptably highConfirmed in Geographic infrastructureYes 3. Stable political and socially secure environment Yes 4. High-level of literacy for self completion Yes 5. Legal and administrative framework Yes Approach 1 – traditional census A collection of data from all households on individuals, at a specific point-in- time, constitutes the spine May involve some sampling for characteristics The collection modes may vary; some data may be replaced by administrative data

Methodology November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 7 Necessary conditionsStatusComment 1. Legal basis to use administrative data, linked by identification numbers PartiallyExistence of S-13 of Statistics Act, but tedious process 2. Public understanding and approvalUnknownThere has been public reaction to 2000 Government longitudinal file, Privacy Commissioner has also expressed concerns 3. Unique PINsNoSocial Insurance Number is not universal and its usage is limited by legislation 4. Minimally, population, dwelling and business registers NoNo pop, Address Register is good but incomplete, Business Register is good but designed for business surveys 5. Incentives for the population to register and change their address No 6. Recording of dates of changes or eventsPartiallyLimited to births and deaths Approach 2 – census employing existing administrative registers A set of data first collected for administrative purposes and linked together constitutes the spine Can be supplemented by surveys (census or sample)

Methodology November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 8 Necessary conditionsStatusComment 1. Multi-year program of comprehensive planning, development and testing Not doneExperience of France and the USA valuable 2. Agreement of census stakeholdersUnknownExperience of France and the USA valuable 3. Geographic infrastructureYes 4. Several years of data required for small areas – must start in 2012 UnlikelyFor data to be available in Different form of fundingNot doneFunding would need to be developed 6. Skilled staffPartiallyStatCan has the staff, but in part busy with census/NHS at the present time Approach 3 – census employing continuous measurements A collection of data from the individuals, where all or a part of it is collected on a continuous basis May involve some sampling The collection modes may vary; some data may be replaced by administrative data

November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 9  A traditional census is the only possible option for 2016  The presence or absence of a voluntary component remains an open question until the data qualities studies are completed for the National Household Survey. Conclusion

November 1, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 10  Such a review requires a dedicated team (separate from production teams)  Requires key knowledgeable resources  Organisational buy-in is important – senior management governance  External validation is desirable  Highlighted the importance of international networks Lessons Learned

October 27, 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 11 Project contacts For more information, please contact: Julie TrépanierorMarc Hamel