Building Core Concepts with Computational Software Robert H. Carver Stonehill College Easton MA August 9, 2004

JSM Toronto Session 1542 Core Concept Candidates Population Sample Variation Observation vs. Experiment Cross-section vs. longitudinal data Comparison Standardization Probability “Random” Random sampling “Error” Sampling error Statistical control Confidence Distribution Null hypothesis Association Causation Statistical significance vs. Practical significance Power Model

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1543 Concepts for this segment Variation Statistical control Sampling Error

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1544 ASQ on Statistical Thinking All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes Variation exists in all processes Understanding and reducing variation are keys to success

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1545 A tale of continuous improvement… Wright 1904 Flyer over Huffman Prairie, Dayton OH

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1546 Wilbur Wright on Control, 1901 “This inability to balance and steer still confronts students of the flying problem…. “When this one feature has been worked out, the age of flying machines will have arrived, for all other difficulties are of minor importance.”

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1547 Variation: What’s up with that?

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1548 Mean flight velocity

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1549 Shape—velocity & distance

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Comparison: assignable cause?

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Comparison: assignable cause?

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Control & shrinking variation

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Control

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Developing a feel for Sampling Error

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session One-Sample T: Samp1, Samp2, Samp3, Samp4, Samp5, Samp6, Samp7,... Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Samp ( , ) Developing a feel for Sampling Error

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Guiding Principles Focus on reading the story in the data Rely on software to facilitate building the concepts Quick, interactive analysis to seize teachable moments Demonstration, discovery, iteration

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Sources American Statistical Association (2004). Curriculum Guidelines for Undergraduate Programs in Statistical Science. Fisher, R.A. (1966). The Design of Experiments. (New York: Hafner) Garfield, J., Hogg, R., Schau, C., & Whittinghill, D. (2000). “Best Practices in Introductory Statistics,” draft position paper prepared for JSM Hoerl, R.W. & Snee, R.D. (2002). Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance. (Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury) Jakab, P.L. & Young, R., eds. (2000). The Published Writings of Wilbur and Orville Wright. (Washington DC: Smithsonian) Kugler, C., Hagen, J. & Singer, F. (2003). “Teaching Statistical Thinking.” Journal of College Science Teaching, v32, No. 7, McCarthy, P.J. (1957). Introduction to Statistical Reasoning (New York, McGraw-Hill) Moore, D.S. (1997). Statistics: Concepts and Controversies, 4 th Ed. (New York: W.H. Freeman) Phillips, J. L. Jr. (1992). How to think about statistics. (New York: W.H. Freeman) Salsburg, D. (2002). The Lady Tasting Tea. (New York: Owl Books) Tukey, J.W. (1971). Exploratory Data Analysis. (Reading MA: Addison Wesley). U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission (2003). Flight log: Huffman prairie, Utts, J. M. )1999). Seeing Through Statistics, 2 nd Ed. (Pacific Grove CA: Duxbury) Wallis, W. A. & Roberts, H. V. (1956). Statististics: A New Approach. (New York, Free Press.) Wright Redux Association (2001). Wright history. The Wright redux association.

August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session Contact Information Robert H. Carver Dept. of Business Administration Stonehill College Easton MA Copies of slides and dataset available (after JSM) at: