Model experiments CAM4.0 was run for 10 years without any forcing at 1deg resolution - the control run (data ocean). Each of the forced experiments were.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Challenge and directions for improving GCM simulations of the monsoon Julia Slingo and Andrew Turner.
Advertisements

MJO Metrics Combined EOFs using day filtered OLR, u850, and u200 averaged between 15°N-15°S Prior to computing EOFs, each equatorially-averaged.
Unit 9: Circulation Patterns of the Atmosphere
The link between tropical convection and the Northern Hemisphere Arctic surface air temperature change on intraseaonal and interdecadal time scales Steven.
Section 5: Kelvin waves 1.Introduction 2.Shallow water theory 3.Observation 4.Representation in GCM 5.Summary.
An intraseasonal moisture nudging experiment in a tropical channel version of the WRF model: The model biases and the moisture nudging scale dependencies.
Variability of the Atlantic ITCZ Associated with Amazon Rainfall and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves Hui Wang and Rong Fu School of Earth and Atmospheric.
Potential Predictability and Extended Range Prediction of Monsoon ISO’s Prince K. Xavier Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of.
El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation
Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary
Equatorial Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis Carl J. Schreck, III University at Albany.
Significant Warm Season Precipitation Events in the Burlington, VT Region By Eyad Atallah, John Gyakum, and Margaret Kimball (McGill) Paul Sisson (NWS-BTV)
Can cyclone induced cooling offer refuge to thermally stressed corals? Adam Carrigan and Dr. Marji Puotinen.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 20 April 06 Byoung-Cheol Kim METEO 6030 Earth Climate System.
2012 TTA ICTP1 ENSO-South Asian Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton,
Using GPS data to study the tropical tropopause Bill Randel National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado “You can observe a lot by just watching”
Using a novel coupled-model framework to reduce tropical rainfall biases Nicholas Klingaman Steve Woolnough, Linda Hirons National Centre for Atmospheric.
Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Transient Eddy Fluxes and their Co-variability with the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extensions Young-Oh Kwon and Terrence.
An Analysis of the Nature of Short Term Droughts and Floods During Boreal Summer Siegfried Schubert, Hailan Wang* and Max Suarez NASA/GSFC Global Modeling.
Predictability of intraseasonal oscillatory modes and ENSO-monsoon relationship in NCEP CFS with reference to Indian & Pacific Ocean Shailendra Rai (PI)
Air-sea heat fluxes and the dynamics of intraseasonal variability Adam Sobel, Eric Maloney, Gilles Bellon, Dargan Frierson.
Modulation of eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian oscillation. (Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000: J. Climate, 13, )
Basic Meteorology Concepts. Spheres of the Earth.
Questions for Today:  What is Weather and Climate?  What are four major factors that determine Global Air Circulation?  How do Ocean Currents affect.
Sara Vieira Committee members: Dr. Peter Webster
Shuhei Maeda Climate Prediction Division
Multiscale processes in the tropics April 27- May 1, 2009, Banff Role of mean state and local air-sea interaction on the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations.
13 June, 2013 Dymecs Meeting, Reading Tropical convective organisation in the UM Chris Holloway NCAS-Climate, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading.
Part II: Where are we going? Like an ocean... The waves crash down... Introducing OCEAN ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION.
The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo.
MJO simulations under a dry environment Marcela Ulate M Advisor: Chidong Zhang (… in a Nudging World)
Albedo varies with season and geography Surface cover that has a high albedo Snow & ice Cloud cover Aerosols 
Sensitivity to precipitable water content and profile Resolution and Dynamical Core Dependence of the Statistics of Atmospheric River events in Community.
11 Predictability of Monsoons in CFS V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton, MD.
Lecture #2 Weather. Convection and Atmospheric Pressure Much of solar energy absorbed by the Earth is used to evaporate water. – Energy stored in water.
Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 17, 2005.
1 Daily modes of the South Asian monsoon variability and their relation with SST Deepthi Achuthavarier Work done with V. Krishnamurthy Acknowledgments.
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.
Data and Methods Introduction Northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability in CMIP5 models Atmospheric variability with NH mid-latitudes.
Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,
Contrasting Summer Monsoon Cold Pools South of Indian Peninsula Presented at ROMS/TOMS Asia-Pacific Workshop-2009, Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences,
On the mechanism of eastward-propagation of super cloud clusters (SCCs) over the equator – Impact of precipitation activities on climate of East Asia –
Climate Variability and Basin Scale Forcing over the North Atlantic Jim Hurrell Climate and Global Dynamics Division National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Composition/Characterstics of the Atmosphere 80% Nitrogen, 20% Oxygen- treated as a perfect gas Lower atmosphere extends up to  50 km. Lower atmosphere.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Pearson Benjamin Cummings Central Case: Charging toward cleaner air in London London has had bad.
Context: In Jan 2011 FEWS NET issued an accurate projection of food insecurity if the long rains failed, how predictable might the long rains be?
Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 27, 2006.
Extratropical Sensitivity to Tropical SST Prashant Sardeshmukh, Joe Barsugli, and Sang-Ik Shin Climate Diagnostics Center.
Assimilation of TRMM Precipitation into Reanalysis and its Impact on Tropical Divergence Fields Baek-Min Kim( 金伯珉 ) J.-H. Oh, and G.-H. Lim Seoul National.
Eric Tromeur and William B. Rossow NOAA/CREST at the City College of New York Interaction of Tropical Deep Convection with the Large-Scale Circulation.
Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 5, 2005.
1 Spatio-temporal Distribution of Latent Heating in the Southeast Asian Monsoon Region School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology.
© Crown copyright Met Office Predictability and systematic error growth in Met Office MJO predictions Ann Shelly, Nick Savage & Sean Milton, UK Met Office.
Three-Dimensional Water Vapor and Cloud Variations Associated with the MJO during Northern Hemisphere Winter By: David S. Myers and Duane E. Waliser Presented.
1 A review of CFS forecast skill for Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar and Yan Xue CPC/NCEP/NOAA.
Climate & Weather.  Weather is the day-to-day condition of Earth’s atmosphere.  Climate refers to average conditions over long periods and is defined.
Stergios Misios, Hauke Schmidt and Kleareti Tourpali
Precipitation and Latent Heating Estimation using Combined Spaceborne Radar and Microwave Radiometer Data Duane Waliser Jet Propulsion Laboratory William.
Atmospheric Precursors of Madden-Julian Oscillation During CINDY 2011
Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
Earth’s Atmosphere.
The 1997/98 ENSO event.
General Atmospheric Circulation
The 1997/98 ENSO event.
The 1997/98 ENSO event.
2.3.1(iii) Impacts of El Nino
Impacts of El Nino Observations Mechanisms for remote impacts.
Distribution of Solar Energy
Presentation transcript:

Model experiments CAM4.0 was run for 10 years without any forcing at 1deg resolution - the control run (data ocean). Each of the forced experiments were run for 135 days. 18 forced experiments with eastward moving heating and cooling signals were run - each for 10 different initial conditions : -the 31 May of each year from the control run - 10 JJAS I.C. -the 30 Nov of each year from the control run - 10 DJFM I.C. 2 forced experiments with northward moving forcing were run - each for 10 different initial conditions, 1 for each season’s I.C. 2 forced experiments with stationary forcing over the equatorial Indian Ocean were run - each for 10 different initial conditions, 1 for each season’s I.C. 6 forced experiments each with varying latitudinal extent of observed Diabatic Heating were run - each for 10 different initial conditions, 3 for each season’s I.C.

Vertical Profile: bottom heavy, middle heavy, The forced experiments with idealized signals have heating and cooling cells based on idealized MJO-like oscillations: -ellipses with Gaussian distribution (cell size 60deg lon, 10deg lat) -with middle heavy and bottom heavy vertical profiles -alternate heating and cooling signals -maxima is 1.5K/day for both the profiles reducing to almost zero at the top and bottom of the atmosphere -They cover the equatorial Indo-Pacific region

Forced Signals (Idealized) Multichannel singular spectrum (MSSA) has been used to identify the temporal variability and to determine the coherent intraseasonal space-time patterns for different variables. The 45 day period oscillation is studied, which also captures the MJO.

JJAS: Precipitation (mm/day) Observation Control_run f_rs3(45dp)

DJFM: Precipitation (mm/day) Observation Control_run f_rw3(45dp)

The JJAS season is better captured than the DJFM season by CAM4.0 as seen in the control run. The best results are seen for the 45 day period (dp) oscillation with middle heavy vertical profile, for both the JJAS and DJFM seasons. For JJAS, the 45dp forcing signal improves the anomaly band tilts. For DJFM, the 45dp forcing signal improves the eastward propagation of the anomalies and reduces the northern hemispheric anomalies. It is interesting to note that an eastward propagating forcing improves the latitudinal structure of the anomalies.