Presidential and Congressional Elections

The Nomination Process  US vs. Europe- how are they different?

The Nomination Process  US vs. Europe- how are they different?  Based on individual in US, based on organization in Europe  In the past, American parties made decisions but now almost all decision making power has devolved to the people

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  The first step- getting mentioned as being “presidential”  Do something big  Go to Iowa- why??  Generally, better to be a governor than in Congress

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  Raise money, build a staff and get volunteers  Choose your running style Insider vs. outsider Positive vs. negative Develop a theme (ex. Change) Timing Find voters who might change their votes

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  Must be nominated by your party to get your name on the ballot  Two main motivations in nominating a candidate: Appeal to a wide group of voters Make the “true believers” happy

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  In the past this was avoided because the parties chose- could pick someone electable  Delegates that chose a candidate were influential party members  Today, delegates are chosen mainly through primary elections

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  Who votes in primaries and why does this matter?

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  Who votes in primaries and why does this matter?  Usually, primary voters are adherents to the core beliefs of the party  They choose delegates who care about the issues

The Nomination Process- the Presidency  The Democrats retain some power for party members- superdelegates  Presidential candidates chosen through primaries and caucuses  Parties can shoot themselves in the foot with this process EG. Dem views on taxes/ Barry Goldwater in 1964

The General Election- the Presidency  Have to face a new audience now- the entire electorate  Poses a problem to candidates who tried to appeal to the true believers

The General Election- the Presidency  How you run is based on your position: Incumbents have to run on their records Challengers run on what they will do

The General Election- the Presidency  Take positions on position issues and valence issues Position- issue on which the public is divided Valence issues- issue on which the public is united- good economy/ less crime

The General Election- the Presidency  Get on TV- how?? Paid advertising Make the news- free!! Go on talk shows Make sure you look like a regular guy  In a general election, it is thought that paid advertising by candidates has little impact

The General Election- the Presidency  In contrast, advertising by outside groups can plant seeds of doubt about a candidate  Televised debates are a way to show a candidates mastery of the issues

Congressional Elections  No term limits so there is almost always an incumbent running  2010 and 2012 are different- why?  Generally, incumbents have a huge advantage  If possible, try to find an open seat- even if you have to move

Congressional Reelection Rates In 2010, 86.9% of incumbents running won reelection

Congressional Reelection Rates In 2010, 84% of incumbents running won reelection

Congressional Elections  House members run every two years, Senators every six  The Constitution says little about how they will be elected- nothing about districts  Initially, many states elected reps “at large”  Others had multi-member districts

Congressional Elections  Now, all have single member districts  Two problems with districts Malapportionment Gerrymandering

Congressional Elections  Four problems in determining who serves in the House Total size of house Allocating seats to the states Size of districts Shape of districts  Congress determines the first two, states the second two

Congressional Elections  Four problems in determining who serves in the House Total size of house Allocating seats to the states Size of districts Shape of districts  Congress determines the first two, states the second two

Congressional Elections

 The states did not act on malapportionment and gerrymandering until ordered to do so by the court  Wesberry v. Sanders (1964)- one person, one vote  Still leaves a lot of room for state legislatures to maneuver

Congressional Elections- Primaries  Largely beyond party control  Gather signatures to get name on ballot and then beat opponents  Rare for incumbents to lose a primary but 2008/ 2010 were exceptions (kind of)

Congressional Elections- Primaries  There is often a sophomore surge- an increase in votes when running for a second term  This is largely because being in Congress offers many boosts to one’s campaign

Congressional Elections- Primaries  Examples: Franking privilege- free mail Get covered in papers and on TV Bring services, jobs, funding to district Sell selves as the hometowner in congress, there to clean things up

Congressional Elections- Primaries  The weakness of the parties and the local focus of the congressmen affects policy Office is focused on needs of constituents  “All politics is local”  Trustee vs. delegate