Keenan Johnston Shivam Khanna David Light September 25, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Keenan Johnston Shivam Khanna David Light September 25, 2008

Presentation Outline Macroeconomic Review Current market conditions Industry Overview Copart Overview Historical Performance Recent Events/Performance Portfolio Positioning Financial Projections

Macroeconomic review High oil prices, credit market turmoil and weakness in financial sector has dragged markets down in the recent months The market is down 17% this year Copart’s revenues however, are not materially affected by economic slowdowns Source: Yahoo Finance, Company filings

Current market conditions Non-cyclical companies trading at a premium  Represents insulation for economic uncertainty Volatility at a high (VIX below) Source: Yahoo Finance

Industry Overview More cars = More accidents = More auctions = More revenue Industry benefits with increasing demand for cars, More cars = More accidents = More auctions = More revenue  Current economic conditions are not conducive to car purchasing More demand for Copart’s auctions Insurance companies are facing shrinking premium margins and in order to cuts costs are purchasing recycled parts from salvaged vehicles. More demand for Copart’s auctions Less car accidents = fewer opportunities for revenue Rising global oil prices have driven people to find alternatives to driving, Less car accidents = fewer opportunities for revenue

Key Market Players Source: Wikiinvest

Copart Overview Runs a proprietary online auction system for salvaged vehicles  Damaged cars often termed by Insurance Companies as “Total Loss” Provides vehicle suppliers a full range of re-marketing services to process and sell these vehicles Earns Revenue from both buyers and sellers at the auction (not dissimilar to StubHub or Ebay) Source: Company filings

Copart Business Model - US Accident totally destroys car Insurance Co. deems car too costly to repair Copart auctions car to buyers all around the globe and earns income from both parties DismantlersExportersRebuilders Used car dealers Source: Company filings

Copart Business Model - UK Accident totally destroys car Insurance Co. deems car too costly to repair Copart purchases car from Insurance company and remarkets it to potential buyers Risk of devaluation DismantlersExportersRebuilders Used car dealers Source: Company filings

North American Facilities Copart Plans to add North American Facilities in the next year Management sees potential for facilities over time ~35% market share Source: R.W. Baird

U.K. Facilities In 2008, increased facilities from 10 to 15 Projected to acquire 5 more facilities in the next year 30% market share by the end of next year in U.K. Source: R.W. Baird

Historical financial performance Historically strong financial performance  Driven by outstanding margins Source: Company filings

Shareholder Base Source: Yahoo Finance

Recent events September 18, Copart adds a new facility in Kentucky due to growing demand April 14, Copart acquires fourth facility in Missouri March 7, Revenues declined after company declared UK expansion had not gone according to plan March 6, Copart entered into a $200 million revolving line of credit with Bank of America. Source: Company filings, Reuters

Stock performance Source: Google Finance

Current Portfolio

Correlation Source: Yahoo Finance

Financial Projections

Base case In-line with management projections Gross PP&E to remain at 95% of sales  historically % Net goodwill at 38% of net PP&E  historically 33-45% Tax rate: 38%

Base case With relatively optimistic assumptions our model yielded a value well below market

Base case- sensitivity

RCMP Historical Transactions DateBuy/SellPriceSharesValue Feb 28, 2003Buy$7.82(1000)$7,820 Nov 15, 2007Sell$36.20(300)($10,860) Apr 30, 2008Sell$41.30(300)($12,390) DateSharesPriceMarket Value Sep 22, $43.34$17,336 Current Holdings

Recommendation Sell 200 shares with a $36 limit order Gross proceeds of approximately $8,200  Based on market price of $41.00 Will realize a gain of approximately $6,630