Investments: Analysis and Behavior Chapter 1- Introduction ©2008 McGraw-Hill/Irwin

1-2 Learning Objectives Learn the power of building wealth through investing over time. Understand the nature and performance of financial assets. Identify common objectives of investors. Practice obtaining important financial information. Become acquainted with job opportunities in the financial services sector.

1-3

1-4 Buy High, Sell Low?! It is obvious that investors should buy low and sell high in order to build wealth over time.  So why do investors frequently buy high and sell low? The investment process involves analytical analysis of investment alternatives that are filtered through a decision process that is fraught with psychological biases.  To be a successful investor, you should be able to use the analytical tools and control your emotions and psychological biases!

1-5 Building Wealth Recipe for success: Start with some cash… Earn a high rate of return… Add lots of time… How important are time and return?

1-6 Over a 24-year period, a 9% return leads to twice the wealth of 6% returns, and 12% returns almost quadruple the wealth generated by a 6% return. Table 1.1Compound Interest Leads to Amazing Growth Look What $10,000 Turns into NumberWith an Investment Return of: of Years6%9%12% 1$10,600$10,900$11, ,23611,88112, ,91012,95014, ,62514,11615, ,18516,77119, ,93819,92624, ,12228,12738, ,40439,70361, ,07156,04496, ,48979,111151, ,117111,671238, ,534157,633375, ,473222,512591, ,857314,094930,510 (Note: Annual compounding is assumed.)

1-7 Asset Classes Cash Reserves  i.e., short-term money market instruments  U.S. Treasury bills, Savings deposits, CDs  Commercial Paper Bonds  Debt obligations over one year  Treasury Notes, Treasury Bonds, Municipal Bonds  Corporate Bonds Stocks  Common stock is ownership of a public corporation

1-8 Historical Returns of Stocks and Bonds Stocks have earned an average return of around 12% per year for the past 50 years.  Depending what index is used. Long-term Treasury bonds have earned around 6% per year.  50%/50% allocation to stocks/bonds would average around 9% But there is a lot of volatility!

1-9 StocksTreasury Year(S&P 500)BondsBills %12.11% 6.5% %13.23% 4.3% %5.69% 4.1% %-1.11% 7.0% %4.35% 7.9% %9.20% 5.8% %16.75% 5.0% %-0.69% 5.3% %-1.18% 7.2% %-1.23% 10.0% %-3.95% 11.5% %1.86% 14.0% %40.36% 10.7% %0.65% 8.6% %15.48% 9.6% %30.97% 7.5% %24.53% 6.0% %-2.71% 5.8% %9.67% 6.7% %18.11% 8.1% %6.18%7.5% %19.30%5.4% %8.05%3.5% %18.24%3.0% %-7.77%4.3% %31.67%5.5% %-0.93%5.0% %15.08%5.1% %13.52%4.8% %-8.74%4.7% %20.11%5.9% %4.56%3.5% %17.17%1.6% %2.06%1.0% %7.70%1.4% %3.05%3.1% Average13.3%6.4%4.9% Median15.4%3.6%4.7%

1-10 Start with $10,000 in each asset.

1-11 Investment Objectives Why are you investing?  Retirement, down payment, vacation, … Investment objectives are important.  Matching goal characteristics with investment characteristics.  Risk, return, time

1-12 Long-term Investing Retirement plans from employers Defined Benefit plans  Employer promise to pay a fixed retirement income.  Formula driven.  Employer does all the work and makes decisions Defined Contribution plans  You save (tax deferred) from paycheck.  Employers may contribute too.  You make all the decisions  Benefit depends on contributions and investment return.

1-13 Young investors can accumulate significant wealth through regular investing of modest amounts. The longer you wait to start investing, however, the greater the cost to building significant wealth. The Long-term Payoff to Regular Investing Can Be Huge Wealth Created With an Amount InvestedNumberInvestment Return of: per Yearof Years6%9%12% Young Investor $30040$46,429$101,365$230,127 $1, ,714405,459920,510 $2, ,524675,7651,534,183 $6, ,5722,027,2954,602,549 $12,000401,857,1444,054,5899,205,097 Middle-age Investor $ ,03615,34821,616 $1, ,14361,39286,463 $2, ,571102,320144,105 $6, ,714306,961432,315 $12, ,427613,921864,629

1-14 Key Investment Concepts A portfolio  Diversified (hopefully!) collection of stocks, bonds and other assets.  Individual investments are often evaluated on how they change the characteristics of the portfolio. Risk  Chance of economic loss.  Sometimes measured as a variation in return. Expected Return  Anticipated gain of a specific period of time.  Often evaluated as compensation for taking certain types of risks.

1-15 Efficient Market Hypothesis Idea that every security at every point in time is fairly priced.  Implication is that prices are unpredictable Controversial  Market bubbles  Most professional investors don’t beat the market  Investment superstars  Hard to predict the direction of stock prices

1-16 Investment management performance At any point in time, many investment managers are beating the market for the month, quarter or year. A couple years later, most of these managers are no longer performing so well.  Regression to the mean Superstar exceptions  Warren Buffett  Peter Lynch  Sir John Templeton

1-17 Valuing Assets – future value Future Value Future value = Present sum × (1 + Interest rate) t The future value of a $5,000 investment earning 8% interest over a period of 15 years is future value = $5,000 × ( ) 15 = $15,861 NI/YPVPMTFV 158-5,0000| CPT FV = $15,860.85

1-18 Valuing Assets – present value Present Value Present value = The present value of a $15,860 to be received in 15 years with an 8% rate of return is present value = = $5,000 NI/YPVPMTFV 158 | 015,860 CPT PV = -$5,000

1-19 Valuing Assets – payments Future value = Present value = Over the next 30 years, an employee contributes $3,000 per year to an investment expected to earn 9% per year. After 30 years, the employee will have: future value = = $408,923 NI/YPVPMTFV | CPT PV = $408,923

1-20 Compound Frequency Mortgages and auto loans use monthly payments and compounding  Dividends paid quarterly  Bonds pay semi-annually Adjust the number of periods and rate What is the future value of a $1,000 investment 3 years from now if it receives a 9% annual return compounded (A) annually, (B) quarterly, and (C) continuously? Solution: (A) Future value = $1,000 X ( ) 3 = $1,295 (B) Future value = $1,000 X ( ) 12 = $1,306 (C) Future value = $1,000 X e 0.09x3 = $1,310

1-21 Behavior is important too Incentives  Stockbroker and commissions  Mutual fund incentives Psychology  The higher the degree of uncertainty in a decision, the more emotions and psychological biases are used to help make the decision.

1-22 Getting information - Newspapers Barron’shttp:// market commentary once a week, portfolio analysis and databank. Investor’s Business Dailyhttp:// William O’Neal dispenses stock picking, charting, and momentum strategies. Big on investor education. The Wall Street Journalhttp://online.wsj.com/home/usThe daily paper when it comes to financial news and information. Print subscribers get interactive access at a bargain price. USA Todayhttp:// htm Don’t underestimate “McPaper’s” Money Section when it comes to business, economic, and financial news. It’s terrific!

1-23 Getting information - Magazines Business Weekhttp://businessweek.com/index.htmlTimely business news and analysis, useful business school, career and small business information. The Economisthttp:// analysis and opinion on the business and political events of the week. Forbeshttp://forbes.com/Terrific commentary on economics and financial markets from an all- star stable of regular columnists. Fortunehttp:// for Fortune 500 company list. Interesting advice on career development. Kiplinger's Personal Financehttp:// practical guidance on saving, investing, planning for retirement, and major purchases. Moneyhttp://money.cnn.com/Interesting market commentary, company and mutual fund analysis aimed at novice investors. Smart Moneyhttp:// the need for personal finance information for affluent, sophisticated, professional, and managerial Americans.

1-24 Getting information - Online CBS MarketWatchhttp://cbs.marketwatch.comFocused on financial news and information. Individual investors can find news, commentary, advice, and stock price information. The Motley Foolwww.fool.comAn online forum designed to "educate, amuse and enrich investors." A constant stream of witty investment advice on active message boards. MSN Moneyhttp://moneycentral.msn.com/home.aspInvesting highlights for customized portfolios, market reports, mutual fund directory, retirement and personal finance. TheStreet.comwww.thestreet.comA full menu of stock analysis, market commentary, and biting satire. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is the place to find free access to official SEC filings by individual companies, obrain information about individual brokers, or file a complaint about shady business practices Yahoo! Financehttp://finance.yahoo.com/A terrific web site with U.S. markets, world markets, quotes, financial news, and data.

1-25 Investment Industry Jobs Jobs  Brokers  Traders  Portfolio managers  Financial planners  Investment bankers  Security analysts Working at  Commercial banks  Savings and credit unions  Securities firms  Investment banks  Companies  Credit rating agencies  Mutual funds  Life insurance companies  Securities exchanges

1-26 Objectives of the course and text Develop a clear understanding of the many useful and practical implications of financial theory. Understand how the incentives of various market participants influence investor decisions and also highlight the impact of a person’s own psychology. Acquire a framework for understanding the returns on all financial assets, including stocks, bonds and financial derivatives. Gain familiarity with the institutions and language of Wall Street so as to facilitate the development of an effective personal investment strategy.