L ION G OLD C ORP C ASE S TUDY Tan Weihan. Disclaimer and Declaration The objective of the presentation is for educational purposes. The full content.

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Presentation transcript:

L ION G OLD C ORP C ASE S TUDY Tan Weihan

Disclaimer and Declaration The objective of the presentation is for educational purposes. The full content of the presentation is for illustration purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. The presenter is not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. The presenter may have personal interest in the particular shares presented.

Agenda Company Background 1 Industry Overview 2 Ratio Analysis 3 Valuation 4 5 Risk

Company Background LionGold Corp Ltd is a Main Board SGX listed investment holding company focused on gold mining, mine development and exploration. Primary gold interests are currently in Ghana and Australia.

Company Background Source: Company’s Presentation Slides

Company Background

Source: Company’s Presentation Slides

Business Model Source: Annual Report Revenue Breakdown for 2013

Business Model Source: Company’s Presentation Slides

Business Model Source: Company’s Presentation Slides

Business Model Source: Company’s Presentation Slides

Business Model Source: Company’s Presentation Slides

Industry Outlook Central Bank become Net Buyers of Gold Source: CPM Group

Industry Overview Source: World Gold Council Gold jewellery, bars, coin still in Demand

Industry Overview Source: CPM Group Gold Mining hits a Plateau

Industry Overview Source: Bloomberg. Barclay Research Diminishing Margin Return for Gold Mining

Recent News Source: SGX Announcement Liongold on course to achieve 40,000 to 50,000 production annual target

Ratio Analysis FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013 Growth rate (%YoY) Revenue4.58%-10.62%19.20%10.36%29.79% EBIT14.21% %-88.06% %-61.55% Net proft0.93% %-67.12% %-69.89% Profitability Gross Profit Margin5.48%14.07%12.53%10.65%8.51% Net Profit Margin-6.26%4.05%1.12%-30.04%-6.97% Return on Asset-8.77%3.89%1.15%-31.70%-3.48% Return on Equity-24.68%11.05%3.63% %-6.82% Liquidity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio Solvency Debt to Equity Interest Coverage NA Solvency Did not generate returns for shareholders Solid cash balance with no default risk

Valuation Methodology – Enterprise Value/Resource Comparison – Discounted Cash Flow

Valuation (EV/Resource) Source: Bloomberg and respective company websites Enterprise Value – How much are you willing to pay to buy the company? – Market Cap + Debt + Preferred shares - Cash

Valuation (EV/Resource) Source: Bloomberg and respective company websites

Fair Value – Current Share Price: $0.154 – Gold Company Valuation Median : 217 – Lion Gold EV/Resource : 17 – Fair Value Calculation Fair Value = 217 / 17 x = $1.96 Valuation (EV/Resource)

Profit / FCFF projection Valuation

Valuation - Assumptions Beta0.19 Risk Free Rate3.00% Market Risk Premium7.00% Cost of Debt6.50% Cost of Equity4.36% Equity Funding137,312 Debt Funding42,761 WACC4.87% Terminal Growth3.00% Total Outstanding Shares Total Debt42761

Valuation – DCF Assumption

Valuation – Fair Value Low valuation, because financial reports had shown that Lion Gold been unable to generate returns for shareholder

Trading Data 52 Weeks Trading Range$ $1.76 Avg Volume (3 mths)14.6 mil Market Cap$ mil Source: Yahoo Finance

Main Risks Valuation assumes cash cost per ounce remains stable at USD $1200/oz for the next 5 years Fluctuation in Spot Gold prices is likely to have an impact on the profit margin of Gold mining companies.

Main Risks Recent plunge in share price means that Lion Gold is unable to use its strategy of using share placement for acquisition of gold mines. Default Risk – Very Low – Current ratio = 2.73x – Interest coverage = NA – D/E ratio = 0.17 – Loans maturing this year = $2.7 mil – Cash = $46 mil

Conclusion Lion Gold Corp had been using a acquisition model to grow its business however due to the sudden plunge, their M&A model is likely to be halted. Low Enterprise Value to Resource makes Lion Gold a potential takeover target for large capital group or bigger gold mine Lion Gold is asset rich, however the jury is still out on whether they can continue to create returns for Shareholders, thus explaining the low valuation for this counter.