Chapter 7: Technical Analysis of the Stock Market By: Lyannette Plaza

Dow Theory Dow Theory was invented in the late 1800s and is considered the birth of technical analysis. It is named for Charles Dow, co-funder of the Dow Jones Company and an editor of Dow- Jones owned newspaper The Wall Street Journal.

Dow Theory (Cont.) The main point of Dow Theory is that there are three forces continually at work in the stock market A primary market trend A secondary reaction or secondary market trend Daily fluctuations The primary market trend is either bullish (up) or bearish (down), and it reflects the long run direction of the market. The basic purpose of the Dow Theory is to signal changes in the direction of the primary trend. This is monitored by two stock market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)

Support and Resistance Levels A support level is a price or level below which a stock or the market as a whole is unlikely. A resistance level is a price or level above which a stock or the market as a whole act like it just can’t break up above.

Support and Resistance Levels (Cont.) A resistance level occurs when the price rises and more people buy the stock and it goes up in price. As the price goes higher, more people who have bought it at lower prices start selling to take a short- term profit and the stock reaches a point where it “tops out” and falls back a little.

Support and Resistance Levels (Cont.) A breakout occurs when a stock or a market index passes through a support or resistance level. A breakout usually continues up or down for a while after it occurs.

Technical Indicators Technical analysis is used to forecast the direction of the market in not only stocks but also futures and Forex.

Market Breadth The idea behind market breadth is to attempt to measure the overall health of the stock market, working down through sectors to individual stocks. You will measure market breadth using advancing versus declining issues, new highs versus lows, and up volume versus down volume.

The Advance-Decline Line This is the most commonly used measure of market breadth and is really simple. The way the advance-decline (AD ) line is calculated is by simply subtracting the number of declining issues from the number of advancing issues. If there are more advances than declines, the number is positive. If there are more declines than advances, the number is negative. The day’s number is added to the cumulative AD line to display the trend.

The Advance-Decline Line (Chart) The McClellan Oscillator is constructed by taking the difference between two exponential moving averages of the daily NYSE advance decline values. Specifically, the McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-day (10%) trend and the 39-day (5%) trend.

New Highs Versus New Lows To measure market breadth you also need to know the number of stocks hitting new 52-week (yearly) highs or new 52-week lows in a chart of new highs versus new lows.

Upside Versus Downside Volume This is the third and final piece of data you need to measure the breadth of the market. Upside volume is the trading volume of advancing shares, while downside volume is the trading volume of declining shares though they were “worth” about the same amount.

The Arms Index The Arms Index , named for its creator Richard Arms, is a ratio of a ratio. A ratio is just a fraction. The numerator the top part of the fraction in this case is the ratio of the number of advancing issues (stocks) divided by the number of declining issues. The purpose of the Arms Index is to gauge whether there is more volume in rising or falling stocks.

Daily Bar Chart The daily bar chart is the most commonly used chart in technical analysis, but there are also line charts, and candlestick charts.

Arithmetic versus Logarithmic Scale Chart On the arithmetic scale, the vertical price scale shows an equal distance for each price unit of change. On the log scale, the percentage increases get smaller as the price scale increases.

Intraday Charts The intraday chart shows you one day’s session of price activity, where each blip is a transaction. They are very useful when you are trading in an illiquid stock. Intra is a Latin word that means inside. Since this chart is intended to show activity within one day it is called an “intra” day chart. Inter means “between” in Latin, so the daily, weekly, and monthly charts I explain next are called interday charts.

Daily Charts The daily chart condenses an entire day’s price activity into one bar that shows the open, high, low and close prices during the day.

Weekly Bar Chart The weekly chart shows you an entire week of price activity in each bar.

Monthly Bar Chart The monthly chart shows you an entire month’s price activity.

Trend The trend is simply the recent direction of the market. An uptrend is a series of successively higher price peaks. A downtrend is just the opposite a series of declining peaks and troughs. Horizontal peaks and troughs, on the other hand, are a sideways trend also known as a price channel or a trading range. The trend has three classifications major trend, intermediate trend and near term trends.

Trend (Example) Fan lines can be drawn along successive peaks to help you deal with minor trend line breaks, where you can buy more or place a stop-loss order. A stop-loss order is an order to sell (buy) when the price of a stock falls (rises) to a designated level called the stop price where you want to cut your losses and get out.

Reversal Patterns Reversal patterns imply that an important reversal in trend may be taking place. The continuation pattern, on the other hand, tells you that the market is only pausing for a while, possibly to correct for a near-term overbought or oversold market condition, after which the existing trend should resume.

The Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern In the case of the head and shoulders reversal top pattern, there is a major uptrend in which a series of rising peaks and troughs gradually begin to lose momentum. This is bullish. With this pattern you want to watch the neckline for a break. The head and shoulders reversal bottom pattern is just the opposite and is a bearish pattern.

Saucer Bottom Reversal Pattern Saucer bottoms are usually spotted on weekly or monthly charts that span several years. The longer the saucer bottom lasts, the larger the rise.

Continuation Patterns: Triangles The symmetrical triangle shows up as converging trend lines like a sideways letter “v”. This is also called a coil because the stock price is “coiling up” for a break out and breakouts from these patterns are spectacular.

Continuation Patterns: Triangles The ascending triangle has a rising lower line with a flat or horizontal upper line.

Continuation Patterns: Triangles The descending triangle is just the opposite of the ascending triangle. These are also called wedges.

Continuation Patterns: Flags and Pennants The flag and pennant are brief pauses in upward or downward market moves and rarely produce trend reversals.

Volume Volume is the total amount of trading activity on an exchange or in a single stock for that day. Volume is plotted on daily, weekly and monthly charts. The one specific time where volume is really useful is during blow- off tops when insiders are selling out of a stock.

Long-Range Charts Long-range charts of five years or more provide a perspective on the market trend that is impossible to see with daily charts alone. Trend analysis, support and resistance levels, trend lines, percentage retracements, and price patterns all lend themselves very well to the analysis of long-range price movements. If you don’t consult long-range price charts, you will miss an enormous amount of valuable price information absent from financial reports.

Moving Averages The moving average is a trend following device to identify or signal that a new trend has begun or that an old trend has ended or reversed by averaging the price data.

Oscillators The oscillator is extremely useful in non-trending markets where prices fluctuate in a trading range horizontally it is very useful inflat-trending markets. Short-term stock traders, called swing traders or market timers, use oscillators to try to profit from flat, trendless sideways markets. The oscillator identifies overbought or oversold conditions in the price channel. The idea is that if the market is overbought at the top of the channel that it will soon begin to fall back to the bottom of the channel from selling pressure.

Momentum Momentum is the most basic of all oscillators and is positive or negative around a zero line. The formula for momentum is: M = P0 - P1where P0 is the latest closing price and Pi is the closing price i days ago. 10 days ago is the most common lag time.

Relative Strengh Index

Stochastic (K%D) Oscillator The stochastic (K%D) oscillator is based on the occasional tendency for up trending prices to have daily closing prices that tend to be closer to the upper end of the intraday price range.

Larry William’s %R Larry William’s %R is based on a similar concept of measuring the latest close in relation to its price over a given number of days.

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) is the difference between two exponentially smoothed moving averages of closing prices (usually the last 12 and 26 days or weeks). The slower line (called the signal line) is usually a 9 period exponentially smoothed average of the MACD line.

Japanese Candlesticks This charting method uses open, high, low and close prices, but in a much more visually appealing form.

Elliot Wave Theory Th ere are three important aspects of wave theory: pattern, ratio and time. The Fibonacci number sequence form s the mathematical basis for the Elliot Wave Theory. Part of the Fibonacci number sequence is as follows: 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55 ,89,144, etc.

Times Cycles Cyclic analysts measure cycle lengths from high to low. The three qualities of cycle are amplitude, period and phase.