Ryan Spackman (STC/ESRL), Marty Ralph (Scripps), Chris Fairall (ESRL), Allen White (ESRL), Janet Intrieri (ESRL) CalWater 2 Early Start G-IV Flights “AR Experiment” 3 – 25 Feb 2014

Science Highlights GFS Analysis Feb 2014 Science Priority – Evolution and Structure of ARs Targets:  2 major landfalling AR events along West Coast  Tropical Moisture Export (TMEs) events from Hawaii  Poleward developing AR between Hawaii and Alaska  Occluded front in Gulf of AK and midlatitude offshore AR between Hawaii and CA

Science Highlights GFS Analysis Feb 2014 Tropical Moisture Export Events Feb Landfalling ARs 8 Research Flights 7-15, 24 Feb Developing ARs and Extratropical Cyclone Flights Feb Science Priority – Evolution and Structure of ARs Targets:  2 major landfalling AR events along West Coast  Tropical Moisture Export (TMEs) events from Hawaii  Poleward developing AR between Hawaii and Alaska  Occluded front in Gulf of AK and midlatitude offshore AR between Hawaii and CA

Science Highlights 7-Day Observed Precipitation Feb 2014 Science Priority – Evolution and Structure of ARs Targets:  2 major landfalling AR events along West Coast  Tropical Moisture Export (TMEs) events from Hawaii  Poleward developing AR between Hawaii and Alaska  Occluded front in Gulf of AK and midlatitude offshore AR between Hawaii and CA

Forecast Improvements? – CrIS and ATMS Item 1: AR landfalling forecast errors are large (500 km at 5 days, 200 km at 1 day from Wick et al. 2013) ➤ Preliminary analysis suggests retrievals from CrIS and ATMS could improve landfalling forecasts AR Developing on 21 Feb GFS Integrated Vapor Transport Init 6Z 8 Feb, Valid 21Z 8 Feb Flight Plan, 8 Feb 2014 AR Mesoscale Frontal Wave Item 2: Vertical structure of water vapor in ARs is crucial to getting integrated vapor transport correct ➤ Numerous discrepancies between model and dropsonde data were observed in vertical profiles of water vapor across ARs Dropsondes

NOAA G-IV Payload  Dropsondes – T, P, RH, wind speed and direction  Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) – Reflectivity and wind field  SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer) – Surface winds and rain rate G-IV in Anchorage, Feb 2014

 12 research flights + 3 ferry flights (no science) for total of ~94 flight hr  190 sondes + 7 IR test sondes deployed with: 75% of project sondes released in first 7 research flights due to prime atmospheric river (AR) science opportunities from NorCA Focus on precipitation regions near associated with ARs near Hawaii/Alaska on last 5 research flights to take advantage of TDR capabilities Flight Operations Final approach into Travis after AR Box Module Flight 11 Feb 2014 Final approach into Honolulu after Kona Low Flight 19 Feb 2014 NOAA G-IV on the ramp at Anchorage before Flight into Gulf of AK 22 Feb 2014

Flight Operations 7-Day Observed Precipitation Feb 2014 Research Flight 2 – Mesoscale Frontal Wave, 8 Feb 2014 Research Flight 12 – Midlatitude AR, 24 Feb 2014

Flight Operations Final approach into Travis after AR Box Module Flight 11 Feb 2014 Final approach into Honolulu after Kona Low Flight 19 Feb 2014 NOAA G-IV on the ramp at Anchorage before Flight into Gulf of AK 22 Feb 2014 Base of Operations:  Travis AFB (Primary): 7 research flights  Honolulu: 3 research flights (including science ferry to ANC)  Anchorage: 2 research flights (including science ferry to TAFB)

Flight Planning:  AR box modules  IVT stacked flight modules  Mesoscale frontal wave transects  TDR modules  AR transects Flight Operations Research Flight 4 – IVT 2-Layer Stacked Module 12 Feb stacked flights in coastal FIR were conducted with flight levels above and below the icing layer to evaluate TDR performance

Flight Operations Staffing:  PI – Chris Fairall  Mission Scientists – Ralph (7 flights) and Spackman (5 flights)  Onboard Scientists – White (3 flights) and Intrieri (1 flight)  Guest Scientists – David Reynolds (NWS Monterey), Jay Jasperse (SCWA), Gary Barnes (U of HI), U of HI graduate students  Lead Forecaster – Cordeira

Research Flight Summary RF01 – RF12 7 – 24 Feb 2014

Project Date – Flight BaseMission Scientist AR characteristicsFlight Hours & Drops Type of missionNotes 5/6 Feb – No flyTAFBRalphDown Day for G-IV crew 7 Feb – RF01TAFBRalphWell-defined AR with IWV > 3 cm and IVT > 600 units 6.1 h, 23 drops3 box module Used 23 sondes; all good 3 boxes, each one about 1 hour to execute; Janet Intrieri onboard with Ralph 8 Feb – RF02TAFBRalphWell-defined AR with IWV > 3.5 cm and IVT > 700 units 8.1 h, 29 dropsMesoscale frontal wave Used 29 sondes Mesoscale frontal wave; Dave Reynolds and Jay Jasperse onboard with Ralph 9 Feb – No flyTAFBRalphModerate AR makes landfall on central CA coast CancelledMission cancelled – Down dayNear-shore track planned with military warning areas; Precip predicted to be onshore early; G-IV repair needed in Vegas 10 FebTAFBRalphNoneMaintenanceG-IV in Vegas under repair; return to TAFB 11 Feb – RF03TAFBSpackmanStrong AR Offshore NorCal 6.1 h, 36 drops3 AR boxesBox 2 is 50 nm larger north-south than IOP-1 due to uncertainty in AR axis position 12 Feb – RF04TAFBSpackmanAR Landfall NorCal4.2 h, 15 dropsIVT Stacked Flight (2 levels)Allen White onboard as Met support and familiarization 13 Feb – RF05TAFBWhiteModerate AR off OR5.9 h, 24 dropsFar offshore IVT Cross Section 14 Feb – RF06TAFBWhiteModerate AR off OR4.1 h, 4 dropsIVT Stacked Flight (3 levels)TDR survey at cruise and immediately above/below icing layer 15 Feb – RF07TAFBRalphModerate AR near OR7.0 h, 14 drops 17 Feb – To HNLTAFBSpackmanNo science6.0 hFerry Flight Research Flight Summary

Project Date – Flight BaseMission Scientist AR characteristicsFlight Hours & Drops Type of missionNotes 18 Feb – RF08HNLSpackmanAR development7.0 h, 14 dropsIWV Remnants of Kona LowGary Barnes and Vanessa Almanza (PhD student) onboard with Spackman 19 Feb – RF09HNLSpackmanAR development6.7 h, 13 dropsAR Source Region3 UH graduate students flying; Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground 20 Feb – No flyHNLSpackmanDown Day 21 Feb – RF10 to ANC HNLSpackmanAR forming and elongating NNE from HI toward AK 7.9 h, 14 dropsMultiple transects across high IWV region Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground 22 Feb – RF11ANCSpackmanMidlatitude AR in Gulf of Alaska 6.8 h, 1 dropTDR Survey along occluded front of extratropical cyclone Painted precip with TDR for ~4 hr; Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground 24 Feb – RF12 to TAFB ANCSpackmanModerate AR near OR~7.5 h, 3 dropsTDR Survey along Midlatitude ARChief Scientist (Spackman) on ground 25 Feb – To FLTAFBNANo science~5 hFerry Flight Research Flight Summary

400 km Enhanced vapor flux in Atmos. river cold air Warm, Humid AR core Dropsonde leg: 1000 km Start: FL410 FL150; T < -12C End: FL060 Adapted from F. M. Ralph (Scripps) Execution Plan RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked Flight TAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb 2014

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked Flight TAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb Z: FL410 Reflectivity

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked Flight TAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb Z: FL410 North-south vertical cross-section of a east-west-wind-component analysis approximately along the flight track

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked Flight TAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb Z: ~FL200 Higher-resolution vertical cross section of reflectivity

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb 2014 F+24 h valid for Friday valid 00Z 22 Feb 2014

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb 2014 Way point determinations: NCEP – GFS Init 0600 UTC 21 Feb 2014 F+18 h valid for Friday valid 00Z 22 Feb 2014

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb 2014 Way point determinations: NCEP – GFS Init 0600 UTC 21 Feb 2014 F+18 h valid for Friday valid 00Z 22 Feb 2014

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb Feb 18 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb Feb 00 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb Feb 06 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb Feb 12 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb Feb 18 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing AR Science Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb Feb 00 UTC