North Sea ICES advice for 2008 Martin Pastoors (chair of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management) short version

New timing for North Sea advice EC requested for earlier advice for North Sea Allows more time for stakeholder inputs long-term strategies Expert group (WGNSSK) moved to early May Advice provided early June Some recruitment surveys in August / September Updates ONLY if substantial changes

Basis for the ICES advice for 2008 Assessment data Fisheries (landings, discards, catch rates) up to 2006 Surveys (including IBTS q1 survey in 2007) CPUE information (up to 2006) Recruitment information Autumn surveys not yet available Only difference with previous years Recent average recruitment used in forecasts

Advisory meetings (on fisheries) Plenary meetings May 2007 Baltic Arctic Iceland & Greenland Faroe Islands Herring stocks North Sea (NEW !) October 2007 North Sea (updates) Celtic seas / West Scotland Bay of Biscay / Iberian Widely distributed stocks

Regional orientation Advisory report organized by “Ecoregion”

Changes to timing of advice EC has requested ICES to provide most advice before the summer allows for stakeholder consultation processes focus on long-term strategies This year: North Sea as experiment From 2008 onwards, for all stocks in EU waters Still needs consultation on what type of advice

Changes to ICES advisory structure Three advisory committee’s Advisory Committee on Fishery Management (ACFM) Advisory Committee on Ecosystems (ACE) Advisory Committee on the Marine Environment (ACME) Layered system Expert groups Review groups (Subgroups) Advisory committee Only one (part-time) paid chair One advisory council oversee the advisory process make sure it adheres to quality standards Advisory “bureau” coordinate the advisory process 3-4 (part-time) positions Expert groups responsible for science AND drafting advice Review groups responsible for final advice Old New

North Sea stocks Overview home

Stock trends: SSB Cod Haddock Norway pout Plaice SaitheSole

Stock trends: fishing mortality Cod Haddock Norway pout Plaice SaitheSole

Stock trends: recruitment Cod Haddock Norway pout Plaice SaitheSole

Status of fish stocks (with assessments) Only for Ecoregion North Sea “Unknown category” can includes stocks that are depleted or high SSBF

Advice overview

Details by stock Cod North Sea, Eastern channel and Skagerrak Cod Haddock North Sea and IIIa Haddock Whiting North Sea and VIId Whiting Saithe North Sea, VIa and IIIa Saithe Plaice North Sea Plaice Sole North Sea Sole PlaiceEastern Channel Plaice SoleEastern Channel Sole PlaiceSkagerrak and Kattegat Plaice Norway poutNorth Sea (for 2007) Norway pout ( SandeelNorth Sea: provided in October) ( ElasmobranchsNorth Sea: no advice in 2007) ( Nephrops North Sea: no advice in 2007)

Cod North Sea, eastern Channel and Skagerrak home

Cod Assessment Age based, 2 surveys, landings + discards Estimates “unaccounted removals” Issues Underreporting ( ) Combined English and Scottish 3 rd quarter surveys Continued unaccounted removals Accepted as analytical assessment

Cod: unaccounted removals

Cod: summary

Cod: history of assessments Note: some of the previous assessment were presented as indicative of trends only. Ages over which mean fishing mortality is calculated was changed in 2004.

Cod: CPUE and stock trends Mean-standardized catch rates of North Sea cod recorded by English trawlers fishing in the first quarter of the year, the 2+ cod biomass as estimated by the 2006 ICES WGNSSK assessment and the IBTS Q1 survey.

Cod: forecasts 14% reduced F held constant 14% reduced F in 2007, zero after

Cod: advice Following the recovery plan Blim to be achieved in 2009 if F were reduced to 86% of the F 2006 : total removals in 2008 of t. ICES advice Low stock size and recent poor recruitment: stock cannot be rebuilt to B pa in 2009 even with a zero catch. Simulations that with low recruitment and zero catch in 2008 and 2009 is likely to achieve rebuilding of the stock to B pa by 2009 (“large growth potential”)

Haddock North Sea and IIIa home

Haddock Assessment Landings + discards + industrial bycatch 3 surveys to calibrate Issues Strong 1999 yearclass; slow growing 2005 yearclass is above average

Agreed management plan January 2007 Target F = 0.3, TAC constraint ICES advice on management plan: 27 October 2007 Conclusions The agreed reference points in the management plan are consistent with the precautionary approach Target F = 0.3 with TAC constraint ±15% leads on average to a <5% risk of B < Blim within the next 20 years. Increasing the target F increases the risk. Although the management plan has not been fully tested (e.g. at lower fishing mortalities), ICES concludes that the management plan can provisionally be accepted as precautionary and be used as the basis for advice.

Haddock: summary

Haddock in Sub-area IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa: history of assessments

Haddock: advice Last year: Fishing at F=0.3: landings 2007 = t. Associated discards: t. Target F is in accordance with precautionary approach New advice The agreed management plan can be provisionally accepted as precautionary ICES therefore advises according to this plan. This implies a TAC of t in 2008 (15% change in TAC), which should include industrial bycatch..

Whiting in North Sea and Eastern Channel home

Whiting Assessment Assessment indicative of recent trends (1995 …) Discrepancies between historical survey data and catches Issues Recruitment in last 5 years appears very low

Whiting: “assessments” catch + surveys Surveys only

Whiting: trends in different areas In the ICES 2006 report, research vessel surveys indicated a stable stock in the northern area and a declining stock in the southern area since 2001 Fisher surveys indicated a decline in the northern component from 2001 to 2005, and a stable or increasing southern component. Recent reports by some fleets indicate very low catch rates in the southern North Sea and English Channel during the past two years.

Whiting: recruitment

Whiting: advice Advice last year Recent average landings ( ): t. New advice Low catches have led to low fishing mortality from 2002–2005 low recruitment has resulted in a declining SSB to the lowest observed. Recent recruitment has been approximately 30% of average recruitments (year classes 1994–2001). Given the relative reduction in recruitment it is necessary to reduce future landings in order to keep fishing mortality low. Applying the reduction in recruitment to the average landings from the past three years corresponds to human consumption landings of t in 2008.

Saithe in North Sea, Skagerrak, West of Scotland and Rockall home

Saithe Assessment Landings data, 2 CPUE series, 2 surveys Issues No exploitation on juveniles (not available to fishery) Saithe management plan: target F 0.3 will be evaluated in October 2007 although ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan, the target fishing mortality in the management plan is expected to give high long-term gains in the present situation

Saithe: summary

Saithe in Sub-area IV, Division IIIa (Skagerrak) & Sub-area VI: history of assessments

Saithe: advice Last year Target F in management plan is precautionary and gives higher long term gains Follow management plan; TAC t. New advice ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan Target fishing mortality in the management plan is expected to give high long-term gains ICES therefore recommends to limit landings in 2008 to t. Area split: 91% in IV+IIIa, 9% in VI.

Plaice in the North Sea home

Plaice Assessment Landings + discards; 3 surveys Discards before 2000: model reconstruction 2000 and after: NL + UK + DK discards sampling Issues Most recent information:nearly 80% of the catch by number is discarded. all year classes since 2003 have been low

Plaice: catch

Plaice Sub-area IV (North Sea): summary

Plaice: fishing mortality by component discards landings

Plaice Sub-area IV (North Sea): history of assessments

Plaice: advice Last year Rebuild to Bpa: landings t. in 2007 New advice Rebuild to Bpa: landings t in 2008 TAC 2007: t.

Sole North Sea home

Sole Assessment Landings data + 2 surveys + 1 CPUE series Issues Main fishery in southern North Sea; more coastal. Mixed fishery with plaice; mesh size focussed on sole Fishing mortality just below Fpa in 2006 Yearclasses 2003 and 2004: weak Yearclass 2005: above average

Sole in Sub-area IV (North Sea): summary

Sole in Sub-area IV (North Sea): history of assessments

Sole: retrospective analysis Underestimation of fishing mortality

Sole: advice Advice last year rebuild to Bpa: landings t. New advice SSB above Bpa: landings t.

Plaice in the Eastern Channel home

Plaice in the Eastern Channel Assessment Exploratory assessment; trends only Confirmed by survey-only assessment Issues Stock identity (plaice in North Sea, Western Channel) Discarding of undersized plaice (not included) Conflicting signals in the data

Plaice in the Eastern Channel

Advice last year Stock does not appear to decline In the absence of short-term forecasts, ICES recommends to maintain landings in 2007 at 4000 t, average of 2003–2005. New advice In the absence of short-term forecasts, ICES recommends that landings in 2008 do not increase above the average of landings from the last three years (2004–2006), corresponding to 3500 t.

Sole in the Eastern Channel home

Sole in the Eastern Channel Assessment Landings + 2 CPUE series + 2 surveys Issues Underreporting and misreporting of catches Discards of plaice in mixed flatfish fisheries Strong 2001 and 2004 yearclasses contribute to stock History of overestimating stock size

Sole in Eastern Channel: summary

Sole in Division VIId (Eastern Channel): history of assessments

Sole in the Eastern Channel Advice last year Fish according to Fpa; landings of t. New advice Fish according to Fpa; landings of t.

Plaice in the Skagerrak and Kattegat home

Plaice in IIIa Assessment Surveys cover mainly inner part of IIIa Landings are mainly taken close to North Sea No basis for an assessment Issues Stock identity (high total mortality) Assessments have been very uncertain for many years Recruitment and SSB in IIIa appear to high in recent years (according to surveys)

Plaice in IIIa: distribution of landings

Plaice in IIIa: survey distributions

Plaice in IIIa Advice last year No analytical assessment Surveys indicate biomass increase. The advice is to maintain the current TAC of 9600 t for New advice Indications that biomass and recruitment has increased. No indications that the current catch level is detrimental to the stock Advice for 2008 is not to increase the catches above the most recent catch of 9400 t (2006).

Norway pout North Sea and Skagerrak home

Norway pout Assessment Seasonal assessment method 1 commercial CPUE series + 2 surveys Issues Recent recruitment low But 2005 yearclass just above average

Norway pout: summary

Norway pout: advice Suggested management plan by ICES In-year monitoring using surveys and exploratory fishing Evaluation finished in February 2007 ICES advice No fishing unless new information shows that stock can be rebuild to Bpa by 2008

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