Congressional Elections Paul E. Peterson

Key Fact about Congressional Elections: Incumbency Advantage Definition: the electoral advantage a candidate enjoys by virtue of being an incumbent, over and above his or her personal and political characteristics Advantage is very strong

Incumbent Re-election Rates Senate IncumbentHouse Incumbent

Signs of Incumbency Advantage Sophomore Surge – freshmen do better next time Retirement Slump – produces open seat. Party vote slumps when incumbent not running again Considered together: Slurge

The History of the Slurge

Large Incumbency Advantage in Cong. Elections Voters have less info about candidates –1/3 know name, 10% know vote on major issue Lower turnout Smaller constituencies Media coverage less Much depends on whether election is competitive, whereas all presidential elections are Niki Tsongas (D – MA 3 rd District) Mike Capuano (D – MA 7 th district) Stephen Lynch (D – MA 8 th district)

Sources of Incumbency Advantage 1.Institutional characteristics of Congress: – Decentralized committee structure – Pork barrel and Christmas tree legislation – Resources-staff, frank worth $1 mil Now more than ever – 18 staff, 40% in district 2.Nonpartisan constituency service 3.Redistricting 4.Fund-raising ability

New Dangers to Incumbents Primary elections Challenges from the extreme

Part 2 Congressional Districts and Campaigns

Reapportionment and Redistricting House: –The 435 seats in House are apportioned among the states according to their populations as measured in census taken every 10 years. This is called reapportionment. –Creates opportunities to draw new congressional district lines – redistricting Senate: representation simple, never changes

Gerrymandering Elbridge Gerry

Politics of Redistricting Fair – one vote, one value; every district must have same number of constituents But – within fairness rule, –Partisanship: Packing and splitting –Incumbency protection: Legislators want things from members of Congress –Majority minority district: sounds great, but is it desirable?

Money and Success Elections increasingly expensive Fundraising easier for incumbents –$ predicts success for challengers, not incumbents Contributions increasingly concentrated in competitive districts In less prominent races, a few interests may dominate Money today being raised nationally; then given to key campaigns

Elections Increasingly Expensive House of Representatives

The Scare-off Advantage Quality challengers are deterred from running if have little chance of winning Consequence: less competitive race: –Less media coverage –Public less informed –Voter decision making less sophisticated –So, incumbent has more legislative leeway –Uses leeway to vote with party – contributes to nationalization

Challenger Strategies Strategic ambition: desire to get elected, but assess the opportunities presented by a given political context To win, challenger must find vulnerability in incumbent: –Personal scandal –Incumbent out of touch with district –Guilt by association – with national party (if out of step with district opinion)

All Politics Local? Congressional races increasingly nationalized, especially in presidential years – But also in 2010 Coat tail effects: Presidential race influences lower level races (especially open seat races) Obama had coat tails in 2008 but won’t be on 2014 ballot

Presidential v. Midterm Turnout Presidential Year Midterm Year

–Without party labels, confusing for voters –Use other voting cues. Among most notable: Occupation labels, name characteristics (gender, ethnicity) –Low turnout Nonpartisan Elections

Nonpartisan Elections: Boston Mayoral Election John Connolly (D) – 12% Martin Walsh (D) – 11%Rob Consalvo (D) – 8% Daniel Conley (D) – 9% Poll (n=600) Margin of error = 4%

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