ENSO: Its impacts in the glaciers and ocean temperatures Eighth Grade Math Academic Night April 24th, 2015 By: María Paula Alarcón, María Paz Merino, and Antonia Pérez

Did you know that in 48 years 22% of the Antisana´s Glacier 15 has been lost?

Background Information ENSO or El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural phenomenom of changing ocean temperatures (cold and warm) in the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which causes climatic changes all around the world. El Niño brings warm water, La Niña brings cold water. El Niño reaches the eastern coast around Christmas eve. Normally, strong winds blow across the Pacific from the southeast. During an El Niño, they barely do.

Background Information This is a problem since fisherman can’t find fish because fish look for colder waters that are under the surface. It causes natural disasters like floods, wildfires, tornadoes, heat waves, and worst of all: glacial retreats in the Ecuadorian Andes. The ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere and then the atmosphere affects the glaciers. Antisana Volcano has the most tracked glaciar (Glaciar 15) in the Ecuadorian Andes. 22% of the glacier has disappeared in less than 50 years. During the 1990´s the abliation rates were high in Glacier 15. They were higher during El Niño.

OUR LAB Research Question: How does ENSO impact the ocean temperatures? Does this affect the glaciers in the Ecuadorian Andes? We took the daily temperatures for 7 months of the Central 1 region of Galápagos. Next, we averaged the temperatures of every month. We did a scatter plot for the averaged temperatures. We added a best fit line for the coordinates on the graph. We found the slope, y-intercept, and equation of the best fit line. Moni gave us data for the past 5 years of the Southern region of Galápagos to see a pattern. We also included a scatter plot and equation of the data from 5 years We recieved data for Antisana glacier 15 retreat ( ) We made a scatter plot and equation for this data.

Data Collected Average Sea Surface Temperature for the Galápagos Central 1 Islands Month# of MonthAvg Temp September122 October223.2 November December January February625.8 March727.35

Calculations Equation= y=0.75x y is the dependent variable (average temp) 0.75 is the slope x is the independent variable (# of month) is the y-intercept

SOUTHERN ISLANDS FOR 5 YEARS Average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the Galápagos Southern Islands Year# of YearAvg Temp (C°) Equation= y = 0.473x Dependent variable ( Avg Temp (C°)) Slope Independent variable (# of year) Y-intercept

ANTISANA’S GLACIER RETREAT Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat Year# of YearArea (M 2 ) , , , , ,207 Equation= y = x Dependent variable Independent variable Slope Y-intercept

CONCLUSION There is a linear relationship between ENSO and the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. There is a linear relationship between ENSO and the glacier retreat in the Ecuadorian Andes. The ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere and then the atmosphere affects the glaciers. As years have gone by, the ocean temperatures have increased and the glacier´s have reduced. In 5 years the temperature in the ocean increased by 2 C°. The positive slope in the ocean temperatures shows how the tempertaures have increased and the negative slope in the glaciers shows how the area has decreased.

Conclusion 2 In 6 more years the temperature will be C° y=0.473 (11) Y= Y= C° In 6 more years the area would 9331, 135 m 2 y= -16,804(21) Y=9331 m 2

Suggestions (Prevention) The teleconnections help forecast droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes. People should be informed. Based on what scientists know about ENSO patterns, they are predicting wet, dry, warm, or cold conditions for different regions at different times. Emergency plans in case of natural disasters (floods, fires thunderstorms, huirracanes and others). The Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Ganadería in Paraguay published a article telling farmers what to stop doing in order to decrease erosion cause by ENSO and try to inform fishers when ENSO is supposed to take place.

Sources - National Climatic Data Center Climate 1998 annual review: Annual U.S. national overview. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration retrieved from (NOAA) website. us_annual.html -Wilford, J. N North Pole visitors find no ice. New York Times, August 19: 4A. -Caceres, B. (2002, June 10). EL GLACIAR 15 DEL ANTISANA. DIEZ AÑOS DE INVESTIGACIONES GALCIOLOGICAS. Retrieved March 19, 2015, from publications/1588-el-glaciar-15-del-antisana-diez-anos-de-investigaciones- glaciologicas-1/file - Other information was given by Moni.