Jet Fuel Supply/Price Outlook: Fueling the Recovery Energy Information Administration Presentation to 4th International Jet Fuel Conference February 11,

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Presentation transcript:

Jet Fuel Supply/Price Outlook: Fueling the Recovery Energy Information Administration Presentation to 4th International Jet Fuel Conference February 11, 2002

EIA Petroleum Data Information Available at EIA –Supply and Price Data –Forecasts and analysis Where to Find EIA Information – –Publications –Ad hoc requests

EIA on the World Wide Web

EIA Petroleum Data Publications Weekly Petroleum Status Report This Week in Petroleum Petroleum Supply Monthly and Annual Petroleum Marketing Monthly Annual Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales Report

EIA Forecast Publications Short-term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook

WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2002.

OPEC 10 Crude Oil Production Is Much Lower After Quota Cuts in 2001 & 2002 History Projections Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2002.

EIA’s World Petroleum Balance Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2002.

Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight *Total includes commercial and government stocks. Source: History -- EIA

Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices Source: EIA and OECD

U.S. Reflects World Market Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2002.

Crude Oil Inputs Ended 2001 at “Normal” Levels; Dec 2000 Was Unusually High Source: EIA

The Cycle of Refinery Inputs and Product Inventories Increase in Crude Inputs (Summer 2001) Decrease in Crude Inputs (Late Winter 2001/02) Increase in Product Stocks (Fall 2001) Reduced Refinery Margins (Early Winter 2001/02) Increased Refinery Margins (Summer 2002) Decrease in Product Stocks (Spring 2002)

Drop in Demand Leaves Spare Capacity - For Now Source: EIA

Jet Fuel Inventories Will Fall Back to Earlier Levels Source: EIA

Prices Will Follow Crude Oil, Refinery Margins Source: EIA

In the Longer Term, U.S. Product Demand Will Further Outstrip Refinery Capacity Source: EIA Gasoline Jet Fuel Distillate Residual Fuel Other Refinery Capacity

Global Refinery Capacity Will Have to Grow Dramatically Source: EIA

Conclusions Despite recent output cuts, weak global demand will let oil prices rise only moderately this year The decline in jet fuel demand since 9/11 has left excess capacity in the system - in the short run Over the longer term, in the U.S. and worldwide, demand for jet fuel (and other petroleum products) will far outstrip existing refinery capacity Global refinery capacity, along with oil production, must grow dramatically over the next 20 years in order to supply needs for all refined products