MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE Ticker: WFR) Greg Bruno Tim Schmelzle Tom Wang Antti Zhang Tuesday, October 12, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE Ticker: WFR) Greg Bruno Tim Schmelzle Tom Wang Antti Zhang Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Presentation Outline WFR Stock Purchase History Company Overview Industry Outlook Historical & Recent Stock Performance Acquisition Activities SWOT Analysis & Porter’s Five Forces DuPont Analysis Competitor Analysis Financial Statement Analysis Financial Projections (DCF Valuations) Recommendation

WFR Stock Purchase History March 2008: 200 shares were $78.15 December 2008: 400 shares were $14.43 Cost basis=($78.15*200+$14.43*400)/( ) =$35.67 per share October 8, 2010 Closing Price: $13.09 Market Value of 600 shares: $7,854 % Portfolio Holding = 2.39% Unrealized Loss=$35.67*600-$7,584= $13,548 or 63.3%

Company Overview MEMC, based in St. Peters, Missouri, is a global leader in the manufacture and sale of wafers and related products to the semiconductor and solar industries. Founded in 1959 Employees 4,800 people worldwide 2009: Recorded Sales of $1.2 billion Stocks traded on New York Stock Exchange and is included in the S&P 500 index Data provided by as of October 10, 2010www.memc.com

Company Overview MEMC operates three business units: Semiconductor Materials ($7 billion market size) ◦ Manufactures silicon wafers which are used in building semiconductor devices Solar Materials ($10 billion market size) ◦ Manufactures silicon wafers which are used in building solar cells and solar modules Solar Energy ($39 billion market size) ◦ Sun Edison, MEMC’s subsidiary develops, finances, installs and operates solar power plants for its customers Information provided by as of October 10, 2010

Global Sales and Manufacturing Image provided by as of October 10, 2010www.memc.com

What is a wafer? A thin slice of semiconductor material, such as silicon crystal, used in the fabrication of integrated circuits and other micro devices. A solar wafer is a circular solar cell made from the entire wafer. Wafers are formed of highly pure, nearly defect-free single crystalline material. Wafers are the foundations upon which semiconductor and solar cells are built. Image provided by as of October 10, 2010www.memc.com

Image provided by as of October 10, 2010www.memc.com

Industry Outlook Recent growth in the industry is not sustainable and is attributed to a rebounding effect from the recent economic downturn. Growth for the remainder of 2010 is expected to continue diminishing from it’s present 27% to 6.3%, by 2011 and remain at 6.3% for the year. Growth is then expected to fall to the 4-5% range for the next several years. Core growth in this industry is expected to come from cell phone sales and non-retail avenues, primarily commercial solar development and military use. Consumer electronics outside of the cell phone industry is viewed as a mature sector with little growth. Thin film technology promises to displace wafer technology within the solar industry at increasing rates and is expected by many to render wafer technology obsolete in time. Data provided by as of October 10, 2010

Industry Revenue Chart produced by Yahoo Finance

Historical Stock Performance Chart produced by Yahoo Finance, October 9, symbol=WFR;range=

Historical Performance Chart produced by Yahoo Finance, October 9, symbol=WFR;range=

Recent Stock Performance Chart produced by Yahoo Finance, October 9, symbol=WFR;range=

Recent Stock Performance Chart produced by Yahoo Finance, October 9, symbol=WFR;range=

Acquisition Activities November 23, 2009 MEMC completed acquisition of privately held Sun Edison, a developer of solar power projects and North America’s largest solar energy service provider. (Paid with $314 million, 70% cash, 30% MEMC stocks) July 2, 2010 MEMC completed acquisition of privately held Solaicx. (Paid with $66 million cash, and plus $10 cash equivalent of investment in Solaicx.) The acquisition expected to be accretive to earnings per share in Based on the MEMC’s recent frequent acquisition activities, we expect more acquisition activities will be initiated in the near future. Information provided by & as of October 10, 2010www.memc.com

SWOT Analysis Strengths ◦ Large Cash Reserves ◦ Production of polysilicon ◦ Internal sales to SunEdison Weaknesses ◦ Overcapitalized (Too much Capacity) ◦ Recent investments in old technology ◦ Competitors located in Japan / China ◦ Several highly diversified competitors ◦ Very low pricing power

SWOT Analysis Opportunities ◦ Further diversification ◦ Reductions to COGS ◦ Acquisition into new technology ◦ Increased adoption of SunEdison Power Plants Threats ◦ Slow/no growth economy ◦ Fiscal Austerity ◦ Protectionism ◦ Wide adoption of different technology ◦ IRS audit / Lawsuits

Porter’s Five Forces Bargaining Power Suppliers – Low ◦ MEMC produces Polysilicon ◦ Polysilicon price is market driven Threat of New Entrants – High ◦ Increased demand for existing fuels ◦ Competitors patents / innovations ◦ Semi business is already commoditized Barriers to Entry – Medium High ◦ High fixed capital costs / burn rate to start ◦ Need for constant R&D and innovation ◦ Govt subsidies and investor funds are available

Porter’s Five Forces Bargaining Power of Buyers – Very High ◦ Short contracts for Semi-wafers (3-6 months) ◦ MEMC is largely a price taker in Semi-wafers ◦ Clean energy is a “like” not “need,” or “want” ◦ Long term supply contracts for Solar wafers  Three out of four have since been renegotiated Industry Rivalry – Very High ◦ Multiple wafer companies competing on price ◦ Semi-wafers are highly commoditized ◦ Competition for subsidized projects ◦ Competition for adoption by competing technologies Semi-Materials and Solar-Materials Industry seems unattractive

DuPont Analysis Profit margin gets squeezed during slowdown due to high fixed costs DuPont Analysis Profit Margin -5.87%19.33%42.99% Asset Turnover 32.63%68.26%66.56% Equity Multiplyer ROE Data provided by Capital IQ as of September 17, 2010

Competitor Analysis Semiconductor Wafers ◦ Shin − Etsu Handotai  Highest Market share at 32.4%  Highly diversified Japanese company ◦ Sumco  29% Market Share 156mm Solar Wafers ◦ LDK Solar  1.23B Market Cap; 1.10B 2009 Revenue ◦ ReneSola  1.13B Market Cap; 510M 2009 Revenue Solar Energy Production ◦ First Solar Inc.  11.77B Market Cap; 2.07B 2009 Revenue  Thin Film Solar ◦ SunPower Corp.  1.3B Market Cap; 1.52B 2009 Revenue December 31, K Yahoo Finance: Tickers LDK, SOL, FSLR, SPWRA respectively

Special Mention Holding $285 million in Goodwill from the purchase of SunEdison we value near $0 December 31, K Balance Sheet provided by EDGARS Online dated March 1, 2010

Key Income Factors R&D $40.4 Mill Marketing and Administrative $161.9 Mill COGS $1,035 Mill Sales: $1,164 Mill Importance Low High December 31, K Income Statement provided by EDGARS Online dated March 1, 2010

MEMC Sells a commodity Sales and cost containment of COGS are primary drivers of profit. COGS are not driven directly by sales. Sales COGS F.A. Turnover Ratio: December 31, K Income Statement provided by EDGARS Online dated March 1, 2010

MEMC Cost Control “The larger 300 mm wafers enable lower production costs, reducing the costs per individual component by approximately 30 percent.” Nanotechnology interview with Craig Barrett, Intel CEO, June 15, Sales COGS “MEMC Moves to Full-Scale 300mm Wafer Production” BUSINESS WIRE Jan. 10, html December 31, K Income Statement provided by EDGARS Online dated March 1, 2010

In 2002 MEMC deployed 300mm wafer technology Sales COGS Adjusted: % % % % 5.5% Historical growth pattern December 31, K Income Statement provided by EDGARS Online dated March 1, 2010

COGS Sales 1, , , , ,163.6 F.A. T/O Ratio Imputed F.A , Remove Sun’s F.A Net F.A Growth of F.A. has slowed to.66%, effectively 0% ANOVA Results: R 2 = 97.5% F-Stat = 58 T-Stat = 13.7 Sales and ratios provided by Capital IQ as of September 17, 2010

MEMC Cost Control MEMC is completing the closure of their two largest manufacturing facilities 33% 1 by square footage compared to the total company to Malaysia. We estimate it will be able to produce 50% of the company’s total output at a 20% cost reduction. This effect has been incorporated into our model at diminishing returns over the next 10 years. 1 MEMC 10-K (.pdf version) dated December 31, 2009: p21

DCF Analysis-Revenue Estimate Sales Estimate is based on industrial analysis and comparison analysis We separate SunEddison and MEMC’s traditional business-Wafer COGS is calculated as a function of MEMC’s cost and SunEdison’s cost. The COGS Margin is declining. Implying their restructuring effect

DCF Analysis-WACC Cost of Debt ◦ 3 Level Rating Float: BB,BBB,A- ◦ Weighted average by comparable analysis ◦ 10 years US note Cost of Equity ◦ Beta  Unlevered Industrial Beta(NYU Report)  Historical Beta (Yahoo Finance) ◦ Risk Premium  Market Return (Bloomberg Estimate with Adjustment)  10 years US note ◦ CPAM: WACC:15.28% Float rate from Standard & Poor

DCF Monte Carlo Stimulation By Crystal Ball

Recommendation The stock is currently trading at $ Our intrinsic value for WFR is $ We therefore recommend a modified holding strategy. Sell the original 200 shares at $13.09 and repurchase them after the waiting period to capture the unrealized loss. Estimated cash to fund would be approximately $3,900 while maintaining our position.