The International Voluntary CO2 Market Current State and Prospects for the Future Casiana Fometescu Consultant Carbon Expert Romania

Contents Volumes and Average Prices Forestry Market Major Players Project Types Long Term Tendencies & Predictions

Transactions Volumes

AVERAGE PRICE

The Forestry Market 17% Volume Increase in 2013 (agriculture, REDD, land-use) Total Volume in 2013: 32.7 MtCo2 Average REDD offset price: $ 4.2 tCO2 Beyond carbon benefits (jobs, investments in infrastructures, education, health) Latin America – top projects supplier

Major Players - Buyers - Sellers - Standard Organizations

What stands for these acronyms? GS – Gold Standard VCS – Verified Carbon Standard CAR – Climate Action Reserve ACR – American Carbon Standard CCB – Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standard SC – Social Carbon

Retirements by Standard Organization

Market Shares

Who are the Sellers? Project Developers Retailers Brokers Government

Transacted Volumes by Seller Types

Who are the Buyers? Offset credit retailers Governments Energy utilities Multinational companies Other sectors (finance, transport, food, events etc.)

BUYER SECTORS

Buyers Motivations Balance between profit – climate driven CSR – corporate social responsibility Leadership in Industry Production Chain Sustainability Marketing and image

Europe – the Main Buyer

Why Europe as the main buyer? The European Union is the main promoter for CO2 emissions reductions The EU ETS is the main pillar of the climate change regulated policy in Europe Much awareness among companies and people 3 European countries currently have “voluntary” legislation: Germany, France, the Netherlands Pilot projects to be extended at the whole EU Romania’s case

Project Types

Average Price by Project Type

Tendencies on Long Term: Standards collaboration – shared expertise Collective management of the projects Less profit More climate change driven motivations Co-benefits beyond carbon

Tendencies on Long Term Rise of CSR in companies/corporations Zero CO2 or emissions – brand for companies Shift of the voluntary market to regulated market. Ex. California, predicted for the EU New buyer sector: Government & Public Institutions Rise of End-buyers: individuals

Predictions for the future Most estimations see a long term price increase together with increase in trading volumes Market value predicted for 2020: 1.8 billion USD (based on historical average price $5.9 tCo2) Volume estimated to 300 MtCO2e in 2020 Reduced projects’ pipeline in the next 5 yeas

Future Trends

Thank you for your attention and take a lead into your industry! Casiana Fometescu CO2 Consultant, Carbon Expert Skype: casianairina