Risk Management October 1998

What is RISK MANAGEMENT? –The process concerned with identification, measurement, control and minimization of security risks in information systems to a level commensurate with the value of the assets protected. ( Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Course Objective –The student will be able to DETERMINE a risk index.

Introduction to Risk Management Implement Risk Management Actions Identify the Risk Areas Re-evaluate the Risks Develop Risk Management Plan Risk Management Cycle Assess the Risks Risk Assessment Risk Mitigation

Balance of Risk Management Risk Ignorance Risk Management Risk Avoidance

RISK - The likelihood that a particular threat using a specific attack, will exploit a particular vulnerability of a system that results in an undesirable consequence. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

THREAT -Any circumstance or event with the potential to cause harm to an information system in the form of destruction, disclosure, adverse modification of data, and/or the denial of service. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Threat Example - Hackers

Threat Example - Electrical Storms

Definition of Likelihood –LIKELIHOOD of the threat occurring is the estimation of the probability that a threat will succeed in achieving an undesirable event.

Considerations in Assessing the Likelihood of Threat –Presence of threats –Tenacity of threats –Strengths of threats –Effectiveness of safeguards

Statistical Threat Data

Two Schools of Thought on Likelihood Calculation Assume Don’t Don’tAssume

ATTACK –An attempt to gain unauthorized access to an information system’s services, resources, or information, or the attempt to compromise an information system’s integrity, availability, or confidentiality, as applicable. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

VULNERABILITY -Weakness in an information system, cryptographic system, or other components (e.g..., system security procedures, hardware design, internal controls) that could be exploited by a threat. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Vulnerability Example

CONSEQUENCE –A consequence is that which logically or naturally follows an action or condition.

RM/RA RISKMANAGEMENT RISKMITIGATION RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK ASSESSMENT -A process of analyzing THREATS to and VULNERABILITIES of an information system and the POTENTIAL IMPACT the loss of information or capabilities of a system would have. The resulting analysis is used as a basis for identifying appropriate and cost-effective counter-measures. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Why Risk Assessment?

Benefits of Risk Assessment –Increased awareness –Assets, vulnerabilities, and controls –Improved basis for decisions –Justification of expenditures

Risk Assessment Process –Identify assets –Determine vulnerabilities –Estimate likelihood of exploitation –Compute expected loss

Identify Assets –People, documentation, supplies

Properties of Value Analysis -Confidentiality -Integrity -Availability -Non-repudiation

Definition -Confidentiality: Assurance that information is not disclosed to unauthorized persons, processes, or devices. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Definition - Integrity: Quality of an information system reflecting the logical correctness and reliability of the operating system; the logical completeness of the hardware and software implementing the protection mechanisms; and the consistency of the data structures and occurrence of the stored data. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Definition -Availability: Timely, reliable access to data and information services for authorized users. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Definition -Non-repudiation: Assurance the sender of data is provided with proof of delivery and the recipient is provided with proof of the sender’s identity, so neither can later deny having processed the data. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Determine Vulnerabilities Open Network Open Communications Lines

Likelihood

Expected Loss

Risk Measure –RISK MEASURE is a description of the kinds and degrees of risk to which the organization or system is exposed.

Communicating Risk –To be useful, the measurement should reflect what is truly important to the organization.

How do we calculate risk?

Primary Risk Calculation Methodologies Q uantitative & Q ualitative

The Quantitative Method

The Qualitative Method

Qualitative Example: –“The system is weak in this area and we know that our adversary has the capability and motivation to get to the data in the system so the likelihood of this event occurring is high.”

Quantitative and Qualitative Merged

Delphi Approach

Probability Density Function

Examples of documented risk assessment systems –Aggregated Countermeasures Effectiveness (ACE) Model –Risk Assessment Tool –Information Security Risk Assessment Model (ISRAM) –Dollar-based OPSEC Risk Analysis (DORA) –Analysis of Networked Systems Security Risks (ANSSR) –Profiles –NSA ISSO INFOSEC Risk Assessment Tool

Formula for Risk dv + zqm/ {2a} bc = wxyz lm +op * dz = tgm\bvd 2b or n2b mkt/40 = 9j*X

Threat and Vulnerability Revisited The capability or intention to exploit, or any circumstance or event with the potential to cause harm such as a hacker. A weakness in a system that can be exploited.

Threat+ Vulnerability

Likelihood Vs. Consequence

Likelihood –The Likelihood of a successful attack is the probability that an adversary would succeed in carrying out an attack.

Factors influencing an attack –Level of threat –Vulnerabilities –Countermeasures applied

Determine Level of Threat –Criteria for evaluating the level of threat: History Capability Intention or motivation

Determine Vulnerabilities

Criteria for Evaluating the Vulnerability –Number of vulnerabilities –Nature of vulnerability –Countermeasures

COUNTERMEASURE –A countermeasure is an action, device, procedure, or technique used to eliminate or reduce one or more vulnerabilities.

Examples of Countermeasures –Procedures: security policies and procedures training personnel transfer –Hardware: doors, window bars, fences paper shredder alarms, badges –Manpower: guard force

CONSEQUENCE –A consequence is that which logically or naturally follows an action or condition.

Determination of the Consequence of the Attack –“The worse the consequence of a threat harming the system, the greater the risk” Attack Consequence Success

Risk Calculation Process –determine: the threat the vulnerability the likelihood of attack the consequence of an attack –apply this formula by: postulating attacks estimating the likelihood of a successful attack evaluating the consequences of those successful attacks

NSA ISSO Risk Assessment Methodology –Developed in the NSA Information Systems Security Organization –Used for INFOSEC Products and Systems –Can Use During Entire life Cycle –Not Widely Used Outside of DI

The NSA ISSO Risk Assessment Process –Understanding the system –Developing attack scenarios –Understanding the severity of the consequences –Creating a risk plane –Generating a report

The Risk Plane X -axis The likelihood of a successful attack Y -axis The severity of the Consequences of that successful attack.

Risk Index Risk Index, as defined by the “Yellow Book”, is the disparity between the minimum clearance or authorization of system users and the maximum sensitivity of data processed by a system.

Risk Index –Minimum User Clearance=Rmin –Maximum Data Sensitivity=Rmax –Risk Index=Rmax - Rmin

Rating Scale for Minimum User Clearance (Rmin)

Rating Scale for Maximum Data Sensitivity (Rmax)

Computer Security Requirements * = Security Requirements Beyond State of the Art

Automated Risk Assessment Tools

NIST Special Publication

LAVA L Los A Alamos V Vulnerability and Risk A Assessment Tool

Threats Considered by LAVA –natural and environmental hazards –accidental and intentional on-site human threats (including the authorized insider) –off-site human threats

RiskPAC –a knowledge-based system that uses a questionnaire metaphor to interact with the user and measure risk in government-related and other topics.

A.L.E. A Annualized L Loss E Exposure Calculator

RISKWATCH

Risk Management Research Laboratory

Risk Mitigation –Risk Mitigation is any step taken to reduce risk.

Residual Risk –Portion of risk remaining after security measures have been applied. (Definition from National Information Systems Security (INFOSEC) Glossary, NSTISSI No. 4009, Aug. 1997)

Residual Risk and Safeguards

Summary –Risk Mitigation –Risk Calculation Methods –Risk Index

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Sampling of General INFOSEC Resources on the Web Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) Awareness and Training Facility: Information Security News: Information Security Mall: National INFOSEC Education Colloquium: International Information Systems Security Certification Consortium: National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) Computer Security Clearinghouse: National INFOSEC Telecommunications and Information Systems Security Committee(NSTISSC): President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection: Security Site Links:

Sampling of Web Addresses for Colleges and Universities with INFOSEC Courses, Programs, Centers Dartmouth College: George Mason University Center for Secure Info Systems: Georgia Tech Information Security Center: Harvard University: Idaho State University: Indiana University: Iowa State: James Madison University: National Defense University: North Carolina State University: Purdue University: University of California at Davis: University of Texas, Austin: Western Connecticut State University: