Market Analysis Moving Averages A2 Business Studies.

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Presentation transcript:

Market Analysis Moving Averages A2 Business Studies

Starter ‘Mallet of Panic’ Topic 1: Species of British Wildlife Topic 2: Brands of Confectionary Topic 3: Marketing Key Terms

Aims and Objectives Aim: To understand Moving Averages. Objectives: Define and explain Moving Averages Describe the use of Moving Averages. Analyse the usefulness of Extrapolation

Moving Averages Definition: A technique for identifying an underlying trend by smoothing out fluctuations in sales data. –Fluctuations may be caused by seasonal demand etc.

Three Month Moving Average Method: Add together three consecutive months data. Calculate an average.

Method MonthSales (£000s)Calculation3 Month Moving Average January24 February27 March29 April29 May32 June27

Case Study 4Sport Gym

MonthSales (£000s)Calculation3 month Moving Average January24 February27( ) / March29( ) / April29 May32 June27 July31 August32 September34 October38 November39 December39

Task 1 MonthSales (£000s)Calculation3 month Moving Average January24 February27( ) / March29( ) / April29( ) / 330 May32( ) / June27( ) / 330 July31( ) / 330 August32( ) / September34( ) / October38( ) / 337 November39( ) / December39

Task 2 Fluctuation 2

Task 3 The PresentThe Future

Three Month Moving Averages Takes out variations in financial figures. Eg. Seasonal factors. Timescale ie. 3 month/ 4 month/ 12 month depends on nature of business. Supermarkets use short time periods. Construction firms use longer time periods.

Extrapolation Taking past and present data about a market and using an identified underlying trend to predict future sales.

Benefits & Drawbacks of Extrapolation In groups decide on your whiteboards on the benefits and drawbacks of extrapolation. You may wish to consider the following: –Budgets, motivation –Objective setting –Pitfalls of prediction –Type of market the business is in

Benefits and Drawbacks of Extrapolation Benefits Can provide information for the setting of functional/corp. objectives. Aid the setting of budgets and workforce planning. Drawbacks Prediction relies on the past. Fine in slow moving markets. Can be misleading in fast paced markets such as technology where constant R&D is required.