Paul J. Flores ABS Consulting

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Presentation transcript:

Paul J. Flores ABS Consulting Introduction Paul J. Flores ABS Consulting

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Community Demonstration Grant Program Introductions Brief overview of FIT and the Community Demonstration Grant Program

Brief Overview of HAZUS Flood Model Levels of Analysis Function of the Flood Information Tool (FIT)

Link HAZUS with Hydraulic Model HAZUS Flood Model: Levels of Analysis Community-Specific Damage Functions Link HAZUS with Hydraulic Model Damage Flood Depth Level 3 Expert Supplied Data Level 2 User Modified Data Modify Building Inventory Aerial Photo Level 1 Default Databases Level 1 Use Default Databases Levels of Analysis To provide flexibility, the model estimates losses at three levels. For each level, the several hazards and the various types of input data can be selectively used as appropriate, to meet the needs of the user. Level 1 uses HAZUS default data to facilitate rapid estimates of damage. Default databases for various national databases describe the hydrology, terrain, and building inventory. Level 2 allows for user-modified data for building inventory, terrain types, and occupancy. Level 3 allows for expert assignment of hydraulic model data, damage functions, and loss functions.

HAZUS Flood Information Tool The intent of the FIT is to facilitate the processing of locally available flood hazard information for a Level 2 Analysis Level 3 Input data flood- plain specific Level 2 Combinations of local and default flood hazard, building, and damage data To provide flexibility, the model estimates losses at three levels. For each level, the several hazards and the various types of input data can be selectively used as appropriate, to meet the needs of the user. User effort and data is the least in Level 1, and increases with levels 2 and 3. Level 1 Default flood hazard, inventory, and damage information

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Summary Description The FIT, when given user-supplied inputs (e.g. ground elevations, flood elevations, and floodplain boundary information), will calculate a flood depth and elevation for riverine and coastal hazards. The FIT is a system of instructions, tutorials and GIS analysis scripts used to determine the extent, depth and elevation of flooding by pre-processing user-supplied flood hazard data. The focus is on assisting the users to manipulate their data into the format required by the flood model for the estimation of losses.

Overview of FIT Community Demonstration Grant Program Program Objectives Program Schedule Technical Support

Program Objectives Continue the practice of involving users in the development of the HAZUS Flood Model. Involve communities that are active in flood plain management in the beta testing of the FIT. Apply the beta test results in improving the FIT before its general general release in April 2002.

FIT Demonstration Communities: Selection Criteria The Community will have interest in identifying the flood hazard for their community as shown by their commitment to collecting improved hazard data. This interest will be greater for those communities with a severe flood hazard and significant population exposure.

FIT Demonstration Communities: Selection Criteria The community must have ArcView Version 8.1.2 and the associated Spatial Analyst extension. Ideally, the community would have had recent flooding and have captured the depth of flooding at various known locations. This information could be used to validate the FIT results.

FIT Demonstration Communities Selection Criteria (Cont.) The Community will have digital terrain information with better resolution than the 30-meter National Elevation Dataset available from the USGS. The resolution of the terrain information will determine the size of the resultant flood depth and elevation grids.

FIT Demonstration Communities Selection Criteria (Cont.) The Community will have digital flood hazard information such as cross sections with elevation attributes and an associated flood boundary. The Community will have a variety of situations (bridges, backwaters, etc) such that the FIT is reasonably tested.

FIT Demonstration Communities Selection Criteria (Cont.) Note that communities with hardcopy flood information that are willing to convert this data into a digital format may also be a candidate. However, this will require additional effort as well as their ability to properly digitize the data.

FIT Beta Testing Process Provide community participants with training on the use of the FIT. Provide community participants with technical support during the beta testing process. Establish procedures for systematically documenting the results of the beta testing process.

FIT Community Demonstration Program Schedule February-02 March-02 April-02 May-02 Fit Training Beta Documentation Technical Support FIT Code Modifications FIT Modification Testing FIT Delivery to NIBS

FIT Training Course Agenda  

FIT Training Course Agenda  

Overview of HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Neil Blais – ABS Consulting and Ed Mifflin – Michael Baker Jr., Inc. The HAZUS Flood Model is being developed for FEMA under contract with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). EQE International and project partner Michael Baker Jr. Inc. are the flood model subcontractors to NIBS. The flood model has an oversight committee composed of floodplain management practitioners from across the nation. NIBS has also created a software oversight committee to help guide the integration of the three loss estimation tools (Earthquake, Wind, and Flood). The Flood and a preview version of the Wind model will be incorporated with the earthquake model in HAZUS03 scheduled for release near the end of 2002.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Objectives Standardized, nationally applicable methodology. Accommodate user requirements to the maximum extent possible. Estimates for riverine and coastal flooding. Incorporate user-supplied data to enhance results. The purpose of the HAZUS flood model is to produce loss estimates on a local and regional scale. It is anticipated that loss estimates will be used primarily by local, regional, and state officials involved in developing policies and programs for hazard mitigation, disaster preparedness, emergency response, and recovery planning. The USACE has expressed interest in using the model to develop preliminary estimates for flood projects.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Model Development Approach Identify User Requirements Evaluate Alternative Methods Perform “Proof-of-Concept Exercises” Develop Software Requirements with User Input Develop Software Pilot Test Release From the beginning, the flood model has attempted to identify and incorporate key features that will enable flood model users to resolve issues and problems of importance to them. The flood model is the only HAZUS model authorized to seek user input through every phase of development. The methodology has undergone Proof-of-Concept analysis and acceptance by the flood committee. Furthermore, the project team has tested the methodology in actual applications with select users.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model User Requirements Phoenix, AZ Flood Model User’s Workshop Interviews with 55 potential users Both ASFPM members and non-members Local, state , and federal government officials Private sector consultants In-depth interviews with 25 Formation of Users Group (18 users) for duration of project The approach to collecting the user requirements started with a global wish list and through increasingly detailed interviews have settled on very specific requirements. The user group is currently reviewing the FIT prototype. They will also have the opportunity to review the Flood Model Prototype when completed.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model User Requested Applications Development and enforcement of building standards Analyzing benefits of flood warnings Benefit/cost analysis for selection of mitigation alternatives Identification of areas for building acquisition / relocation Information dissemination / public relations Disaster declaration assistance Prioritizing watersheds (Austin, TX) Analyzing impacts of new mapping (Mecklenberg, NC) Forecasting impacts of new development (Mecklenberg, NC) A listing of key user applications highlighted during user interviews.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Methodology 4. Estimate Losses 3. Determine Damage 2. Define and Overlay Inventory Overview of flood methodology: From the bottom up, the basic structure of the methodology is: 1. Define Hazard, by combining the flood surface and the land surface. 2. Define and overlay the Inventory (ie, the numbers and patterns of buildings, people and other facilities). 3. Determine the Damage, by determining the depth of water at each building or facility, referring to a depth-damage curve to determine % damage, 4. Estimate losses, by multiplying the % damage by the monetary value of the building, or by referring to other curves, tables and data to determine for example the required duration of vacancy of a building, as a function of the % damage. 1. Define Hazard: Flood Surface Land Surface

Link HAZUS with Hydraulic Model Levels of Analysis Community-Specific Damage Functions Link HAZUS with Hydraulic Model Damage Flood Depth Level 3 Expert Supplied Data Level 2 User Modified Data Modify Building Inventory Aerial Photo Level 1 Default Databases Level 1 Use Default Databases Levels of Analysis To provide flexibility, the model estimates losses at three levels. For each level, the several hazards and the various types of input data can be selectively used as appropriate, to meet the needs of the user. Level 1 uses HAZUS default data to facilitate rapid estimates of damage. Default databases for various national databases describe the hydrology, terrain, and building inventory. Level 2 allows for user-modified data for building inventory, terrain types, and occupancy. Level 3 allows for expert assignment of hydraulic model data, damage functions, and loss functions.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Levels of Analysis Input data flood- plain specific Required user effort and data sophistication Combinations of local and default flood hazard, building, and damage data Level 2 To provide flexibility, the model estimates losses at three levels. For each level, the several hazards and the various types of input data can be selectively used as appropriate, to meet the needs of the user. User effort and data is the least in Level 1, and increases with levels 2 and 3. Level 1 Default flood hazard, inventory, and damage information

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Combinations of local and default flood hazard, building, and damage data Default flood hazard, inventory, and damage information Input data flood- plain specific FIT-Hazard A Flood Information Tool (FIT) for characterizing the flood hazard will be developed to facilitate a Level 2 Analysis To provide flexibility, the model estimates losses at three levels. For each level, the several hazards and the various types of input data can be selectively used as appropriate, to meet the needs of the user. User effort and data is the least in Level 1, and increases with levels 2 and 3.

Flood Hazard Analysis Tool FIRM or DFIRM data Registration, Projection, Translation Depth of Flooding Flood Hazard Analysis Tool Raster Process Count of Flood Depth Grid Cells by Block Loss Estimation Loss Estimation by Block Ground Elevation Coastal BFEs Flood Surface Or Digitized Stream Cross Sections Attributed with Flood Elevation Digitized BFEs from FIRM Census Blocks DEM Contour Data TIN Damage Curves Default Inventory Valuation User Supplied FIT-Hazard Flood Model Users who want to replace the default hazard data within the HAZUS Flood Model will need to use the FIT. The above diagram shows how the FIT will accept the users flood information and terrain data and output depth and elevation grids. These grids will be imported into the flood model for use in the users analysis. The FIT will not import nor modify inventory data. This will require the use of the Building Information Tool (BIT) or the Inventory Collection and Analysis Tool (InCAST).

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model FIT Requirements The FIT operates as an extension to ArcGIS Version 8.1. The FIT requires the Spatial Analyst extension to ArcGIS 8.1. Input required data (terrain elevation, flood elevation, flood boundary). Wizards guide the user though the data manipulation. ESRI is in the process of releasing their next generation software called ArcGIS. In developing the FIT to operate within ArcView, it became apparent that for the long term development in ArcGIS 8.1 is the appropriate action. Interviews with the users indicated that they agreed with this assessment. The development in ArcGIS provides the added advantage of allowing both ArcView users and ArcInfo users to utilize the FIT. NOTE: The flood model itself (along with the Earthquake and Wind) will be GIS platform independent when HAZUS03 is released. Only the FIT will have the requirement of using ArcGIS and Spatial Analyst.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Requirements The Flood Model is an application that will call ArcGIS Version 8.1 objects for functionality. The Flood Model requires the user to have a ArcGIS 8.1 and Spatial Analyst licenses. The user will be required to provide the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) The Model will guide the user on how to obtain NED data from the USGS. ESRI is in the process of releasing their next generation software called ArcGIS. In developing the FIT to operate within ArcView, it became apparent that for the long term development in ArcGIS 8.1 is the appropriate action. Interviews with the users indicated that they agreed with this assessment. The development in ArcGIS provides the added advantage of allowing both ArcView users and ArcInfo users to utilize the FIT. NOTE: The flood model itself (along with the Earthquake and Wind) will be GIS platform independent when HAZUS03 is released. Only the FIT will have the requirement of using ArcGIS and Spatial Analyst.

HAZUS Flood Model Overview INVENTORY Buildings Infrastructure Population Land Use DIRECT DAMAGE General Building Stock Essential Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities Transportation Facilities Lifelines INDUCED DAMAGE Fire Following Flood Hazardous Materials Release Debris Generation INDIRECT LOSSES DIRECT LOSSES Cost of Repairs/Replacement Income Loss Crop Damage Casualties Shelter and Recovery Needs Supply Shortages Sales Decline Opportunity Costs Economic Loss Frequency Discharge Depth/Elevation Velocity Duration FLOOD HAZARD This slides shows the above process in a simplified flow chart format, with a listing of some of the key parameters in the model.

Surfaces Used to Develop Depth Grid

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Ground Surface Topographic information is user-supplied Required format: ArcGIS grid The FIT is designed to assist the user in converting their digital terrain information into an ESRI grid. Primarily this is done through help files that assist the user in accessing the conversion capabilities resident within ArcGIS and Spatial Analyst. The terrain grid size directly determines the size of the cells used in developing the flood depth grid. FIT includes tutorials for conversion of topographic data (contours, spot elevations, TINs) to grid format

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Floodplain Boundary Defines the limit of analysis Required format: ESRI polygon Self-explanatory Potential sources: DFIRM, FEMA Q3

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine Centerline Centerline represents the general direction of flow The centerline is developed by determining which grid cells are closer to the left boundary line or right boundary line of the floodplain boundary discussed in the previous slide. Those cells that fall between the two boundaries are connected to form the centerline.

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine Bounding Polygon Buffer the centerline to define the extent of the flood surface The FIT assists the user in the development of the bounding polygon. The user can easily expand and contract the polygon to meet their needs. Wizard driven, the last few screens require a minimum of user interaction, but maximizes the users capabilities to modify the parameters.

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine BFE Lines Lines of flood elevations are user-supplied Upstream and downstream limits identify the elevation lines within area of interest The user will supply the flood elevation information. Typically this will be done with cross-section lines attributed with flood elevations. Cross sections with three flood elevations attributed will allow the user to create three depth grids and interpolate to find other depths they may not have attribute information for.

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine Flow Corridors Flood elevation lines extended to the edge of the buffer, perpendicular to flow corridors As the buffer is expanded by the user, the cross sections are extended perpendicular to the boundary lines. In essence, the each buffer represents a flow tube through which the elevation attributes are interpolated from cell to cell.

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine Flood Elevation Interpolation Elevations interpolated between flood elevation lines

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine Flood Surface Convert to a regularly-spaced grid of flood elevations

Flood Information Tool (FIT) Riverine Depth Grid & Backwater Analysis After the completing the depth grid wizard, potential backwater areas are identified. The user can draw backwater polygons in these areas and assign a flood elevation to them. These areas are then appended to the flood depth grid. The user can repeat the process for other return periods and (if the user creates 3 diverse return periods) interpolate for other return periods.

Using Grids ... X

Are There Any Questions?

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Riverine Hazard

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Riverine Hazard Objective Determine the relationship between depth and frequency throughout the floodplain

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Hydrologic Analysis Overview Objective: determine the discharge-frequency relationship for each reach in the study area Gaged reaches – derive curves from the USGS Streamflow Basin Characteristics File Ungaged reaches – apply USGS regression equations Regulated basins – methodology under development

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Analysis Extent Buffer and reach limits define extent of analysis

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Cross-Section Placement Cross-sections evenly spaced, normal to centerline

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Flood Elevation Determination Elevation computed using Manning’s equation Interpolate elevations between cross-sections

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Flood Depth Determination MSL Ground Elevation Flood Elevation Subtract ground surface from flood surface to determine flood depth at all locations in the study area

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Baseline Inventory

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Inventory Overview Buildings Infrastructure Population Land Use Default data for general building stock and essential facilities The flood model will contain default inventory data for buildings and essential facilities. The modeling of flood losses requires the flood-sensitive structural categories to categorize the general building stock. These include first floor elevation and the presence of a basement. Building data include parameters related to flood damage (e.g., first floor elevation) Building Information Tool assists users in replacing baseline data

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Baseline Inventory Review Provided at the Census Block Level Residential from US Census Data, Commercial / Industrial from Dun & Bradstreet Other inventory estimated from commercial data Consistent Occupancy Classifications with other HAZUS Models Residential floor area includes valuation socio-economic parameters for consistency.

Cost of Repairs/Replacement Shelter and Recovery Needs HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Losses DIRECT LOSSES Cost of Repairs/Replacement Income Loss Crop Damage Casualties Shelter and Recovery Needs INDIRECT LOSSES Supply Shortages Sales Decline Opportunity Costs Economic Loss Two methods supported for estimating replacement value of structures: Full replacement value Depreciated replacement value Preview Model - Valuation Both full replacement value and depreciated replacement value estimation is supported The need for shelter is calculated using default functions relating building damage to habitability and restoration time Shelter need functions relate building damage to habitability and restoration time

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Valuation Valuation models based on industry standard cost data published in R. S. Means “Square Foot Costs”. Approach for estimating full replacement value and depreciated value is consistent with existing HAZUS earthquake model. Model selection tested in Proof-of-Concept Communities.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Direct Building Damage Default depth-damage models assigned to each HAZUS occupancy. Source models include FIA, IWR, USACE FIA depth-damage curves modified to include policy exclusions (basement) Curve Library Compiled. User may use default model or select another from library. Proof-of-Concept Testing.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Depth-Damage Function Library FIA - CWDD, V Zone Other Coastal - Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, Delaware USACE District Curves - Chicago, Galveston, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia, St. Paul, and Wilmington. USACE IWR - “national standard” residential curve (2000). Other curves under development.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model FIA Policy Exclusions Limited coverage in basements and enclosed areas below elevated Post-FIRM buildings. Items not covered: Contents/Personal Property Improvements such as finished walls, floors & ceilings (unpainted walls & ceilings covered in basements only) Building equipment and fixtures not specifically covered (e.g., required utility connections, furnaces, water heaters and washer/dryers are covered)

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model FIA Damage Function Modification Project team expert opinion used to estimate potential damage to excluded elements for each water depth and each building type, to adjust damage function to cover all building elements and contents.

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Basement-Modified FIA Depth-Damage Curve for Structure Damage 80 Original Credibility-Weighted Depth Damage 70 Revised FIA-based Depth Damage Function, Including Fin. Base Damage 60 50 Damage (% of RC) 40 30 20 10 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Water Depth (feet)

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Sample Output Crystal Reports is included in the flood model and can be used to produce a wide range of output reports. Flooding extents and depths can be combined with inventory data to develop loss estimates at multiple levels of detail

HAZUS Flood Loss Estimation Model Project Schedule Task Completion Develop flood loss estimation methodology Spring 2002 Flood Information Tool Software development Summer 2001 Flood Information Tool Release Spring 2002 Flood Model Software development Summer 2002 Pilot test and calibrate Fall 2002 Release HAZUS03 (with Flood Model) Early 2003