Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3 Dennis Reid Bureau of Labor Statistics San Francisco Regional Office October 2014

2 Bureau of Labor Statistics The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations

3 Fed/State Cooperative Programs Partnership with eight States & Guam Contract: LMI & OSHS Cooperative Agreements BLS → States – $, procedures, sample selection, systems, manuals, training (OSHS: 50% funding by law) – Ensure consistency across all states States → BLS – Collect, process and edit the data – Analyze/publish State and area data BLS ↔ States – Policy collaboration via Workforce Information Council and Program Policy Councils

4 Labor Force Programs Overview BLS and the Federal/State Cooperative Programs Comparison of programs NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages “ES-202”) CES (Current Employment Statistics) OES (Occupational Employment Statistics) CPS (Current Population Survey) LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics) JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) OSHS (Occupational Safety & Health Statistics)

Comparison of Labor Force and OSHS Programs QCEWCESOESCPSLAUSJOLTSSOIICFOI Data Collected by States & BLSBLSStates & BLS ROsCensus Bureau Input from CPS, CES, UI BLSStates and BLS Data Collected from Establishments Households Input from CPS, CES, UI Establishments various sources Estimate or Universe Count? UniverseEstimate Universe Frequency of Collection Quarterly for monthly data MonthlySemi-AnnualMonthly Annualon a flow basis Frequency of Publication Quarterly & Annual MonthlyAnnualMonthly Annual Major Data Types Published UI covered employment & wages by industry Nonfarm employment, hours, hourly earnings by industry Occupational employment & wages by area and industry Civilian labor force, employment, unemployment, Unemp. rate for the nation Civilian labor force, employment, unemployment, Unemp. rate for States & local areas Nonfarm job openings, hires, and separations by industry and region Workplace Injuries and Illnesses Workplace Fatalities Geographic Detail Published County, MSAs, State, USA MSAs, State, USA USA Cities & towns 25,000+, County, LMA, MSA, State, Census Division & Region Census Region and USA USA and most States MSAs, State, USA Demographic Detail Published NoneWomen WorkersNone Extensive Demographic Detail None Gender, age, race/ethnicity Are Data Benchmarked? No, QCEW is a benchmark Yes, to QCEW NoYes, to CPSYes, to CESYes, to QCEW No, CFOI is a universe count Major Uses Sample frame & benchmark Economic Indicator Foreign Labor Certification, Planning training & educational programs Economic Indicator Economic Indicator, Allocation of funds Economic Indicator Workplace safety programs Time from Reference Period to 1st BLS Publication 6 months or more USA- 3 weeks; States- 5 weeks; MSAs- 7 weeks 10 months3 weeks States- 5 weeks; Areas- 7 weeks 4-6 weeks after reference month 10 months8 months

6 Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

7 OES Survey OES collects detailed occupational and wage information by industry and area Semi-annual establishment survey Primarily a mail survey NOT a time series (no overlapping sample units to measure change) All 50 states Plus DC, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands Big change in 1996: wage collection for all States

8 OES Sample Design 1.2 million establishments 3-year collection cycle 400,000 surveyed annually in two panels (May and November) Estimates are based on the total sample of 1.2 million collected over three years (6 panels) Wage data for 2.5 previous years (5 panels) are updated using ECI-based factors (ECI = Employment Cost Index)

9 OES Universe and Sampling Frame BLS draws sample twice a year (2nd, 4th quarters) QCEW is the sampling frame Includes establishments in  Nonfarm industries  Agricultural services  Federal, State, and Local governments Stratified by Area, Industry and Size Class The larger an establishment, the more likely it will be included in the 3-year OES sample Sample distribution across states was “fixed” since 1996; dynamic starting in 2010

10 Workers in scope of OES survey Full or part-time paid workers Workers on paid leave Workers assigned temporarily to other units Paid owners, officers, and staff of incorporated firms

11 Workers not in scope of OES survey Proprietors, owners, and partners of unincorporated firms Self-employed individuals Unpaid family workers Workers on unpaid leave Contractors & temporary help (not on the establishment’s payroll)

12 What is an OES Wage? Straight-time gross pay exclusive of premium pay. OES Wage Includes: Base Rate Cost-of-Living Allowances Guaranteed Pay Hazardous Duty Pay Portal-to-Portal Pay Incentive Pay, e.g. Commissions, Piece Rates & Production Bonuses Length-of-Service Allowances [Longevity Pay] Tips Deadheading Pay

13 OES Wage excludes: Attendance Bonuses Back Pay Draw Premium Pay for Holidays/Weekends Jury Duty Pay Meal & Lodging Allowances Merchandise Discounts Non-Production Bonuses Holiday Bonuses Overtime Pay Profit Sharing Relocation Allowances Severance Pay Shift Differentials Stock Bonuses Uniform Allowance

14 OES Survey Activities Draw sample from the universe Survey form production - by central printer Mail-out of survey forms - by central printer Data collection Data entry Data review and editing Estimation Publication

15 OES Data Collected Occupation and wage data of all employees for units sampled  This information is stored listing the occupational employment distribution for each unit sampled by wage interval (or range)

16 November 2013 OES Wage Ranges  Hourly Rates under $ and over ( Note: Ranges for May 2013 and prior panels were lower)  Annual Rates under $19,240 19, ,439 24, ,679 30, ,999 39, ,919 49, ,919 62, ,079 80, , , , , , , , ,000 and over

17 OES Survey Forms Are specific to industries or groups of industries (~100 industry-specific versions) List occupations that occur in the surveyed industry (longest has 225 occupations) “Non form” reporting  Collection by phone/ ; files/printouts In 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form)

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19 Non-form OES Reporting Some firms return printouts or electronic payroll files, which are coded by OES State or regional office staff Some data are collected/coded by regional office National Compensation Survey staff Many firms report data over the phone collection 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form)

20 Standard Occupational Classification The standard occupational classification (SOC) is a system designed to:  Classify all occupations in the economy, including private, public, and military occupations  Provide a means to compare occupational data across government agencies Revised periodically:  2010 revision, finalized in 2009, implemented in 2010 Net new job count is 19; 2 of them “green”  2018 SOC revision in the works

21 SOC Classification Levels Broad categories lead to unique 6-digit codes for each occupation: 22 Major groups ; divided into Minor groups ; divided into Broad occupations ; divided into Detailed occupations

22 SOC Structure Example : Major Group: Education, Training, and Library Occupations Minor Group: Teachers, Primary, Secondary & Special Education Broad Occupation: Teachers, Elementary & Middle School Detailed Occupation: Teachers, Elementary

23 OES Data Produced by BLS Types of estimates Employment Wages (mean, median, 10 th, 25 th, 75 th 90 th wage rate percentiles) Industry Cross-industry and by 3- and 4-digit NAICS Examples: Cross Industry:All Nurses By NAICS industry:Nurses working in hospitals Geography National, State, MSAs Special wages for Foreign Labor Certification (FLC) Produced, but not published by BLS States use Estimates Delivery System (EDS)

24 Some Hawaii OES Data Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

25 Users of OES Data  Employment and Training Administration’s Foreign Labor Certification program (FLC)  J ob Seekers and Counselors  Vocational Educational Planners  Business Associations  Employers  BLS (for occupational projections)

Employment Projections Background 10-year projections made every 2 years projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries BLS projections prepared at the national level only 26

Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected In thousands of people

Employment Outlook: Industry Employment 28

Employment 29 Millions of jobs Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

Employment Growth Projections 30 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

Employment Outlook: Occupational Employment 33

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change 34

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group 35 Projected Average= 10.8%

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group 36 Projected Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group 37 Thousands of jobs, projected

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group 38 Thousands of jobs, projected

Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs 39 1,530. 1,052.6

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group 40 Thousands of job openings, projected

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group 41 Thousands of job openings, projected

Fastest Growing Occupations 42 Percent change, projected Median annual wages, May 2012 $83,580 $19,910 $20,820 $39,170 $45,430 $65,860 $28,220 $53,240 $56,800 $52,160

Median annual wages, May 2012 $19,910 $65,470 $21,110 $20,820 $18,260 $24,420 $32,410 $30,580 $22,320 $29,990 Thousands of jobs, projected Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 43

Occupations with the Most Job Openings 44 Thousands of job openings, projected Median annual wages, May 2012 $21,110 $18,260 $18,970 $18,540 $65,470 $30,580 $23,890 $27,470 $22,320 $19,910

Fastest Declining Occupations 45 Percent change, projected Median annual wages, May 2012 $35,250 $44,920 $24,310 $53,090 $32,880 $53,090 $33,020 $24,050 $56,490 $19,830

Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines 46 Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May 2012 $69,300 $56,490 $28,010 $21,270 $53,090 $18,670 $35,270 $53,090 $32,400 $28,630

Hawaii: Short-term Forecasts 47

Contact Information Dennis Reid Assistant Regional Commissioner San Francisco