The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The Impacts of the Indian Ocean warming trend on African Climate. Dan Hodson and Rowan Sutton NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of.
Advertisements

North Pacific and North Atlantic multidecadal variability: Origin, Predictability, and Implications for Model Development Thanks to: J. Ba, N. Keenlyside,
Considering Climate Variability & Change TOGETHER Lisa Goddard International Research Institute for Climate & Society The Earth Institute of Columbia University.
Warming Hole-fact or fiction? Vasu Misra Florida State University.
Observed Tropical Expansion: Impact on the Hydrological and Energy Cycles New Investigator Research Summary Joel Norris (Lead PI, UC San Diego) Robert.
El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] NORMAL: - Easterly trade winds between ± 30° latitude (Coriolis Force) - Sea Surface Height slant to west - Warm basin.
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A.
1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Catrin Mills About me Atmospheric Scientist Postdoc fellow working with John Cassano In CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research.
The 1997/98 ENSO event. Multivariate ENSO Index Index is based on 6 parameters relevant to phase.
Reconciling net TOA flux/ocean heating in observations and models 5-yr running means (Smith et al. 2015)Smith et al Spurious ocean data? CERES ERBS/reconReanalysis/recon.
Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.
Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.
Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.
Review High Resolution Modeling of Steric Sea-level Rise Tatsuo Suzuki (FRCGC,JAMSTEC) Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability 6-9 June, 2006 Paris,
SIO 210: ENSO conclusion Dec. 2, 2004 Interannual variability (end of this lecture + next) –Tropical Pacific: El Nino/Southern Oscillation –Southern Ocean.
Climate Change Projections of the Tasman Sea from an Ocean Eddy- resolving Model – the importance of eddies Richard Matear, Matt Chamberlain, Chaojiao.
Jae-Heung Park, Soon-Il An. 1.Introduction 2.Data 3.Result 4. Discussion 5. Summary.
STUDI Land Surface Change & Arctic Land Warming Department of Geography Jianmin Wang The Ohio State University 04/06/
The speaker took this picture on 11 December, 2012 over the ocean near Japan. 2014/07/29 AOGS 11th Annual Meeting in Sapporo.
What is the Difference Between Weather and Climate?
Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng
Drivers of multidecadal variability in JJA ozone concentrations in the eastern United States Lu Shen, Loretta J. Mickley School of Engineering and Applied.
Clara Deser, NCAR Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon.
Detecting Change in the Bering Sea Ecosystem Sergei Rodionov 1, James E. Overland 2, Nicholas A. Bond 1 1 JISAO, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.
CDC Cover. NOAA Lab roles in CCSP Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Research Elements Element 3. Atmospheric Composition Aeronomy.
Implications of climate variability & change 1 WMO Expert Meeting on CAT Insurance & Weather Risk Management Markets December 7, 2007 Climate Variability.
ENSO Variability in SODA: SULAGNA RAY BENJAMIN GIESE TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY WCRP 2010, Paris, Nov
Climate Forecasting Unit Attribution of the global temperature plateau Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo and.
Didier Swingedouw, Laurent Terray, Christophe Cassou, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas-Mélia, Jérôme Servonnat CERFACS, France ESCARSEL project Natural forcing.
Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,
Dynamics and Predictability of the AMOC Mojib Latif, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research and Kiel University Co-workers: J. Ba, H. Ding, R. J. Greatbatch,
Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate Gerald A. Meehl and Aixue Hu.
Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 The Influences of Changes.
Trends in Tropical Water Vapor ( ): Satellite and GCM Comparison Satellite Observed ---- Model Simulated __ Held and Soden 2006: Robust Responses.
Trends in Tropical Water Vapor ( ): Satellite and GCM Comparison Satellite Observed ---- Model Simulated __ Held and Soden 2006: Robust Responses.
2010/ 11/ 16 Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng
INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.
Hurricane Frequency and Sea Surface Temperature EAS 4803 Sheliza Bhanjee.
9.4- Natural causes of climate change. Climate change is NOT new; it’s happened many times before Note: None of natural causes of climate change accounts.
Modeling North Pacific Decadal Variations and Their Teleconnection Patterns Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng.
Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) © Crown copyright 09/2015 | Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks Met Office FitzRoy Road,
Didier Swingedouw LSCE, France Large scale signature of the last millennium variability: challenges for climate models.
Climate Variability and Basin Scale Forcing over the North Atlantic Jim Hurrell Climate and Global Dynamics Division National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Climate Forecasting Unit Attributing the global warming slowdown of the last decade and the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum V. Guemas (1,2), F. J. Doblas-Reyes.
GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation against observations and projections for future change G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo October 20, 2015 NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Lecture 9: Air-Sea Interactions EarthsClimate_Web_Chapter.pdfEarthsClimate_Web_Chapter.pdf, p ; Ch. 16, p ; Ch. 17, p
Homework 1 Solutions. Problem One Use Clausius-Clapeyron Curve From 0 o C to 3 o C – Change of ~1mb From 25 o C to 28 o C – Change of ~5mb (8)
WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Advancing Climate Prediction Science – Decadal Prediction Mojib Latif Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel University,
The Hiatus The Pause The Thing John W. Nielsen-Gammon Regents Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University Texas State Climatologist.
Regional Climate, Extremes, and Impacts presented by Andrew Wittenberg NOAA/GFDL Regional temperature trends, and the 2012 MAM warm anomaly over the eastern.
Oceans & El Nino Ocean-atmosphere coupling matters.
Dynamic Climatology Presentation Speaker : Pei-Yu Chueh Date : 2011/01/10.
How Convection Currents Affect Weather and Climate.
Tentative reconstruction of the recent Hiatus using IPSL-CM5A-LR
June Haiyan Teng NCAR/CGD
Influence of climate variability and
ENSO Impacts in Central Andes
Overview of 2016/17 Winter Climate over South Korea
El Niño and La Niña.
What Has Caused the Observed Warming over Recent Decades? Pressure?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results
Sea Surface Temperature Trends in the Gulf of Alaska
New energy budget estimates at top of Earth’s atmosphere and surface
Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Will Cooke, and Xiaosong Yang
Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute, Ansan, Republic of Korea
Volcanic Climate Impacts and ENSO Interaction
Process oriented evaluation of coupled climate-carbon cycle models
Presentation transcript:

The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Recent climate trends… ERA-Interim SLP and wind stress trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Recent climate trends… AVISO sea surface height trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Recent climate trends… HadISST sea surface temperature trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Recent climate trends… GISS surface air temperature trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Recent Pacific Ocean trends…. England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? SPIN UP OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE Half the hiatus England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

What does this mean for climate projections….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

What does this mean for climate projections….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

How unusual are the wind trends….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Do models capture the magnitude of decadal variability seen in OBS? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Recent OBS wind trends vs. models England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Conclusions Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Conclusions Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented Missing in CMIP models England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Conclusions Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented Missing in CMIP models Cooling impact can account for the hiatus Ocean heat uptake Teleconnections from cool East Pacific SST Hiatus could persist for much of the present decade Warming out of hiatus likely rapid England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

Greg Johnson NOAA / PMEL

England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Role of trade winds in mid-20 th Century hiatus

England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change