The Influence of the Downstream State on ET: Danielle and Earl (1998) Ron McTaggart-Cowan John Gyakum, Peter Yau.

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Presentation transcript:

The Influence of the Downstream State on ET: Danielle and Earl (1998) Ron McTaggart-Cowan John Gyakum, Peter Yau

Outline Case description Modelling Earl and Danielle Transition modes Importance of the downstream jet Discussion

Danielle reaches five intensity maxima – 55 ms -1 Earl develops in the Gulf of Mexico and only reaches Category 2 before landfall Danielle Earl Case Description

Both storms transition and reintensify rapidly between 0000 UTC 5 September and 0000 UTC 7 September Earl: water vapour image from 1200 UTC 6 September

Case Description Both storms transition and reintensify rapidly between 0000 UTC 5 September and 0000 UTC 7 September Danielle: infrared image from 1200 UTC 6 September

Modelling Danielle/Earl MC2 is used for all simulations Initialization: 0000 UTC 5 Sept 48 h simulations at 35 km horizontal grid spacing Fixed SST SLP, hPa thickness, 250 winds valid 0000 UTC 5 Sept 00h

Sea Level Pressure, hPa thickness and 250 hPa winds 00 h Valid 0000 UTC 5 Sept Modelling Danielle/Earl

Sea Level Pressure, hPa thickness and 250 hPa winds 12 h Valid 1200 UTC 5 Sept Modelling Danielle/Earl

Sea Level Pressure, hPa thickness and 250 hPa winds 24 h Valid 0000 UTC 6 Sept Modelling Danielle/Earl

Sea Level Pressure, hPa thickness and 250 hPa winds 36 h Valid 1200 UTC 6 Sept Modelling Danielle/Earl

Sea Level Pressure, hPa thickness and 250 hPa winds 48 h Valid 0000 UTC 7 Sept Modelling Danielle/Earl

Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU) potential temperatures and winds Modelling Danielle/Earl 00 h Valid 0000 UTC 5 Sept

Two distinctly different structures evolve on the DT 48 h Valid 0000 UTC 7 Sept Modelling Danielle/Earl

Upstream modifications had little impact on ET structure Does a feature of the downstream state control the mode of transition? Sensitivity tests: –Remove all downstream features –Simple North Atlantic jet Transition Modes

IDEAL test – no downstream perturbations Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU) potential temperatures and winds Transition Modes 00 h Valid 0000 UTC 5 Sept

SIMJET test – no downstream perturbations Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU) potential temperatures and winds Transition Modes 00 h Valid 0000 UTC 5 Sept

Convective stability of the system is also modified by ET mode Transition Modes Baroclinic modeTropical mode PV and θ E-W sections at 36 h control IDEAL SIMJET

The secondary circulation around the jet asymmetrically enhances advection around the cyclone Transition Modes

The simultaneous ET and reintensification events of Danielle and Earl display important structural differences The downstream jet plays the primary role in determining the mode of transition through enhancement of advection Discussion