Hazardous Weather Testbed / Storm Prediction Center 2011 Spring Experiment Chris Siewert Proving Ground Liaison OU-CIMMS / SPC

Goals of the Experiment Demonstrate products and capabilities available on GOES-R within an operational forecast/warning environment – Severe weather (forecast and warning) – QPF – CI Build connections with non-satellite research community – Radar (dual-pol, MRMS) – NWP – LMA Discover product, display and demonstration limitations / successes and suggest improvements Define product training and display requirements

2010 Spring Experiment Overview 4-week period (17 May – 18 June) during central plains peak severe weather season 20 Visiting Scientists and 15 NWS forecasters invited by the GOES-R Proving Ground 8 Proving Ground products demonstrated – Cloud and moisture imagery – Convective initiation (3 products) – Overshooting-top / Enhanced-V detection – Total lightning detection (2 products) – Severe hail probability Real-time forecast and warning exercises using operational decision support tools (N-AWIPS/AWIPS) Weather Event Simulator (WES) cases developed and presented for training purposes of experimental products

2011 Changes New EWP morning shift – Cooperate with new EFP CI desk – Drive discussion of selecting warning domain – Participate in forecasting/monitoring CI in early afternoon Participate in new 1pm daily briefing – EWP participants discuss previous day in detail – EFP participants provide forecast guidance – Simulates national center / WFO interaction New products – SATCAST (GOES-R proxy CI product) – Nearcast – Simulated band differences

Convective Initiation UWCI / Cloud-top Cooling Rate (Sieglaff et al., 2010) – Box-averaged 0-1 hour nowcast of convective initiation and 15-minute cloud-top cooling rates – GOES-E/W and nighttime capable SATCAST (Meckalski and Bedka, 2006) – Object-based 0-1 hour nowcast of yes/no convective initiation – Utilizes IR BT cooling rates and multi- spectral information – GOES-E and daytime only

Overshooting-top / Enhanced-V Based on GOES-13 IR BT spatial testing (see Bedka et al., 2010) – Provided by UW-CIMSS Detects overshooting-top and thermal couplet features in mature cloud tops – Provides detections and relative magnitudes – Operates day/night and can operate during rapid scan

Total Lightning Detection Pseudo-GLM – Data from ground-based total lightning detection networks Huntsville, AL; Washington, DC; Melbourne, FL; and Norman, OK – Raw sources sorted into flashes and interpolated to an 8km grid – Running 2-minute average Simulated lightning threat – Based on NSSL-WRF 0Z 4km data – Estimates total lightning from vertical ice content and flux within cloud objects (see McCaul et al., 2009)

Simulated Satellite Imagery Produced from the 0Z 4km NSSL-WRF – All 9 non-solar IR bands and visible band 2 available from UW-CIMSS/CIRA – Hourly output available for hr forecast periods – Ability to simply produce unique GOES-R band differences – Demonstration focused on: Visible 3 WV channels Standard window IR Band differencing (10-12 μm)

10-12 μm Channel Difference Bands currently not available on GOES μm channel is a ‘clean’ window – Brightness temperature very sensitive to surface temperature 12.3 μm channel is sensitive to column WV – Brightness temperature cools as WV increases Difference becomes more positive as low- and mid-level WV increases

Nearcast GOES sounder PW / theta-e fields advected using a Lagrangian model – 9-hour forecast Multi-layer PW difference / gradient – mb, mb and mb Level theta-e and multi- layer theta-e difference – 500 mb and 780 mb level – mb difference

Severe Hail Probability Based on satellite IR and RUC analysis fields – Provides probability of severe hail (>1” and >2”) within grid box out to 3 hours 25 x 25 km grid boxes – Hourly forecasts update with new satellite data – Provided by CIRA

Organizations Roles and Responsibilities NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed – “NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a facility jointly managed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the NWS Oklahoma City/Norman Weather Forecast Office (OUN) within the National Weather Center… The HWT is designed to accelerate the transition of promising new meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States.” (Steve Weiss, EFP Operations Plan) Experimental Forecast Program (SPC/HPC/NSSL) – “…predicting hazardous mesoscale weather events on time scales ranging from a few hours to a week in advance, and on spatial domains ranging from several counties to the CONUS.” (Steve Weiss, EFP Operations Plan) Experimental Warning Program (NSSL) – “…designed to test and evaluate new applications, techniques, and products to support Weather Forecast Office (WFO) severe convective weather warning operations.” (Greg Stumpf, EWP Operations Plan)

Organizations Roles and Responsibilities Products and training – UW-CIMSS Convective initiation Overshooting-tops / thermal couplet detection Simulated satellite imagery Nearcast – CIRA Simulated satellite imagery Severe hail probability – SPoRT / UAH Convective initiation NSSL-WRF Lightning threat – SPoRT / NSSL Pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper Personnel and support – NSSL Experimental Warning Program Experimental Forecast Program (CI) – SPC Experimental Forecast Program (Severe) – HPC Experimental Forecast Program (QPF)

Experiment Schedule Experimental Forecast Program – May 9 - June 10, 2011 – Monday-Friday 7:30am-4pm Experimental Warning Program – May 9-27, June 6-10 (no operations Memorial Day week) – Monday-Thursday 10am-9pm – Friday 10am-1pm

Day in the life of the Experiment Experimental Forecast Program 7:30am-8:15am – Subjective verification and discussion of previous day’s forecasts 8:15am-10:30am – Morning forecasts issued 10:30am-noon – Subjective/objective verification of previous day’s model performance Noon-1pm – Lunch 1pm-1:30pm – Joint EFP/EWP daily briefing 1:30pm-3:30pm – Update forecasts 3:30pm-4pm – Daily briefing and discussion of the day’s forecasts

Day in the Life of the Experiment Experimental Warning Program Monday – 10am-2pm New participant orientation Project training seminars – 2pm-6pm WES training / informal IOP Tues-Thurs – 10am-noon Issue initial AFD – Noon-1pm Lunch – 1pm-1:30pm EFP/EWP joint briefing Tues-Thurs – 1:30pm-2:30pm EWP daily briefing – 2:30pm-4pm CI monitoring, EFP CI desk collaboration and final AFD issued – 4pm-9pm Warning IOP or training/archive feedback Friday – 10am-12pm Weekly debrief – 12pm-1pm Optional brown bag lunch seminars

Capturing Feedback Real-time blogging – During forecast/warning exercises – Participants are also encouraged to blog following forecast/warning exercises Web-based surveys – Immediately following forecast/warning operations Daily post-mortem discussions – Between visiting scientists and forecasters

Thanks for your attention!