Travis Smith (OU/CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center

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Presentation transcript:

Multi-Radar / Multi-Sensor Applications for Severe Weather Warning Operations Travis Smith (OU/CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma

MRMS-Severe MRMS-Severe MRMS-Aviation MRMS-Hydro Flash Flood QPE Radars in network supplement each other: Overlapping coverage Fills in gaps from cones-of-silence and terrain blockage Increased sampling frequency Seamless, consistent Vertically Integrated Liquid VIL Time (UTC) Single-radar cross-section NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

MRMS-Severe 2001 – present: WDSS-II available at select NWSFOs RECOMMENDATION: These capabilities should be prioritized for inclusion in future AWIPS and future Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG) builds. 2001 – present: WDSS-II available at select NWSFOs Visiting NSSL scientists 2002-2004 2005 – present: CONUS real-time WDSS- II system (w/ SPC) 2006 – present: Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment 2008 – present: Hazardous Weather Testbed Focus in 2009/10/13/14 AWIPS2 integration 2008 – present: licensing to private sector e.g. 50% of US TV market Targeted high resolution phone calls by OU students 100,000 since 2006 NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

Examples: Multi-sensor data fields Near-surface reflectivity Total Lightning Density Show physical relationships between data fields from multiple sensors Storm tracks and trends can be generated at any spatial scale, for any data fields Reflectivity @ -20 C (~6.5 km AGL) Max Expected Size of Hail NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

Initial Operating Capability at NCEP 2-hour Rotation Track (max Azimuthal Shear Rotation Tracks Maximum Estimated Size of Hail (MESH) and MESH Swath Vertically Integrated Ice/Liquid (VII & VIL) Thickness of Reflectivity Core Echo Top - 18, 30, 50, 60 dBZ Isothermal Reflectivity Composite Reflectivity Reflectivity At Lowest Altitude (RALA) CG Lightning Density Lightning Probability 2-hour MESH Swath Widely used in NWSFOs since 2002.

MRMS-Severe Best Practices Experiment Collaboration w/ NWS Warning Decision Training Branch Forecasters issued warnings with and without MRMS data in controlled setting Results: Improved warning polygon alignment and precision Faster storm diagnosis Improved lead time to first severe report NWS Warnings – polygon alignment HWT Warnings EWP Warnings – polygon alignment NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

What’s Next? Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS) 15+ years of storm statistics FACETs / Probabilistic Hazard Information Data Mining Improvements: Rotation Tracks Lightning Jump Tornado Debris Signature Hail size estimates Number of Hail Days in 2007 MRMS & MYRORSS are foundational to the effort to improve NWS warning services NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

What’s Next? Extensive collaboration with the NWS and private sector since 2001. Additional user base: Emergency management – FEMA, Red Cross Academia Agriculture Ornithology (bird migration) Insurance / Reinsurance NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015