Aoc Student support conference Politics, funding and student support 23 October 2014 Julian Gravatt, Assistant Chief Executive,

Politics – where we are now Uncertainty 8 months before the 2015 general election Coalition governing parties disagree on several issues Labour better able to convert votes into seats Result currently difficult to call The Scotland vote is prompting discussions on the constitution Schools, apprenticeships and university fees all big political issues AoC manifesto designed to secure helpful but feasible proposals

Planning the next 12 months Autumn 2014 Party conferences, 21 September to 8 October 2014 EFA Funding Letter, 16 October 2014 (hopefully) AoC annual conference, 18 to 20 November 2014 Autumn statement, 3 December 2014 Skills Funding Statement, December 2014 (hopefully) Spring & Summer 2015 Budget, mid March allocations, by end of March 2015 Easter, 7 April 2015 General election, 7 May 2015 Coalition negotiations, May 2015 Spending review, June to October 2015 (hopefully)

Politics and funding Before the election General avoidance of boat-rocking Decisions on funding made before the election Autumn statement may add to, subtract from or devolve budgets After the election Post-election 2015 spending review (budgets from onwards) Demography: More children now + more old people = post-16 squeeze Cross-party agreement: closing deficit, cutting taxes & protecting NHS Spending likely to dip around 2018

Government plans Various budgets get bigger Pensions, interest, NHS etc Deficit reduction via RDEL cuts Unprotected departments 9.1% of GDP ( ) 7.8% of GDP ( ) 5.4% of GDP ( ) NATO 2% target for defence Spending cuts c30-40% to come Loans & fees a safe haven? The bigger spending picture x

The DFE budget after 2015 DFE’s cash crunch: too many schools, pupils & promises 80% of school income spent on staff; on-costs up 5% in UTCs, free schools & studio schools enrol 1% of 16-18s 2015 to 2020: pupils +10%, population -8% Pressure for devolution (councils, combined authorities or LEPs?) Core funding system continues for now

BIS budget BIS budget in £14 bil Student Loans £13 bil DEL HEFCE + Grants + Science £8 bil 19+ FE/Skills budget £3.5 bil Various contradictory options are in play 1: Devolve skills & DWP budgets to local govt or LEPs 2: Employer-routed funding for apprenticeships3 3: Expansion of FE loans to 19 year olds & Level 2 4: New earn-or-train options for under 21s on benefit 5: New SFA funding approach borrowed from EFA?

What does this mean for EFA Funding based on student numbers, funding factors & a £4,000 rate bursary and free meals likely to roll forward ILR data (R04 return) very important in setting free meal allocation SFA Funding based on apprenticeships and other adult skills Colleges have two funding pots which aren’t mixed 19+ financial support funds likely to roll forward (less cuts) 24+ loans are the growth area in but this may slow

Student support Support within the education system at different ages Universal infant free school meals In-course support via pupil premium and for those with high needs Transport support but under pressure post-16 Modest sums for bursaries, free meals and care to learn Modest sums for those in 19+ education Maintenance grants and loans for full-time higher education Support within the welfare system at different ages Child benefit plus income-related benefits for parents Discussion about withdrawing benefits for under 21s (earn or train) Treasury’s welfare cap will cause pressure on working-age benefits Long delayed plan to merge benefits into universal credit

Some concluding thoughts Thinking about your role Public spending trends will force changes in colleges Budgets pressure => review of management, admin & support roles Students cannot learn or train if they can’t afford to do so Vital to manage student support budgets carefully Colleges have a clear role helping students off benefits into work Data – how do you prove you’re making a difference? Education and skills matter Quality counts Every crisis is an opportunity Reminders More information on funding and finance issues here