Time Series Analysis and Index Numbers Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing.

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Presentation transcript:

Time Series Analysis and Index Numbers Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Times Series Time series represents a variable observed across time. Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Components of a Time Series Trend (TR) Seasonal variation (S) Cyclical variation (C) Irregular activity (I) Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Trend Trend is a steady increase or decrease in the time series. This long-term growth or decay pattern can take a variety of shapes. If the rate of change in Y from one time period to the next is relatively constant, the trend is a linear trend. Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Trend Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing Figure 16.2

Seasonality Seasonal variation refers to periodic increases or decreases that occur within a calendar year in a time series. The key is that these movements in the time series follow the same pattern each year. Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Seasonal Variation Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing Figure 16.5

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Deseasonalizing Data Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Trend and Seasonal Variation Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing Figure 16.6

Cyclical Variation Cyclical variation describes a gradual cyclical movement about the trend; it is generally attributable to business and economic conditions. The length of the cycle is the period of that cycle and is measured from one peak to the next. Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Cyclical Variation Figure 16.7 Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Irregular Activity Irregular activity consists of what is “left over” after accounting for the effect of any trend, seasonality, or cyclical activity. Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Additive Structure Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Multiplicative Structure Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Linear Trend Figure 16.9 Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Cyclical Activity without Seasonality Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Cyclical Activity Figure Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Seasonal Variation Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Four Step Procedure for Decomposition Determine the seasonal index deseasonalized the data Determine the trend component Determine the cyclical component. Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Price Indexes Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Price Indexes Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing

Prices for Items is 1990 and 1998 Introduction to Business Statistics, 5e Kvanli/Guynes/Pavur (c)2000 South-Western College Publishing