Natural Hazards What are the greatest risks? –Are these risks increasing? What are the costs associated with environmental hazards? –Are the relative costs the same around the world? –What controls these costs? How do we define risk?

So… What are common hazards Let’s list the hazards people think of when of when they think of natural hazards Which of these are the most dangerous in the U.S.? Which are the most expensive (in the U.S.)?

Data for U.S. ??? HazardAnnual Number of Deaths per Year Tornadoes & Windstorms218 Lightning120 Flooding86 Tropical Cyclones55 Earthquakes50+ ? Mass Wasting25 Volcano<1 Coastal Erosion0 Drought0 Frost & Freezing0 ? Data is a 150 year average from 19 th and 20 th centuries (Keller, 1999).

Number of Hazard Events World Wide Type of Hazard No of Events Tornadoes (U.S. only) Flood Tropical Cyclone Tsunami Earthquake Wind (other than tornado) Drought Landslide Wild fire Extreme temperature Temperate winter storm Volcano Tornadoes (non-US) Famine Storm surge For 20 th century data from WHO (2002), U.S. tornado data are only for for only F2-F5 size events

Numbers of Deaths Associated with Natural Disasters Worldwide Type of Hazard Deaths InjuriesHomelessLargest Event Death Toll Floods6,851,7401,033,572123,009,662China ,700,000 Earthquakes1,816,1191,147,6768,953,296Tangshan, China ,000 Tropical cyclones1,147,877906,31134,272,470Bangladesh ,000 Volcanoes96,77011,154197,790Martinique ,000 Mass Wasting60,5018,0713,759,329Soviet Union ,000 Extra-tropical storms36, ,606,891N. Europe ,000 Heat waves14,7321,3640India ,541 Tsunamis10,754789Not countedSanriku, Japan ,000 Cold waves6, ,340India Tornadoes7,91727,887575,511Bangladesh Wild Fires2,5031,658140,776Oklahoma, U.S ,000 Data for 20 th century, based on WHO (2002) data.

Earthquake Flood Tropical storm Wind Storm Wild Fire Drought Cold wave Heat wave Total Worldwide Hazard Ranking by Cost Type Cost $248,624,900,000 $206,639,800,000 $80,077,700,000 $43,890,000,000 $20,212,800,000 $16,800,000,000 $9,555,000,000 $5,450,000,000 $631,250,200,000 Cost of natural hazards, summarized by type for top 100 most costly events of 20 th century (WHO, 2002).

F5 Tornado that hit Greensburg Kansas, May 4, Doppler radar gave a 20-minute warning - Tornado was 1.5 miles across at its base - 95% of the town was leveled

Lightening strikes 100 times/second worldwide, with the greatest number of hits in central Africa. In the U.S. the greatest number of lightening strikes occur in Florida. The Empire State building is hit on average 100 times/year.

Sean & Michael McQuilken, 1975

Define some terms What are precursor events? What is forecasting? How do warnings work? What is risk? –What is acceptable risk? What is the purpose of insurance?