CAIJING ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2009 Forecasts and Strategies Beijing December 12, 2008.

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CAIJING ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2009 Forecasts and Strategies Beijing December 12, 2008

Session on “Macroeconomic Trends of the World and China” Presentation by Vivek Arora 1/ IMF Senior Resident Representative Beijing 1/ These are the views of the author and not those of the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.

Points for discussion World economic outlook for 2009 Major uncertainties Regional economies and global impacts China’s economic outlook Central government economic policy: tradeoffs and trends Inflation or deflation?

World economy slowing sharply

Particularly advanced countries GDP growth (in percent) (WEO Update - November) World Advanced economies United States Euro area Japan Emerging and developing economies6.65.1

Global financial crisis: origins and policy responses Outline of crisis: monetary policy and easy regulation spurred risk taking and leverage, supervision/regulation failed to keep pace with financial innovation. Responses: focus on financial sector (liquidity; recapitalization; distressed assets) and on economic stimulus.

Uncertainty in outlook: confidence weak…

…and other questions financial restructuring effective? risk of negative feedback loops {financial  real  financial} labor-, housing-, and asset markets

Regional economies Asia affected through several channels (exports, capital flows, equity prices, confidence, loan quality) Growth slowing down: Emerging Asia 9.5% (2007)  7.7% (2008)  6.5% (2009) Risks on downside. Global economy; tighter financial conditions; robustness of domestic demand.

China’s situation and outlook Economy slowing in 2008, so far mainly due to property (and spillovers) Will slow further in 2009 Government taking action to keep growth above 8% fiscal stimulus (RMB 4 trillion; 14% of 2008 GDP) monetary easing (credit, interest rates, RRR) support for property sector export tax rebates social service reforms (health, education, soc.sec.)

China: Tradeoffs and risks Key medium-term goals still important! Re-balancing toward higher consumption). Consumption-based stimulus better than investment-based; plus other reforms to boost consumption Domestic risk: overcapacity (investment  overcapacity  activity↓, prices ↓, NPLs ↑) External risks: global growth, protectionism