IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Recent NWP results from IMPROVE Greg Thompson, Roy Rasmussen, Bill Hall, Kyoko Ikeda (NCAR-RAL), Axel Seifert (Germany), Istvan Geresdi (Pecs, Hungary), Efforts to improve the bulk microphysical parameterization in MM5, RUC, and WRF models (plus excursions into PBL parameterizations)

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 List of MM5 case studies used as a baseline 14 Feb 1990 (WISP) shallow, post-frontal, upslope cloud w/widespread FZDZ. 30 Jan 1998 (NASA-SLDRP) shallow stratoCu, primarily CLW w/slight FZDZ. 04 Feb 1998 (NASA-SLDRP) deep and dynamic snowstorm w/classic FZRA. 01 Feb 2001 (IMPROVE-1) deep PacNW wide cold-frontal rainband system. 28 Nov 2001 (IMPROVE-2) deep PacNW frontal system plus orographics. 13 Dec 2001 (IMPROVE-2) deep PacNW frontal system plus orographics. Thompson, G. and B. C. Bernstein, 2005: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., in preparation.

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 IMPROVE-1 case: 1-2 Feb 2001 major simulation flaw in timing of the front: MM5 is nearly 3 hours too fast with landfall (0z)

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July Feb 2001 moderate simulation flaw in stength of LLJ: MM5 is 5-10 m s -1 too weak around mb

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Thermodynamics: 1-2 Feb 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Microphysics: 1-2 Feb 2001 KHQM Cloud ice (purple) Snow (blue) Rain (green) Graupel (red) Cloud water (green) g/kg melting Cloud water (shaded) sample microphysical variables plot

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 IMPROVE-2 case: Dec 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Thermodynamics: Dec 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July z 13 Dec 12z 14 Dec 13z 14z 15z 16z 17z 18z 19z 20z 21z 22z 23z 00z 01z 02z 03z 04z 05z 06z 07z 08z 09z 10z 11z Potential corruption by snow Santiam Pass bad data after 1500 local time PARSL site (Sisters, OR) KOTH - North Bend KEUG - Eugene KSLE - Salem KCVO - Corvallis Falls Creek Jump-off Joe Corbett and S.P. minimum 60 mm Dec 2001: Observed precipitation PARSL site (Sisters, OR) KSLE - Salem

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Grid 3/4 (4/1.3 km spacing) precip accum

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Microphysics: Dec 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Pre, inter, post-frontal

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop Istvan Geresdi bin microphys Bill Hall R-T; 2-moment snow; S&B autoconv. Jean-Pierre Chaboureau 2-moment MesoNH Axel Seifert 2-moment WRF Winfried Straub 2-moment Seifert in KAMM2 WMO International Cloud Modeling Workshop Every 4 years July 2004 in Hamburg, Germany “Case #3” Dec 2001 IMPROVE-2 case study All modelers use provided datasets Intercompare model results Variety of bulk micro param and one bin model Effect of changing autoconversion only (6-hr precip)

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005 Summary and future work 2D simulations bulk scheme tuned to Geresdi’s bin/explicit model comparisons to other bulk models (Seifert, Hall, …) 3D case studies numerous cases from variety of field projects different precip formation mechanisms different geographic regions (continental/maritime) Future work verification data especially other IMPROVE cases other bulk species (aggregates) or 2-moments? WRF model simulations AIRS-2 cases other field projects?

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005empty