Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea Weather Research and Forecasting WRF Mesoscale Meteorology Model Mid-Term Project Meeting Funded by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) BOEMRE Project Manager Warren Horowitz Lead Conducting Organization Lead Conducting Organization International Arctic Research Center (UAF)

BOEMRE Need for WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model Development BOEMRE Need for WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model Development There are fundamental unknowns in our understanding of circulation and the forcing mechanism associated with the Beaufort and Chukchi shelf’s dynamics and ability to predict pollutant transport and dispersal. (Modified from MMS Beaufort Sea Physical Oceanography Workshop)

Study Objective Study Objective To achieve more accurate along shore and cross shelf wind gradients for wind velocities, direction, temperature, and other significant surface environmental variables. To achieve more accurate along shore and cross shelf wind gradients for wind velocities, direction, temperature, and other significant surface environmental variables.

Study Objective To improve our understanding of the mesoscale meteorology of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas to include a better understanding of the sea breeze and orographic impacts with the ultimate goal to ensure a more accurate simulation of ocean circulation models, oil spill trajectories, and future improvements of our Oil Spill Resource Assessments (OSRA) for the Alaska OCS.

Study Progress WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model for the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. (2009 WRF model run) WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model for the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. (2009 WRF model run) Comprehensive surface observational database encompassing the WRF model domain. (QA/QC, summary statistics, climate) (draft completed) Comprehensive surface observational database encompassing the WRF model domain. (QA/QC, summary statistics, climate) (draft completed) Collection of field data from offshore meteorological buoys. (Completed 2009) Collection of field data from offshore meteorological buoys. (Completed 2009) Compare model, surf observations, and collected buoy data (Ongoing) Compare model, surf observations, and collected buoy data (Ongoing)

Study Progress (Cont.) Hindcast WRF Mesoscale Model/ Climatology Define seasonal variability and long term trends by conducting a long-term hindcast simulation with the optimized data-modeling system (2009, this meeting) Define seasonal variability and long term trends by conducting a long-term hindcast simulation with the optimized data-modeling system (2009, this meeting) Document the high-resolution climatological features of the Beaufort/Chukchi seas surface winds, including an analysis of the inter-annual variability and long-term change, as well as the physical processes and mechanisms for shaping the Beaufort/Chukchi seas wind field climatology ( ). (2009, this meeting) Document the high-resolution climatological features of the Beaufort/Chukchi seas surface winds, including an analysis of the inter-annual variability and long-term change, as well as the physical processes and mechanisms for shaping the Beaufort/Chukchi seas wind field climatology ( ). (2009, this meeting)

Interim and Final Products from this Study Five Year WRF Production Simulation (Estimated spring 2011) Five Year WRF Production Simulation (Estimated spring 2011) Final Observational Database (Estimated spring 2011) Final Observational Database (Estimated spring 2011) Final 30 Year WRF Model Simulation (Estimated Fall/Winter 2011 Final 30 Year WRF Model Simulation (Estimated Fall/Winter 2011 Final Climate Analysis from WRF 30 Year Model Run (2012) Final Climate Analysis from WRF 30 Year Model Run (2012) Final Report and Journal Article (2012) Final Report and Journal Article (2012)

Deployment of the BOEMRE Surface Meteorological Buoy in the Beaufort Sea August 5- September 14, 2009

Schematic of surface met buoy