Jobs and Unemployment

When you have completed your study of this chapter, you will be able to C H A P T E R C H E C K L I S T Define the unemployment rate and other labor market indicators. 1 Describe the trends and fluctuations in the indicators of labor market performance in the United States. Describe the sources and types of unemployment, define full employment, and explain the link between unemployment and real GDP. 2 3

LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Two Sources of Employment Data in the US 1. Current Employment Statistics (establishment survey) 2. Current Population Survey (household survey)

LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Current Employment Statistics A survey of payroll records that covers over 300,000 businesses on a monthly basis and provides detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls for the Nation. Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time - including temporary and intermittent employees – data exclude proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Government employment covers only civilian workers.

LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Current Employment Statistics National estimates of average weekly hours and average hourly earnings are made for the private sector, with detail for about 850 industries as well as for overtime hours in manufacturing. The CES survey does not collect occupational information. Occupational employment information is collected as part of the Current Population Survey

LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Current Population Survey Every month, the U.S. Census Bureau surveys about 60,000 households to establish the sex, age, and job market status of each member of the household. The sample is selected to reflect the entire civilian non- institutional population. Based on responses to a series of questions on work and job search activities, each person 16 years and over in a sample household is classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Current Population Survey Working-age population Total number of people aged 16 years and over who are not in a jail, hospital, or some other form of institutional care. The working-age population is divided into those in the labor force and those not in the labor force. Labor force: The number of people employed plus the number unemployed.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Population Survey Criteria The survey counts as employed all persons who, during the week before the survey: 1. Worked at least 1 hour in a paid job or 15 hours unpaid in family business. 2. Were did not work but who had jobs from which they were temporarily absent.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS The survey counts as unemployed all persons who, during the week before the survey: 1. Had no employment 2. Were available for work, and either: 1. Had made efforts to find employment during the previous four weeks, or 2. Were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

Differences in employment estimates: --The household survey includes agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey. --The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among the employed. The establishment survey does not. --The household survey is limited to workers 16 years of age and older. The establishment survey is not limited by age. --The household survey has no duplication of individuals, because individuals are counted only once, even if they hold more than one job. In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one job and thus appearing on more than one payroll would be counted separately for each appearance.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

Figure 21.1 shows population labor force categories. The figure shows the data for June 2002.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Two Main Labor Market Indicators The unemployment rate The labor force participation rate Unemployment rate The percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed. Unemployment rate = Number of people unemployed x 100 Labor force

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

Labor force participation rate The percentage of the working-age population who are members of the labor force. Labor force participation rate = Working-age population x 100% Labor force

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS  Unemployment Figure 21.2 shows the U.S. unemployment rate: 1962–2002 The average unemployment rate between 1962 and 2002 was 5.9 percent.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS  The Participation Rate The participation rate increased from 59 percent during the 1960s to 67 percent during the 1990s. Between 1962 and 2002, the participation rate for women increased from 38 percent to 60 percent. Between 1962 and 2002, the participation rate for men decreased from 82 percent to 74 percent.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS Figure 21.3 shows the changing face of the labor market. The labor force participation rate of women has increased.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS The labor force participation rate of men has decreased. The average participation rate of both sexes has increased.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

 Discouraged Workers Discouraged workers People available to work but have not made efforts to find a job within the previous 4 weeks. Discouraged workers are NOT a part of the labor force.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Part-Time Workers Full-time workers People who work 35 hours per week. Part-time workers People who work less than 35 hours per week. Involuntary part-time workers People working 1 to 34 hours per week and are seeking full-time work.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS  Aggregate Hours The total number of hours worked by all the people employed during a year. In June 2002, 135 million people worked an average of 34.7 hours per week. In the year there are 50 workweeks, so aggregate hours in 2002 were billion.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS  Aggregate and Average Hours Between 1960 and 2000, the number of people employed doubled (up 105 percent) but aggregate hours increased by only 84 percent. The reason: average hours per worker decreased.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS Figure 21.5(a) shows aggregate hours: 1962–2002 Between 1962 and 2002, aggregate hours increased by an average of 1.5 percent a year.

21.1 LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS  Part-Time Workers Part-time work is attractive to workers because they: Balance family with work Part-time work is attractive to employers because: Benefits are not paid to part-time workers Less government regulation of part-time workers

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS Figure 21.4 shows part- time workers from 1972 to Part-time workers up from 16 percent of labor force in 1972 to 17 percent in 2002.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS The figure also shows involuntary part-time workers. Involuntary part-time work peaked during the 1982 recession.

21.2 LABOR TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS Figure 21.5(b) shows average weekly hours from 1962 to 2002.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  Types of Unemployment Frictional unemployment The unemployment that arises from normal labor turnover—from people entering and leaving the labor force and from the ongoing creation and destruction of jobs. Structural unemployment The unemployment that arises when changes in technology or international competition change the skills needed to perform jobs or change the locations of jobs.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Seasonal unemployment The unemployment that arises because of seasonal weather patterns. Cyclical unemployment The fluctuating unemployment over the business cycle that increases during a recession and decreases during an expansion.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  Sources of Unemployment People who become unemployed are: Job losers—people who are laid off from their jobs Job leavers—people who voluntarily quit their jobs Entrants and reentrants—people who have just left school or who are now looking for a job after a period out of the labor force.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Figure 21.6 shows unemployment by reasons. Job losers are the biggest group, and their number fluctuates most.

RECENT UNEMPLOYMENT

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  How Unemployment Ends People who end a period of unemployment are either: Hires and recalls—people who have been hired in a new job or recalled after a temporary layoff. Withdrawals—people who have stopped looking for jobs.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Figure 21.6 summarizes the labor market flows.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Job losers and job leavers become unemployed or leave the labor force.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Entrants and reentrants become unemployed or get jobs.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment ends when a person is hired or recalled….

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT … or when a person withdraws from the labor force.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  Duration and Demographics of Unemployment The average duration of unemployment varies over the business cycle. Figure 21.8(a) compares the duration of unemployment in 2000 with 1983

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  Duration and Demographics of Unemployment The lower the average unemployment rate, the shorter is the average duration of unemployment. The average unemployment rate was less in 2000 than in 1983.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT Figure 21.8(b) shows unemployment demographics. Black unemployment is more than twice that of white. Teenage unemployment is three times that of workers aged 20 and over.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  Full Employment Full employment When there is no cyclical unemployment or, equivalently, when all the unemployment is frictional or structural. Natural unemployment rate The unemployment rate at full employment.

21.3 UNEMPLOYMENT  Unemployment and Real GDP Because the unemployment rate fluctuates around the natural rate, real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP. Potential GDP The level of real GDP that the economy would produce if it were at full employment. When the unemployment rate is above the natural rate, real GDP is below potential GDP. When the unemployment rate is below the natural rate, real GDP is above potential GDP.

Figure 21.9(a)shows the relationship between unemployment and real GDP. As the unemployment rate fluctuates around the natural rate unemployment (part a), real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP (part b) UNEMPLOYMENT

UNEMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

GDP OVER TIME