THE POST COLD WAR-ERA NAFTA and the Gospel of Free Trade

REQUIRED READING Smith, Talons, ch. 7 Course Reader #3, Blecker and Esquivel, “NAFTA, Trade, and Development”

PAPER ASSIGNMENT Topic: Any subject related to U.S.-Latin American relations (whether or not covered in class)—proposed by student and approved by TA Examples: Sports (e.g. baseball), film (depictions of Latina women), music (lyrics, popularity of stars, etc.), advertising (Corona beer) In-class examples: Content of Latin American nationalism, impacts of drug war (e.g., Plan Colombia), reactions to 9/11, Bush relationship with Latin leaders, Hugo Chávez phenomenon, evaluations of NAFTA Length: 8-12 double-spaced pages (plus notes or bibliography) Due: Monday, March 1

FORMAT FOR PAPER Introduce topic (and its importance) Present a central question Describe sources and methods (how will you answer your question?) Analyze information and data Conclusion: –Respond to your central question(s) –Suggest avenues for further research

AFTER THE COLD WAR: THE GLOBAL ARENA 1.Collapse of the Soviet Union 2.U.S. military primacy: the “unipolar moment” 3.Economic multipolarity: Europe, Japan, others? 4.Transnationalization and non-state actors 5.A “third wave” of democratization?

DIMENSIONS OF UNCERTAINTY Distributions of power: the “layer cake” model Absence of “rules of the game” Hesitancy in the United States

ON “GLOBALIZATION” Factors: –End of Cold War=reduction of political barriers –Communication technologies –Transnational enterprises: production chains and consumer markets –Movement of people and goods, legal and illegal Features: –Inexorability, inevitability –Politics the result of economics –Inclusion vs. exclusion? –Claim: no ideology

THE 1990s: GEO-ECONOMICS AND “INTERMESTIC” ISSUES Ideological consensus (or “end of history”?) Implausibility of revolution Fragmentation of “Third World” The rise of “intermestic” issues: –Free trade –Drugs and drug “wars” –Immigration

THE GOSPEL OF FREE TRADE The Lost Decade (1980s) and Its Legacies Dynamics of the debt crisis The Washington Consensus: The role of the state Liberalization of trade Privatization, the private sector, and foreign investment

North American Free Trade (NAFTA)? Why? Why Then? Global Scenario: Economic multipolarity (Japan, EU) Geopolitical uncertainty Emphasis on “geo-economics” U.S. Perspectives: Supplement to FTA with Canada Support for neoliberal reforms in Mexico Growing Mexican-American population within U.S. Mexican Perspectives: Exhaustion of alternatives Need to stimulate growth Perpetuation of Salinista policies

NAFTA: What Is It? A “free trade” area: Not a customs union Nor a common market Characteristics: Uneven levels of development Cultural and political variation Hub-and-spoke arrangements (with U.S. at center) Absence of supranational authority (preservation of sovereignty)

Assessing Results: The Problem of Cause- and-Effect NAFTA in comparison with: Initial expectations (and political rhetoric) Liberalization (mid-1980s) Global and/or U.S. economic conditions Long-term economic and social trends Short-term shocks (e.g., Mexican peso crisis of )

Mexican Exports, (billions USD $$) 1985 = 27 bn, 1994 = 61 bn, 2205 = 214 bn

Expansion of Trade, (millions USD $$)

U.S. Trade with Mexico and Latin America, (millions USD $$)

U.S. Imports: Key Trading Partners, (millions USD $$)

Economic Performance: Expansion of Trade General effects: More efficiency (in production and consumption) Greater market size (thus higher returns) Tougher competition Questions: 1.Who takes part in the trade? (55 % large firms, 40% maquiladoras, > 5% small firms (~ 2.1 million firms) 2.What about trade diversion?

Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico,

GDP Growth in Mexico ~ 6.5% % Note: Growth does not necessarily reduce poverty, and often increases inequality.

Unforeseen Shocks: Mexican peso crisis of September 11, 2001 Current Challenges: Expansion of the development gap Infrastructure (including roads) Migration Energy Macroeconomic policy (thus “dollarization”?) Security problems

Key Points of Disputation: Environmental protection Labor rights Overall development strategy Dependence on United States Consolidation of U.S. hegemony

The Public Assertion: Free Trade = Democracy The Silent Bargain: International Dimensions Political stability and social peace Access to petroleum Leverage vis-à-vis economic rivals Compliance on foreign policy POLITICAL EFFECTS

Political Consequences (1)

Political Consequences (2)

Now What? Routes toward Hemispheric Integration 1.Expansion of NAFTA (through new memberships) 2.FTAA negotiating process 3.Bilaterals and minilaterals: U.S.-Chile U.S.-Central America U.S.-Peru U.S.-Colombia (?)