Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter 2009-10 Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010

Winter in the UK DJF averages Reading: T max, T min DJF 0910 Temperature Mean 1.6°C 2.1°C below average Precipitation (%) Total 249mm 75% of average Mike Stroud

European anomalies - DJF NOAA Climate Prediction Center TemperaturePrecipitation (% normal)

Surface air temperature December 2009January 2010February 2010 DJF average Persistence Warm Arctic + sub-tropics NOAA ESRL

Westerly winds – DJF climatology U 250hPaU 850hPa NOAA ESRL

U 250hPaU 850hPa NOAA ESRL Westerly winds – DJF 2009/10

U 250hPaU 850hPa NOAA ESRL Westerly winds – DJF 2009/10 anomalies

Percentage of days with significant anomaly of same sign (>15m) Z500 – persistence…. NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Persistence (%) December 2009January 2010February 2010 Monthly Mean (dm)

 First month for which 60% anomaly correlation reached 10 days for Europe and northern hemisphere …and February forecast skill

Arctic Oscillation (AO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Z500 P MSL P MSL anomaly NCEP reanalysis DJF 2009/10 Z500 anomaly

NAO and AO time-series NOAA CPC DJF average Arctic Oscillation (AO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Z500 P MSL

El Niño NOAA ESRL SST anomaly DJF 09/10 OLR anomaly DJF 09/10 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

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