Surface parameters forecast in Vancouver and Whistler area - Verification of MC2v498 parallel runs Yan Shen University of British Columbia.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Advertisements

Comparing GEM Regional, GEM-LAM 2.5 and RUC Model Simulations of Mesoscale Features over Southern Ontario 2009 CMOS Congress 31 May – 4 June, Halifax,

Seasonal & Diurnal Temp Variations ATS351 Lecture 3.

Computer Weather Forecasts for Wind Energy Plants Khanh T. Tran AMI Environmental 206 Black Eagle Ave, Henderson, NV 89015(702) http://

12.4 Notes Weather Analysis

5/18/2015 Prediction of the 10 July 2004 Beijing Flood with a High- Resolution NWP model Ying-Hwa Kuo 1 and Yingchun Wang 2 1. National Center for Atmospheric.

Recent performance statistics for AMPS real-time forecasts Kevin W. Manning – National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Earth System Laboratory Mesoscale.

Nesting. Eta Model Hybrid and Eta Coordinates ground MSL ground Pressure domain Sigma domain  = 0  = 1  = 1 Ptop  = 0.

Real-time WRF EnKF 36km outer domain/4km nested domain 36km outer domain/4km nested domain D1 (36km) D2 (4km)

Brian Ancell, Cliff Mass, Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington

1 Modelled Meteorology - Applicability to Well-test Flaring Assessments Environment and Energy Division Alex Schutte Science & Community Environmental.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Weather Model Background ● The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model had been developed by various research and governmental agencies became the.

Diurnal circulations in Southern California Mimi Hughes and Alex Hall.

Consortium Meeting June 3, Thanks Mike! Hit Rates.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 22 March 2011.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

“1995 Sunrise Fire – Long Island” Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Explore Model Performance on Northeast U.S. Fire Weather Days Michael Erickson and.

Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble

TOURISM ALEX VANAGAS.

Sun = Energy driving weatherSun = Energy driving weather Equator = warm; Poles = cold  why?Equator = warm; Poles = cold  why? Daytime: air over land.

The Sensitivity of a Real-Time Four- Dimensional Data Assimilation Procedure to Weather Research and Forecast Model Simulations: A Case Study Hsiao-ming.

Verification of a Blowing Snow Model and Applications for Blizzard Forecasting Jeff Makowski, Thomas Grafenauer, Dave Kellenbenz, Greg Gust National Weather.

The National Environmental Agency of Georgia L. Megrelidze, N. Kutaladze, Kh. Kokosadze NWP Local Area Models’ Failure in Simulation of Eastern Invasion.

Laurence Wilson Associate Scientist Emeritus Environment Canada Monica Bailey, Marcel Vallee and Ivan Heckmann Verification of forecasts from the 2010.

A Preliminary Evaluation of Heavy Snow Conceptual Models for East Vancouver Island (EVI) Rodger WU and Brad Snyder Pacific Storm Prediction Centre, EC,

Russ Bullock 11 th Annual CMAS Conference October 17, 2012 Development of Methodology to Downscale Global Climate Fields to 12km Resolution.

By: Kyle DeBenetti. Table of Contents > Pacific Maritime Characteristics > Victoria’s Climagraph > Vancouver’s Climagraph > Pacific Cordilleran Characteristics.

CCAM Numerical Weather Prediction Dr Marcus Thatcher Research Scientist December 2007.

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Operational Mesoscale Model History Early: LFM, NGM (history) Eta (mainly history) MM5: Still used by some, but.

AMB Verification and Quality Control monitoring Efforts involving RAOB, Profiler, Mesonets, Aircraft Bill Moninger, Xue Wei, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison.

P1.85 DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATED GOES PRODUCTS FOR GFS AND NAM Hui-Ya Chuang and Brad Ferrier Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Washington DC Introduction.

Sensitivity Analysis of Mesoscale Forecasts from Large Ensembles of Randomly and Non-Randomly Perturbed Model Runs William Martin November 10, 2005.

Verification of Global Ensemble Forecasts Fanglin Yang Yuejian Zhu, Glenn White, John Derber Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental.

An air quality information system for cities with complex terrain based on high resolution NWP Viel Ødegaard, r&d department.

Other Factors: Bias of Forecasting Models “The GFS (Global Forecast Index) is a U.S. based model that can extend out 384 hours or to about Christmas Eve.

Comparing GEM 15 km, GEM-LAM 2.5 km and RUC 13 km Model Simulations of Mesoscale Features over Southern Ontario 2010 Great Lakes Op Met Workshop Toronto,

Advanced interpretation and verification of very high resolution models National Meteorological Administration Rodica Dumitrache, Aurelia LUPASCU,

Weather & Water Investigation 8

DATA ASSIMILATION M. Derkova, M. Bellus, M. Nestiak.

Weather Forecasting & Maps -Meteorologists make forecasts based on models that are produced by supercomputers which perform a large amount of calculations.

Applications of Models-3 in Coastal Areas of Canada M. Lepage, J.W. Boulton, X. Qiu and M. Gauthier RWDI AIR Inc. C. di Cenzo Environment Canada, P&YR.

Statistical Post Processing - Using Reforecast to Improve GEFS Forecast Yuejian Zhu Hong Guan and Bo Cui ECM/NCEP/NWS Dec. 3 rd 2013 Acknowledgements:

An Investigation of the Mesoscale Predictability over the Northeast U.S.        Brian A. Colle, Matthew Jones, and Joseph Olson Institute for Terrestrial.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 Met Office Verification -status Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8- 11, 2007.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 1 - Simple Kalman filter – a “smoking gun” of shortages.

Low Pressure Systems vs High Pressure Systems. Let’s Compare Low Pressure Systems (L) High Pressure Systems (H)

Snow modelling using Surfex with the Crocus snow scheme for Norway Dagrun Vikhamar-Schuler 1 and Karsten Müller 2 1 MET.NO, 2 NVE.

Bias Correction of RTFDDA Surface Forecasts Presented by: Daran Rife National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Laboratory Boulder,

CWB Midterm Review 2011 Forecast Applications Branch NOAA ESRL/GSD.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of MODIS SST Utilizing a local WRF.

Applied Meteorology Unit 1 Observation Denial and Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model Leela R. Watson William H. Bauman.

Implementation of Terrain Resolving Capability for The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) Tai, Sheng-Lun 1, Yu-Chieng Liou 1,3, Juanzhen.

Statistical Evaluation of High-resolution WRF Model Forecasts Near the SF Bay Peninsula By Ellen METR 702 Prof. Leonard Sklar Fall 2014 Research Advisor:

Grid Point Models Surface Data.

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System 2013

Climate and Weather Section 2.3, p.33.

WindNinja Model Domain/Objective

Question 1 Given that the globe is warming, why does the DJF outlook favor below-average temperatures in the southeastern U. S.? Climate variability on.

Robert Conrick, Qi Zhong, and Cliff Mass

Winter storm forecast at 1-12 h range

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System 2017

Location, Location, Location

Global Weather Patterns

Do Now (10 min) Write in the title: “Weather: Temperature” Write in the objective: “Objective: Explain four factors that affect temperature, and demonstrate.

Status of the Regional OSSE for Space-Based LIDAR Winds – Feb01

Presentation transcript:

Surface parameters forecast in Vancouver and Whistler area - Verification of MC2v498 parallel runs Yan Shen University of British Columbia

Outline Reviews of MC2v498 at our group Verification of Surface temperature forecast in Vancouver and Whistler during Feb , 2005: Verification of surface wind speed forecast in Whistler area. Conclusions

Reviews of MC2v498 at UBC Installed in May 2004 From June-October, tested on monster Started in Nov 2004, running for MC2 sensitivity tests (&CMC) Started on Jan 1st 2005,running for Duke energy project. MC2 parallel runs performed from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2005 Started on March 3rd, running as our operational model

Parallel runs on 4 km grid resolution combining: Cascade files from MC2v km grid run FCREST surface scheme Kain-Fristch deep convective scheme Kong-Yau microphysics scheme (KFC&KY) Improved geophysicical file (from RPN) NEW UBC&CMC ; RWDI&CMC MC2 sensitivity tests (3rd test)

Preliminary results of parallel runs Compare MC2v498’s raw forecasts against MC2v491’s raw forecasts and observation (OBS) surface data(two EC stations) during Feb10-17, 2005.

VANCOUVER INT'L Latitude: 49° 12'N Longitude: 123° 10' W Elevation: 4.30m WHISTLER Latitude: 50°7'N Longitude: 122° 57' W Elevation: m Latitude Longitude Elevation Latitude Longitude Elevation Choose two locations : ( both are EC stations)

UBC 4 km domain Complex Terrain in Southern BC !

Verification of surface temperature forecast Use surface temperature forecasts from MC2 4 km operational and parallel runs Surface observation data: from EC web page

MC2V498 MC2V491 10/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver Mc2v498 is close to OBS

MC2v498 MC2v491 11/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver MC2v498 is close to OBS at day time MC2V491 is close to OBS at night

mc2v498 mc2v491 12/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver MC2v498 is cold, but warmer than MC2 v491

MC2v498 MC2v491 13/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver MC2 is cold

MC2v498MC2v491 14/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver MC2 is cold ! V498 is better at day time, v491 is better at night.

MC2v498 MC2v491 15/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver MC2v498 is close to OBS in Whistler In Vancouver, MC2v498 is better at day time,MC2v491 is better at night

MC2v498 MC2v491 16/02/2005

Whistler Vancouver Perfect MC2v498 is warmer at day time

Results for verification of surface temperature forecast MC2v498 has a warm bias near water. But it has a good performance in predicting the surface temperature in mountainous area ( need more verifications ). How to use Kalmen filter for MC2 finer grid run’s results in the future? Does Kalmen filter know day-time forecast or night-time forecast?

Verification of Surface wind speed forecast Use the case of Feb 11, Both MC2 finished 4 km and 2 km grid runs on that day. Compare surface wind speed forecasts with OBS hourly data in Whistler

MC2V498 4 km MC2v491 4km 4PST 10PST

MC2v498 4km MC2v491 4km 16PST 22PST

Parallel runs on 2 km grid combining: Cascade files from MC2v498 4 km grid run FCREST surface scheme Kain-Fristch deep convective scheme Kong-Yau microphysics scheme (KFC&KY) … Only completely finished with four days during this experiment of MC2 parallel runs

MC2v498 2 km MC2v491 2km 6PST 8PST

MC2v498 2km 12PST MC2v491 2km 10PST

MC2v498 2kmMC2v491 2km 14PST 16PST

Seems in this case : MC2v498 produces faster wind speed than MC2v491 in Mountainous area of BC ?

From OBS Hourly data between PST 0700 and 1700, the wind speed in Whistler is always equal to zero. What’s wrong??? (even Kalmen Filter forecast) Same location, same day…. Whistler

Our thought MC2 model always underestimate the wind speed. Really? (This problem might only exist near water or low flat surface).

Another Case 12/02/2005 Seems nothing is right if OBS data is right ? Whistler

Results for verification of surface temperature forecast It’s very difficult to accurately forecast surface wind speed in mountainous area of BC ( at least in EC Whistler station) Sometimes, Kalmen filter makes surface wind speed forecast worse !?

Optimistic idea for surface wind forecast Obtain more OBS data from mountainous area of BC? Some new OBS stations will be build up in Whistler area before 2008 (2010 winter Olympics issue). Use more advanced MC2&RPN physics package. Use other model initial data than NAM forecasts, (GEM or GFS) ? Produce half hour forecasts. Need more computer power and … Use more advanced Kalmen filter ( mountainous type).

Pessimistic idea Forget about surface wind speed forecast Don’t waste time on it. Few available OBS stations in BC mountainous area Pacific data void also affects the surface wind speed forecast in BC

END Thanks to Henryk and George for making weather maps and meteograms from MC2 parallel runs