Mobile Location Services: Market Strategies Ovum Report 2000 Part E: Market Development Scenarios Pasi Pekkinen Navinova Oy Navinova Oy

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP2 Key messages Availability of technology is a driverAvailability of technology is a driver Regulation is both a driver and barrierRegulation is both a driver and barrier Alternative solutions for network-based LBS existAlternative solutions for network-based LBS exist Size and characteristics of end-user market unprovenSize and characteristics of end-user market unproven Technology choice and business models remain unresolved for few yearsTechnology choice and business models remain unresolved for few years After resolution a short-lived golden ageAfter resolution a short-lived golden age

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP3 Enablers Packet data bearer servicesPacket data bearer services Development of m-Internet protocols and standardsDevelopment of m-Internet protocols and standards Standards allowing secure transactionsStandards allowing secure transactions Users’ increased familiarityUsers’ increased familiarity Standards for geo-coded infoStandards for geo-coded info New and repackaged contentNew and repackaged content More widely available m-Internet terminalsMore widely available m-Internet terminals

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP4 Drivers RegulationRegulation Widespread availability of fixed InternetWidespread availability of fixed Internet Automatically determined location is an attractive elementAutomatically determined location is an attractive element

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP5 Barriers Uncertainties in regulationUncertainties in regulation Privacy concernsPrivacy concerns Substitute solutionsSubstitute solutions Business model uncertaintiesBusiness model uncertainties

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP6 Uncertainties: Demand Existence of real demandExistence of real demand Acceptability of the quality of such servicesAcceptability of the quality of such services Users’ willingness to pay for automatic positioningUsers’ willingness to pay for automatic positioning Value of more precisely determined location than Cell IDValue of more precisely determined location than Cell ID

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP7 Uncertainties: Supply Business model needs to be resolvedBusiness model needs to be resolved If no clear winner in position measurement methods rise, operators may delay adoptionIf no clear winner in position measurement methods rise, operators may delay adoption If industry forced to deploy before a winner:If industry forced to deploy before a winner: –costs will be higher, application development may be fragmented, roaming less available

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP8 Alternative scenarios Two dimensions:Two dimensions: –size and scope of demand –level of business and technological integration

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP9 Most likely development Up to 2000Up to 2000 –main players automatic vehicle location vendors –proprietary technologies –high cost & limited functionality: few customers Emerging market Emerging market –new positioning methods proposed –new business models proposed –much unresolved, but a viable market created –new players prepare to enter the market

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP10 Most likely (2) Golden age Golden age –Technology competition is over –Business models are resolved –Supply dominated by fewer large and stable companies –Greater number of users Maturity 2005 onwardsMaturity 2005 onwards –location remains an important element in mobile services, but users take it more for granted –LCS decline relatively as new kind of services emerge

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP11 Alternative scenario Lower demand by consumers Lower demand by consumers –technical and commercial issues resolved –customers primarily business users –specialists develop services Silver age Silver age –prices are reduced –more generic applications –wider range of companies adopt services

Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services / PP12 Alternative scenario (2) 2005 onwards2005 onwards –more consumer oriented applications developed –primary focus in niches such as personal safety and vehicle protection systems