Sybil P. Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) Stockholm, Sweden Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si E. Mayorga A.F. Bouwman.

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Presentation transcript:

Sybil P. Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) Stockholm, Sweden Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si E. Mayorga A.F. Bouwman C. Kroeze J.A. Harrison A.H.W. Beusen G. Billen G. Van Drecht E. Dumont B.M. Fekete C. Vorosmarty J. Garnier

Coastal effects Sellman et al. 2007

Nutrient SourcesHydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si, C Removal Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds Input databases 0.5 o x 0.5 o >5000 watersheds globally STN-30

Nutrient Sources Natural N 2 -Fixation P Weathering Anthropogenic Non-Point Fertilizer (by crop type) N 2 -fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N Point Sewage (pop.; treatment level) Global Watersheds Water Runoff Precip. Intensity Land-use Slope Hydrology & Physical Factors Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use In-River N, P, Si, C Removal Nutrient Loading to Coastal Waters Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al Seitzinger et al Global NEWS Model

At river mouths, predict export of: Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds * DIC in prep. Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al Seitzinger et al Dissolved Particulate Inorganic Organic N DIN DON PN P DIP DOP PP C DIC * DOC POC Si DSi

Equation for DIN as example Yld F = Fe riv,F * [(RSpnt F + Rsdif ant,F ) + Rsdif nat,F Rsdif ant,DIN = Fe ws,DIN * WSdif ant,N + Ag fr * (f DIN (R nat ) * EC DIN ), where: Fe ws,DIN = e DIN * f DIN (R nat ) WSdif ant,N = WSdif fe,N + WSdif ma,N + WSdif fix,ant,N = WSdif dep,ant,N – WSdif ex,N ]

Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds Yangtze watershed Sub-basins global DIP Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed ~2005 > 5000 watersheds Yangtze watershed Sub-basins global DIP Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

Nutrient Sources Natural N 2 -Fixation P Weathering Anthropogenic Non-Point Fertilizer (by crop type) N 2 -fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N Point Sewage (pop.; treatment level) Global Watersheds Water Runoff Precip. Intensity Land-use Slope Hydrology & Physical Factors Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use In-River N, P, Si, C Removal Nutrient Loading to Coastal Waters Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al Seitzinger et al Global NEWS Model

Measured DOC yield (kg C km -2 yr -1 ) Modeled DOC yield (kg C km -2 yr -1 ) Measured DIN export (kg N basin -1 yr -1 ) Modeled DIN export (kg N basin -1 yr -1 ) Colorado Dnepr Susquehanna Gambia Ganges Rhine R 2 =0.88 Ganges Dumont et al. Harrison et al. Global Biogeochem Cycles 2005

River transport of DIN to coast kg N/km2/yr >5000 watersheds Seitzinger et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershedprovince watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

Yangtze river watershed annual 1970 – 2003 Yan et al GBC Atmos. N deposition Model Predicted Measured Total N input Fertilizer Manure N2-fixation Province level N input data River DIN Export

Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed ~2000 Yangtze watershedprovince watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5 o x0.5 o 0.5 o x0.5 o ~2010 Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

Hi resolution NEWS-DIP Sub-basin 0.5 o x 0.5 o Harrison et al GBC Measured data Model vs Data

NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield (kg P / km 2 / yr) NEWS-DIP-2005 NEWS-DIP-HD-2010 Harrison et al., GBC 2010 Basin Sub-basin

Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershedprovince watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5 o x0.5 o 0.5 o x0.5 o ~2010 Sub-basins California 1 km watershed ~2000 Scenarios – global

Measured DOC Yield (kg C / km 2 / yr) (Data courtesy of R. Dahlgren and USGS) Basin delineations: USGS Runoff: USGS Potential Runoff: DWR Land Use: Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) Concentration: Dahlgren ( ) r 2 validation = 0.80 n = 22 Harrison et al. In prep. NEWS DOC Yield (kg C / km 2 / yr)

Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershedprovince watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5 o x0.5 o 0.5 o x0.5 o ~2010 Sub-basins California various watershed ~2000 Scenarios – global 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed

Coastal Effects (algae blooms; anoxia; fisheries; etc.) Nutrient Export at River Mouth Future scenarios Nutrient Sources from Food and Energy Policy Options & Costs

Nutrient export trajectories Includes social, economic, policy, and ecological considerations / Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Worst Case Global Orchestration Better Case Adapting Mosaic Envir. Approachreactiveproactive Incomehighmedium Population Increaselowerhigher Fertilizer Usehighmoderate Nutrient Managementnot optimalefficient Meat Consumptionhighmoderate Sewage Treatment accessfullconstant % N removal highmoderate Specifics vary by country Bouwman et al & Van Drecht et al GBC Two scenarios

REFERENCE

Worst Case Global Orchestration Better Case Adapting Mosaic Envir. Approachreactiveproactive Incomehighmedium Population Increaselowerhigher Fertilizer Usehighmoderate Nutrient Managementnot optimalefficient Meat Consumptionhighmoderate Sewage Treatment accessfullconstant % N removal highmoderate Specifics vary by country Bouwman et al & Van Drecht et al GBC Two scenarios

Global Orchestration Adapting Mosaic Seitzinger et al GBC Change DIN river export Seitzinger et al GBC

Contribution to river DIN export South Asia Seitzinger et al. 2010, GBC How were improvements achieved? Sewage connectivity constant % Technological NOx controls Lower meat consumption Efficient management nitrogen in agriculture

Summary Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershedprovince watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5 o x0.5 o 0.5 o x0.5 o ~2010 Sub-basins California 1 km watershed ~2000 Scenarios – global 0.5 o x0.5 o watershed

Mayorga et al Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software Global Biogeochemical Cycles Special section Seitzinger et al. overview Bouwman et al. agriculture Van Drecht et al. urban wastewater Feteke et al. hydrology Harrison et al. hi resolution DIP Yan et al. Yangtze river Acknowlegements and for more details

Nutrient SourcesHydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si Removal Input Databases 0.5 o x 0.5 o > 5000 watersheds globally Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds

DIN export change w/ 2030 climate GO N Inputs w/ GO 2030 Climate Change DIN vs Water runoff change DIN change - Climate only Mayorga, Seitzinger in prep.

DIN export change GO N Inputs w/ GO 2030 Climate Change vs Global Orchestration Climate only Mayorga, Seitzinger in prep.

Effect of climate change only on DIN river export?