The eternal tension in statistics.... Between what you really really want (the population) but can never get to...

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

VI. Sampling: (Nov. 2, 4) Frankfort-Nachmias & Nachmias (Chapter 8 – Sampling and Sample Designs) King, Keohane and Verba (Chapter 4) Barbara Geddes

Advertisements

By:Heather Gubser Objective 26i

SECTION 1 CHAPTER 1. DATA What is Statistics? The science of collecting, organizing, and interpreting numerical facts, which we call data Data (def.)

How to survey data without adding bias.

1. Exams 2. Sampling Distributions 3. Estimation + Confidence Intervals.

1 Chapter 12 Inference About One Population Introduction In this chapter we utilize the approach developed before to describe a population.In.

Sample Data Population Inference A very common paradigm in statistical studies:

Sections – 1.4: Other Effective Sampling Methods – 1.5: Bias in Sampling – 1.6: The Design of Experiments General goals – Collect data effectively – Avoid.

Literary Digest Poll 1936 election: Franklin Delano Roosevelt vs. Alf Landon Literary Digest had called the election since 1916 Sample size: 2.4 million!

2007 會計資訊系統計學 ( 一 ) 上課投影片 1.1 Chapter One What is Statistics?

1. Estimation ESTIMATION.

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 1.1 Chapter One What is Statistics?

CSE 221: Probabilistic Analysis of Computer Systems Topics covered: Statistical inference (Sec. )

Announcements Homework 2 will be posted on the web by tonight.

The eternal tension in statistics.... Between what you really really want (the population) but can never get to...

HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS math courseware specialists Copyright © 2010 by Hawkes Learning Systems/Quant Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1 Statistics.

Copyright ©2009 Cengage Learning 1.1 Day 3 What is Statistics?

The eternal tension in statistics.... Between what you really really want (the population) but can never get to...

Statistical Inference: Which Statistical Test To Use? Pınar Ay, MD, MPH Marmara University School of Medicine Department of Public Health

By 2030, more than half the youth in the U.S. will be of a racial and/or ethnic minority.

4.2 Statistics Notes What are Good Ways and Bad Ways to Sample?

STA291 Statistical Methods Lecture 16. Lecture 15 Review Assume that a school district has 10,000 6th graders. In this district, the average weight of.

Homework Read pages Page 467: 1 – 16, 29 – 34, 37, 38, 59.

1.1 Chapter One What is Statistics?. 1.2 What is Statistics? “Statistics is a way to get information from data.”

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS Let’s do a little review :.

Chapter 1:Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data 1.1: How Can You Investigate Using Data? 1.2: We Learn about Populations Using Samples.

Statistics Chapter 1: Statistics, Data and Statistical Thinking.

DATA COLLECTION METHODS Sampling

Designing Social Inquiry week 4 I36005 Soohyung Ahn Case Study 1936 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION : Roosevelt VS Landon.

Statistical Inference: Making conclusions about the population from sample data.

Pitfalls of Surveys. The Literary Digest Poll 1936 US Presidential Election Alf Landon (R) vs. Franklin D. Roosevelt (D)

Chapter 10– Estimating Voter Preferences Statistics is the science of making decisions in the face of uncertainty. We use information gathered from a sample.

I'm thinking of a number. 12 is a factor of my number. What other factors MUST my number have?

7.4 – Sampling Distribution Statistic: a numerical descriptive measure of a sample Parameter: a numerical descriptive measure of a population.

Making Inferences. Sample Size, Sampling Error, and 95% Confidence Intervals Samples: usually necessary (some exceptions) and don’t need to be huge to.

Red yellow First Choice Second Choice red blue yellow red blue yellow red blue yellow With a partner on your board!!! You choose a colored cube and then.

Level of Knowledge *. Most Important News Source, 1959 – 2005.

STT 421 Day 7: September 28, 2015 September 28, 2015

What is a Confidence Interval?. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean The statistic estimates the population mean We want the sampling distribution.

Sampling Focus Questions- - What is sampling? - Why should we sample? - What is a reliable sample?

Review of Statistical Terms Population Sample Parameter Statistic.

Bias in Survey Sampling. Bias Due to Unrepresentative Samples A good sample is representative. This means that each sample point represents the attributes.

STATS IN THE REAL WORLD Statistics, Representation, and Interpretation.

Margin of Error S-IC.4 Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation.

The inference and accuracy We learned how to estimate the probability that the percentage of some subjects in the sample would be in a given interval by.

Sample Surveys. Terminologies Investigators usually want to generalize about a class of individuals. This class is called the population. For example,

Statistical Sampling Part I – Introduction. This video is designed to accompany pages in Making Sense of Uncertainty Activities for Teaching Statistical.

LOOKING AT SOME BASICS Can you tell the difference?

Intro to Probability and Statistics 1-1: How Can You Investigate Using Data? 1-2: We Learn about Populations Using Samples 1-3: What Role Do Computers.

Qualitative vs. Quantitative & Displaying Data. “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” –Benjamin Disraeli ( ) & popularized.

Using, Understanding, and Presenting Data Effectively

Limitations of Market Research

Sources of Error In Sampling

A very common paradigm in statistical studies:

Chapter Six Normal Curves and Sampling Probability Distributions

Sampling Distributions for a Proportion

Introductory Statistical Language

Sampling Population – any well-defined set of units of analysis; the group to which our theories apply Sample – any subset of units collected in some manner.

Everything You Need To Know About Public Opinion To Succeed In AP Gov

Sampling Distribution

Sampling Distribution

POINT ESTIMATOR OF PARAMETERS

Section 7.7 Introduction to Inference

From Simulations to the Central Limit Theorem

Chapter 7: Introduction to Sampling Distributions

COLLECTING STATISTICAL DATA

Keller: Stats for Mgmt&Econ, 7th Ed. What is Statistics?

Presentation transcript:

The eternal tension in statistics...

Between what you really really want (the population) but can never get to...

So you have to make do (with the sample) you can estimate the population, make educated guesses,

but bottomline is “you can never have the population”

An investigator usually wants to generalize about a class of individuals/things (the population) For example: in forecasting the results of elections, population is all eligible voters for the Furniture.com class group: all potential users of Furniture.com

Usually there are some numerical facts about the population (parameters) which you want to estimate You can do that by measuring the same aspect in the sample (statistic) Depending on the accuracy of your measurement, and how representative your sample is, you can make inferences about the population

The 1936 election: the literary digest poll Candidates: Democrat FD Roosevelt and Republican Alfred Landon The Literary Digest: had called the winner in every election since 1916 Its prediction: Roosevelt will get 43% polled 2.4 million people!

The election results The election result62 The Digest prediction43

I'm not an outlier; I just haven't found my distribution yet. --- Ronan Conroy