Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

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Presentation transcript:

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11 Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 15 April 2011

Outline UK and Europe surface conditions Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

UK Mean Temperature anomaly Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Met Office

UK Mean Temperature December: CET -0.7°C anomaly -5.3°C coldest since 1890 2nd coldest on record (since 1659) Winter (DJF): December dominates CET 2nd coldest since 1996 (2009/10 colder) Met Office

UK Precipitation anomaly (%) Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Met Office

UK December 2010 Met Office Chief Scientist’s report to Sir John Beddington, March 2011 www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/resilience

European surface air temperature November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 Mean temperature anomalies wrt 1981-2010 average KNMI, ENSEMBLES E-OBS data

European precipitation November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 Anomaly [mm/month] wrt 1981-2010 average KNMI, ENSEMBLES E-OBS data

Alpine snow Scandinavia Lack of snow after New Year Warm and dry conditions prevailed through Jan/Feb 2011 Scandinavia Cold + laying snow persisted throughout winter

Global surface air temperature (land) November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 KNMI, NCEP/CPC data Mean temperature anomalies wrt 1981-2010 average

Surface air temperature anomaly DJF 2009/10 DJF 2010/11 NOAA ESRL

Surface air temperature anomaly December 2009 December 2010 NOAA ESRL

Cold mid-latitudes, amid global warmth “Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature”, Hansen et al (2010) Monthly comparison, 2010 vs. previous years 2010 global average Ts was warmest on record – GISS data Contribution from El Niño – La Niña cycle Cooler in December 2010 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Hansen et al (2010)

NAO - AO - Solar minimum Stratospheric water vapour Stratospheric vortex QBO east Waves NAM latitude height NAO - Blocking AO - Planetary waves Importance of stratosphere increasingly recognised in last decade -> Include additional forcing processes in extended-range forecast models. Tropical Atlantic PNA Atlantic SST & sea ice Eurasian snow cover (October) El Niño

Summary UK and European conditions Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

250hPa wind and Geopotential Height Dec. Climatology December 2009 December 2010

250hPa vector wind November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 NOAA ESRL

250hPa geopotential height anomaly November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 NOAA ESRL

Teleconnection patterns North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Z500 Winter 2010/11 Arctic Oscillation AO Pmsl Pacific/North American PNA Z500 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Teleconnection patterns Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Blocking strength (Tibaldi & Monteni index) Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Jet Stream wind / Streamfunction anomaly December 2009 December 2010

Summary UK and European conditions Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

mid-November circulation change Beware November monthly averages! Hint that Pacific (PNA) leads Atlantic (NAO) change NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Surface air temperature – time evolution 01-30 November 2010 01-14 December 2010 01-15 November 2010 16-30 November 2010 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

250hPa height – hemispheric planetary wave pattern: weekly averages from early November to mid-December ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

250hPa streamfunction – global wave patterns: weekly averages from through November 2010 ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

250hPa streamfunction – precursor pattern for negative NAO: Woollings et al (2008) 250hPa meridional wind ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

Summary UK and European conditions Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

Niño region SST anomalies NAO phase Early winter Late winter moderate El Niño + - La Niña NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

El Niño, 2009/10 SST anomaly DJF 09/10 OLR anomaly DJF 09/10 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

La Niña, 2010/11 SST anomaly DJF 10/11 OLR anomaly DJF 10/11 Nino 3.4 / 4 SST similar to previous cold events, but earlier start? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

Tropical SST evolution NOAA Climate Prediction Center/NCEP

2010 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL) DJF 09/10 Sept 2010 MAM 2010 Oct 2010 JJA 2010 Nov 2010 NOAA ESRL

2010/11 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL) Sept 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 NOAA ESRL

Tropical evolution NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Atmospheric response to SSTs is strong (SOI - mainly Tahiti?) and OLR? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

Tropical evolution NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Trends in low level zonal winds?? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

Tropical evolution: 5N-5S NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

Tropical evolution: 5N-5S pentad data NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

Tropical evolution: 5N-5S pentad data Weak MJO activity except end of September. Relatively stationary convective and equatorial response to SST NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

OLR anomalies (monthly) September 2010 December 2010 October 2010 January 2011 November 2010 February 2011 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

200hPa streamfunction anomalies (monthly) September 2010 December 2010 October 2010 January 2011 November 2010 February 2011 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

SST: comparison with previous La Niñas NOAA ESRL

ENSO evolution – previous events SOI versus Nino 3.4 – DJF - main monsoon season KNMI Climate Explorer

ENSO evolution – previous events SOI versus Nino 3.4 – SON - pre-monsoon KNMI Climate Explorer

Conclusions / Summary Second cold winter in Europe & across mid-latitudes …but warmer late winter in Europe Cold onset: mid-November circulation change …possible trigger from (tropical) Pacific Strong La Niña, throughout (northern) Autumn + Winter …large scale response varies through season Similarities to and differences from 2009/10 winter

- questions? -

2010 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL) Sept Oct Nov. 1-15 Nov. 16-30 Dec. 1-15 Dec. 16-31 NOAA ESRL

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