An Unusual Pathway to Oceanic Cyclogenesis Linking “Perfect Storms” in the North Atlantic Ocean Jason M. Cordeira and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The Structural Evolution of African Easterly Waves Matthew A. Janiga and Chris Thorncroft DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES University.

Advertisements

Recurving Typhoons as Precursors to an Early Season Arctic Outbreak over the Continental U.S. Heather M. Archambault, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser.

Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) from an African Easterly Wave Stefan Cecelski 1 and Dr. Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University.

Chap. 5 Conceptual models of synoptic Tropical disturbances in summer Definition of tropical disturbances : A discrete tropical weather system of apparently.

Niels Woetmann Nielsen Danish Meteorological Institute

Midlatitude Cyclones Equator-to-pole temperature gradient tilts pressure surfaces and produces westerly jets in midlatitudes Waves in the jet induce divergence.

Midlatitude cyclones. Identify and describe the North American air masses that influence the weather patterns for Lexington Differentiate between frontal.

Extra-Tropical Cyclones and Anticyclones, Chapter 10

Analysis of Precipitation Distributions Associated with Two Cool-Season Cutoff Cyclones Melissa Payer, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric.

A Multiscale Analysis of the Inland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Danny (1997) within an Equatorward Jet-Entrance Region Matthew S. Potter, Lance.

General Circulation and Kinetic Energy

EASTERLY WAVE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OVER WEST AFRICA AND THE EAST ATLANTIC Matthew A. Janiga Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University.

Geog 166: weather systems Prof. Leila M. V. Carvalho.

ATM S 542 Synoptic Meteorology Overview Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington, Seattle, USA Vertical structure of the.

Upper-level Mesoscale Disturbances on the Periphery of Closed Anticyclones Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr. and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany, State University.

A Multiscale Examination of a Mesoscale Cyclogenesis Event in a Polar Air Stream Tom Galarneau, Dan Keyser, and Lance Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric.

Strong Polar Anticyclone Activity over the Northern Hemisphere and an Examination of the Alaskan Anticyclone Justin E. Jones, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel.

Unexpectedly Heavy Near- Coastal Precipitation Due to Mesoscale Features Induced by a Landfalling Tropical Storm Alan F. Srock, Lance F. Bosart, John Molinari.

Chapter 11: Winter Weather Heavy snowfall in St. Louis is typically associated with a developing low pressure system To examine snowfall within a developing.

Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University.

The Use of Ensemble and Anomaly Data during the May 2006 New England Record Rain Event Neil A. Stuart Richard Grumm Walter Drag NOAA/NWS Albany,

A Diagnostic Analysis of a Difficult- to-Forecast Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department.

An Examination of the Tropical System – Induced Flooding in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania in 2004.

Typhoons and tropical cyclones

Hurricane Juan (2003): A Diagnostic and Compositing Study Ron McTaggart-Cowan 1, Eyad Atallah 2, John Gyakum 2, and Lance Bosart 1 1 University of Albany,

A Multi-Scale Analysis of the Perfect Storms of 1991 Jason M. Cordeira and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at.

Here a TC, There a TC, Everywhere a TC: The "Spin" on the Active Part of the North Atlantic 2008 TC Season Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and.

Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic during the 2005–06 and 2006–07 Cool Seasons Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department.

The Extratropical Transitions of Danielle and Earl (1998) Ron McTaggart-Cowan J.R. Gyakum, M.K. Yau.

Predecessor Rain Events in Tropical Cyclones Matthew R. Cote 1, Lance F. Bosart 1, Daniel Keyser 1, and Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr 2 1 Department of Earth.

Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Alicia M. Bentley, Daniel Keyser, and Lance F. Bosart University.

Cyclogenesis: Then (1979) and Now (2014) Sanders and Gyakum (1980) Bosart (1981) acts/bombogenesis.html.

Where Do the Hurricanes Come From?. Introduction A tropical cyclone is a rapidly- rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, strong.

Multiscale Analyses of Tropical Cyclone-Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997) Matthew S. Potter, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser.

Visualizing Physical Geography Copyright © 2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers Inc. Chapter 6 Weather Systems.

By: Michael Kevin Hernandez Key JTWC ET onset JTWC Post ET  Fig. 1: JTWC best track data on TC Sinlaku (2008). ECMWF analysis ET completion ECMWF analysis.

Benjamin A. Schenkel Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser University at Albany, State University of New York.

Benjamin A. Schenkel University at Albany, State University of New York, and Robert E. Hart, The Florida State University 6th Northeast.

Class #18 Wednesday, February 18, Class #18: Wednesday, February 18 Waves aloft Introduction to Oceanography Ocean Currents.

1 IPV and the Dynamic Tropopause John W. Nielsen-Gammon Texas A&M University

The Modulation of Tropopause- level Wave Breaking by the Madden Julian Oscillation Richard Moore 1, Olivia Martius 2, Thomas Spengler 2 & Huw Davies 2.

27 Sept Future WorkResultsMethodologyMotivation Chip HelmsComposite Analyses of Tropical Convective Systems1 Composite Analyses of Tropical Convective.

COMET Feb. 20, 2002 IPV and the Dynamic Tropopause John W. Nielsen-Gammon1 Outline PV basics Seeing the world through PV Waves and vortices Nonconservation.

Tropical Transition in the Eastern North Pacific: Sensitivity to Microphysics Alicia M. Bentley ATM May 2012.

Dynamic tropopause analysis; What is the dynamic tropopause?

Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Alicia M. Bentley University at Albany, SUNY Cyclone Research.

Title Climatology of High Lapse Rates and Associated Synoptic-Scale Flow Patterns over North America and the Northeast US(1974  2007) Jason M. Cordeira*,

A Case Study of the 6 August hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone Eric Adamchick University at Albany, State University of New York Albany, New York.

Chapter 9: Mid-Latitude Cyclones. Introduction mid-latitude cyclones  produce winds as strong as some hurricanes but different mechanisms contain well.

Benjamin A. Schenkel University at Albany, State University of New York, and Robert E. Hart, The Florida State University 4 th.

An Investigation of Model-Simulated Band Placement and Evolution in the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. Banded Snowstorm David Novak NOAA/ NWS Eastern.

Deep Convection, Severe Weather, and Appalachian Lee/Prefrontal Troughs Daniel B. Thompson, Lance F. Bosart and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric.

Analysis of Typhoon Tropical Cyclogenesis in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Suzana J. Camargo and Adam H. Sobel.

Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Alicia M. Bentley, Daniel Keyser, and Lance F. Bosart University.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 6 Air-Sea Interaction.

Relationships between Large-Scale Regime Transitions and Major Cool-Season Precipitation Events in the Northeast U.S. Heather M. Archambault Daniel Keyser.

The “Perfect Storms” of 1991: Large Scale Antecedent Conditions Lance F. Bosart and Jason M. Cordeira Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University.

Potential Vorticity Streamers and Tropical Cyclogenesis During the 2007 North Atlantic Hurricane Season T. J. Galarneau 1, L. F. Bosart 1, and R. McTaggart-Cowan.

Subtropical Potential Vorticity Streamer Formation and Variability in the North Atlantic Basin Philippe Papin, Lance F. Bosart, Ryan D. Torn University.

The “Perfect Storms” of 1991:

ATM S 542 Synoptic Meteorology Overview

Impact of North Atlantic hurricanes on episodes of intense rainfall over the Mediterranean Florian Pantillon1,2 Jean-Pierre Chaboureau1 and Evelyne.

32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Michael S. Fischer and Brian H. Tang

The “Perfect Storms” of 1991:

MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES

The Course of Synoptic Meteorology

Downstream Development and Kona Low Genesis

The Course of Synoptic Meteorology

Presentation transcript:

An Unusual Pathway to Oceanic Cyclogenesis Linking “Perfect Storms” in the North Atlantic Ocean Jason M. Cordeira and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY NROW IX 7-8 November 2007 Supported by: NSF Grant ATM

The “Perfect Storm” of Motivation(1/2) Oct29-Oct28-Oct27-Oct31-Oct Buoy Max. Wave Height Canadian moored buoys Nova Scotia Strong winds –67 kt Chatham, MA –55 kt Blue Hill Observatory Coastal flooding / High waves –30 m Southeast of Nova Scotia (see below) –8 m offshore MA Sig. Wave Height Wind Speed

The “Perfect Storm” of Motivation(2/2) Subsequent to the development of the Perfect Storm (PS1) a second strong cyclone (PS2) formed along the surface warm front in a region of deep moist convection (dmc)… L PS2 moved into the North Atlantic where it interacted with an upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly and merged with an existing cyclone… dmc Tropical moisture MSLP:  50 hPa / 24 hours Hurricane Grace

Outline I.Brief large-scale overview II.PS1: MSLP/PV Continuity III.PS1: Intensification IV.PS2: MSLP Continuity V.PS2: Development and PV Continuity VI.PS2: Analysis of rapid deepening phase VII.Summarizing Analysis and Conclusions VIII.Future Work and Thoughts PS1 / Perfect Storm 1 PS2 / Perfect Storm 2 HG / Hurricane Grace PV / Potential Vorticity DT / Dynamic Tropopause (2.0 PVU) MSLP / Mean Sea Level Pressure All plots:  ECMWF-ERA40

The “Perfect Storms” of Research PS3 PS2 PS1 HG Unique Track Heavy Snow Role of HG Unique Track Tropical Transition Development from PS1 Rapid Deepening This presentation will focus on PS2: Development from PS1 and rapid deepening

Brief large-scale flow evolution 15  25 Oct25  04 Oct/Nov 500-hPa Geopotential height and anomaly (dam) PSs -Large-scale flow reconfiguration manifested by time-mean 500-hPa flow and the PNA index -Meridional amplification of the NA flow pattern

PS1 -MSLP Continuity PS1 Hurricane Grace 29 Oct 00Z 30 Oct 00Z 26/00 27/00 28/00 29/00 30/00 31/00 01/00 02/ hPa Backward Trajectory MSLP  36h  72h Ending 30 Oct 12Z  36h

PS1 -PV Anomaly Continuity 29/00Z 29/12Z 30/00Z A C’ B PV1 Merger of C’ and D Fracture of B  C,D Fracture of C  C’,E C D PVHG Merger of PVHG and PV1 E DT  (K),  (  s -1 )

PS1 -Intensification(1/3) 29 October: 00Z 12Z 850 hPa  (K), Wind Barb (kt), 2-D Frontogenesis (K km -1 3h -1 ) Frontogenesis Scale: Hurricane GracePS1

PS1 -Intensification(2/3) 30 October: 00Z 12Z 850 hPa  (K), Wind Barb (kt), 2-d Frontogenesis (K km -1 3h -1 ) Frontogenesis Scale: PS1

PS1 -Intensification(3/3) 850 hPa Height (dam),  (  s -1 ), Wind barb (kt) 29/00Z29/12Z30/00Z Hurricane GracePS1

The “Perfect Storms” of MSLP Continuity PS1 PS2 Hurricane Grace 29/00 30/00 31/00 01/00 26/00 27/00 28/00 29/00 31/00 01/00 02/00 Backward Trajectory 01/00Z 999 hPa 949 hPa 31/1130  36h  72h

PS2 - Development A. 1.Intense warm frontogenesis 2.Southerly moisture transport B. 3.Strong low-level vorticity generation. 4.Strong deformation zone Northeast Next: look at the role of deep moist convection in strengthening the low-level cyclonic vorticity maximum.

PS2 - Development (deep moist convection) 850 hPa Winds A A’ PV1 A A’ GIBBS VIS 29/12Z Take N  S cross section across surface warm front

Frontogenesis [K km -1 3h -1 ], θ [K], ω [μb s -1 ],  [  s -1 ] AA’ 925 hPa θ e 340K PS2 - Development (deep moist convection) 29/12Z Warm / Moist Cold / Dry Ascending tropical air originating from H. Grace. Deep moist convection along surface warm front  latent heat release Diabatic heating  PV redistribution and low-level vorticity generation

 e [K], θ [K], ω [μb s -1 ],  [  s -1 ] AA’ PS2 - Development (deep moist convection) 29/12Z Warm / Moist Cold / Dry Ascending tropical air originating from H. Grace. Deep moist convection along surface warm front  latent heat release Diabatic heating  PV redistribution and low-level vorticity generation

PS2 - Development (low-level vorticity generation) Diabatic heating: 1.generates a low-level positive PV anomaly 2.erodes upper tropospheric PV Low-level PV anomaly: 1.+  anomaly 2.+  anomaly Upper-level PV anomaly: 1.  anomaly 2.  anomaly Adapted: Martin 2006

A C’ B PV1 Merger of C’ and D Fracture of B  C,D C D PVHG Merger of PVHG and PV Perfect Storm 2 - PV Anomaly Continuity PV Anomaly E:  Fracture from C  Modest cyclogenesis to the west of GB (980 hPa) PV Anomaly F:  Arctic origin  Into North Atlantic behind “E”. How did PS2 respond to “F”? Recall:  PS2 formed as a low- level diabatically generated/enhanced vortex. F E PV2 Merger of E and F Fracture of C  C’,E Fracture of F 24 25

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) 29/12Z 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F NS

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F 29/18Z NS

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F E 30/00Z NS

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F E 30/06Z NWSE

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F E 30/12Z WE

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F E 30/18Z NS

PS2 - Rapid deepening MSLP 10/2910/3010/3111/0111/02 PV (PVU),  (  s -1 ),  (K) DT  (K),  (  s -1 ) F F E 31/00Z NWSE

Summary / Conclusions PS1 formed in confluent air streams representing midlatitude and tropical (HG) source regions. –Trajectory analysis and PV continuity 500-hPa Backward Trajectory Ending 30 Oct 12Z  36h  72h  36h

Deep moist convection along the surface warm front produced intense diabatic heating –PV redistribution and low-level PV generation –Strong low-level vorticity maximum - PS2 Summary / Conclusions 850 Z (dam),  (  s -1 ) dmc Tropical moisture PS1 Schematic L PV1

. Strong tropospheric deformation steered PS1 westward and PS2 eastward into North Atlantic. Summary / Conclusions PS1PS2 850 hPa Z (dam),  (  s -1 ), Wind barb (kt)DT  (K) and Wind (kt),  (  s -1 ) PV1 F

. PS2 phases with upper-level PV anomaly F of Arctic origin –MSLP decreases 50 hPa / 24 hours Summary / Conclusions 30/12Z PV, ,  MSLP 10/29 10/3010/31 11/01 11/02 DT , L.L.  F F E

Thoughts…. What happens without Hurricane Grace? –Limited tropical moisture and low-level vorticity –How much deep moist convection results? –What is the resulting strength of PS1? –What is the resulting strength of PS2? Comments? Questions?